Post on 26-Aug-2020
To: Town Council and Vail Economic Advisory Council From: Ralf Garrison, DestiMetrics Date: December 16, 2014 Subject: Mountain Travel Market Update
I. BACKGROUND Ralf Garrison will give an update on market conditions in the mountain resort industry to the Town Council, Vail Economic Advisory Council and the community.
II. ACTION REQUESTED OF COUNCIL Listen to the presentation and have an opportunity to ask questions of DestiMetrics. ATTACHMENTS Mountain Travel Market Update December 16, 2014
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Presented by Ralf Garrison
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Vail Town Council
Vail Economic Advisory CouncilMarket Update ~ Summer Wrap Up ~ Winter Outlook
Who We Are…
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Destination Travel Marketing Services since 1984
1. Introduction
2. Situation Synopsis
3. Market Update - Econometrics
3. Summer 2014 Review
4. Winter 2014-15 Outlook
5. Discussion
Index
3Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346
MTNWEST
• Aspen
• Avon, Colorado
• Breckenridge
• Beaver Creek
• Copper
• Gunnison/Crested Butte
• Jackson Hole
• Keystone
• Mt Bachelor
• Mammoth Lakes
• North Lake Tahoe
• Snowmass
• Steamboat
• Park City Area
• Summit County, CO
• Telluride
• Vail
• Winter Park
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Antlers at Vail
Arrabelle at Vail Square
Destination Resorts Vail
Vail Cascade Condos
Vail Cascade Resort & Spa
Evergreen Lodge at Vail
Four Seasons Resort Vail
Lion Square Lodge
Lodge at Lionshead
Lodge Tower
Manor Vail Resort
Montaneros
Sitzmark Lodge
Sonnenalp Resort of Vail
The Sebastian
The Wren
Tivoli Lodge
Vail International
Vail Mountain Lodge
Vail Racquet Club
Vail Spa Condominiums
Vail Marriott
The Lodge at Vail
The Ritz-Carlton Residences
Reports with data as of
November 30, 2014 represent:
24 properties representing 2,486 units
63% of total community census
Vail Participation
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1. Introduction
2. Situation Synopsis
3. Market Update - Econometrics
3. Summer 2014 Review
4. Winter 2014-15 Outlook
5. Discussion
Index
7Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346
8
Situation Assessment
Conditions which impact your
ability to do business over
which you have no
direct control.
Consumerism
Demographic Disparity
• Age Wave / Gender /Race
Mobile, Wearable Tech
Sharing Generation
Caution: Fragile, Fickle
Attractions
Destination Magnets
Ski/Board: Flat at 57m
Efforts to Grow/Retain
Summer: More Attractions
Growing Faster
on Smaller Base
Occasion Travel - Up
Conference - Down
Lodging
Key for Destinations
Hot, Warm, Cold…
Aging…
Rent By Owner: Sharing Economy Disintermediation
Caution: Regulations
1. Introduction
2. Situation Synopsis
3. Market Update - Econometrics
3. Summer 2014 Review
4. Winter 2014-15 Outlook
5. Discussion
Index
12Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
17,828
5.8%
88.7
Dow Jones
Confidence
Unemployment
Confidence, The Dow & UnemploymentJan. ‘07 – November ‘14
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Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com Info@destimetrics.com 303.-722-7346 14
U.S. National Unemployment Rate
January 2008-November 2014
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Job
Cre
atio
n (
1,00
0's)
Nat
ion
al U
nem
plo
ymen
t R
ate
(%)
Jobs Created (1,000's)
National Unemployment Rate (%)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Housing Equity on the Rise
15
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jun-…
Aug-…
Oct-…
Dec-…
Feb-…
Apr-…
Jun-…
Aug-…
Oct-…
Dec-…
Feb-…
Apr-…
Jun-…
Aug-…
Oct-…
Dec-…
Feb-…
Apr-…
Jun-…
Aug-…
Oct-…
Dec-…
Feb-…
Apr-…
Jun-…
Aug-…
Oct-…
Dec-…
Feb-…
Apr-…
Jun-…
Aug-…
Oct-…
Dec-…
Feb-…
Apr-…
Jun-…
Aug-…
Oct-…
Dec-…
Feb-…
Apr-…
Jun-…
Aug-…
Oct-…
Dec-…
Feb-…
Apr-…
Jun-…
Aug-…
S&P / Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index(March 2000 = 100)
Jun
e '0
6:
18
9
Mar
ch '1
2:
13
4 p
ts
Sep
t'1
4:1
68
pts
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U.S. Dollar Real Foreign Exchange RateJan ‘10 – Oct ‘14
60.00
65.00
70.00
75.00
80.00
85.00
90.00
95.00
100.00
105.00
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14
Ind
ex (
Mar
ch 1
973=
100)
Source: Federal Reserve. Results reflect US dollar against seven major currencies (real index, i.e. inflation-adjusted).
