TMAW year in review and annual awards

Bill Dennison

November 12–13, 2008U.S. Geological Survey

Baltimore, MD

Input to CBP Health and Restoration report

Updates for 2007–2008:• Water clarity• Dissolved oxygen• Chlorophyll a

Completed annual communication cycle

Summer review features prominently on CBP website

Released 2007 Report Card• 2nd year of the report card

• Wider dissemination

Generated ecological forecast

Repeat of previous years:

• Anoxia = Poor conditions (1.7 ± 1.27 km3) • Hypoxia = Poor conditions (9.9 km3)

• Microcystis = Low to

moderate severity

Added Prorocentrum forecast

Heroes: Don Scavia, Dave Jasinski, Peter Tango, and Jon Anderson

Resolved Total Suspended Solids (TSS) issue

• Issue: Discontinuity of statistical properties (i.e. apparent step-trend) observed in the TSS data.

• Outcome