1. Introduction
2. Situation Synopsis
3. Market Update - Econometrics
3. Summer 2014 Review
4. Winter 2014-15 Outlook
5. Discussion
Index
17Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346
18
Year over Year% Change in
NATIONALINDUSTRY-WIDE Vail
Occupancy
ADR
RevPAR
Summer 2014May – October
6% 4%
4%
11%
9%
13%
15%
4%
5%
5%
3%
7%
6%
2%
6%5%
6%
7%
6%6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
May 13 vs May 12 Jun 13 vs Jun 12 Jul 13 vs Jul 12 Aug 13 vs Aug 12 Sept 13 vs Sept 12 Oct 13 vs Oct 12 Summer Total
% C
han
ge in
Occ
up
. Rat
e &
AD
R
Percent Chg in Occupancy YTD: 2013 vs 2012
Percent Chg in ADR YTD: 2013 vs 2012
Data as of October 31, 2014
19
Market DemandIndustry Wide Summer 2014
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1. Introduction
2. Situation Synopsis
3. Market Update - Econometrics
3. Summer 2014 Review
4. Winter 2014-15 Outlook
5. Discussion
Index
20Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346
56% of revenue “on the books” as of 10/31/2015
56%
68% 76%73%
37%
58%
31%
50%
56% 56%
40%
11%
41%
33%
49%53% 52%
36%
10%
39%
-5%
1%5%
7%
13% 13%
6%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
November December January February March April Winter Total
Occ
up
ancy
Rat
e &
% C
hg
in O
ccu
p R
ate
Data as of November 30, 2014
Vail OccupancyWinter 2014/15
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Industry:
$178
$578
$509
$494
$533
$314
$477
$161
$497
$464
$458 $4
79
$223
$421
$549
$478 $4
99
$493
$233
$443
11%
16%
10%
8%
11%
40%
13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
November December January February March April Winter Total
Per
cen
t Ch
ang
e in
AD
R
Ave
rage
Dai
ly R
ate
$
Data as of November 30, 2014
Vail Average Daily RateWinter 2014/15
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Historic On the books
Industry:
$56
$288
$283
$278
$215
$34
$195
$53
$245
$246
$240
$171
$22
$163
$308 $3
24
$380
$360
$86
$255
5%
17%15% 16%
26%
58%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
November December January February March April Winter Total
Per
cen
t Ch
ang
e in
Rev
PA
R
Re
ven
ue
Pe
r A
vaila
ble
Ro
om
$
Data as of November 30, 2014
Vail RevPARWinter 2014/15
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Historic On the books
Industry:
-4.8
%
0.8
%
4.8
% 7.2
%
13
.1%
12
.7%
5.6
%
10
.8%
16
.5%
9.6
%
7.8
%
11
.2%
40
.3%
13
.3%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Nov 14 vs Nov 13 Dec 14 vs Dec 13 Jan 15 vs Jan 14 Feb 15 vs Feb 14 Mar 15 vs Mar 14 Apr 15 vs Apr 14 Winter Total
% C
han
ge in
Occ
up
ancy
/ A
DR
Percent Change in YTD Occ. Rate
Percent Change in YTD ADR
Data as of November 30, 2014
24
Vail Market DemandWinter 2014/15
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7%
12%
6%
16%
7%
22%
10%
7% 7%
5% 5% 5%
18%
6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Nov 14 vs Nov 13 Dec 14 vs Dec 13 Jan 15 vs Jan 14 Feb 15 vs Feb 14 Mar 15 vs Mar 14 Apr 15 vs Apr 14 Winter Total
% C
han
ge in
Occ
up
. Rat
e &
AD
R
Percent Chg in Occupancy YTD: 2014/15 vs 2013/14
Percent Chg in ADR YTD: 2014/15 vs 2013/14
Preliminary Data as of November 30, 2014
25
Industry Market DemandWinter 2014/15
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31%
50%
56%
56%
40%
11%
47%
47%
55%
54%
46%
13%
31%
47%
54%
50%
37%
13%
30%
44% 4
6%
48%
33%
12%
26%
44% 45%
47%
31%
11%
23%
42% 43%
46%
28%
9%
21%
41% 4
2%
45%
25%
8%
19%
40%
42%
38%
24%
7%
19%
38%
40%
37%
23%
7%
19%
35%
38%
34%
21%
7%
18%
35%
31% 32%
20%
5%
17%
34%
30%
32%
18%
4%
17%
34%
29%
29%
17%
4%
16%
33%
27%
24%
15%
4%
21%
39%
40%
38%
25%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15
Occ
up
any
Rat
e %
Vail
Other Individual Destinations
All Destination Aggregate
Historic On the Books
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26
Vail Multi-Destination Comparative Occupancy
November 2014-April 2015
Preliminary Data as of November 30, 2014
Vail 7 Year Trend Index to 2007/08Winter Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR
28
-14.9%-17.9%
-12.3%
-7.7%
-3.0%
8.5%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
'07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08
% Chg Revenue vs 2007/08
Industry 7 Year Trend Index to 2007/08Winter Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR
29
-22.4%-25.0%
-19.1%-17.8%
-10.5%
-5.3%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
'07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08
% Chg Revenue vs 2007/08
WEATHER
Which is Most Reliable?
• Economic Forecasts?
• Weather Forecasts?
Wild Cards
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31
Mapping our journey: Waypoints toward new realities
32
Thank You For Your Support!
Ralf Garrisonrgarrison@DestiMetrics.com
Discussion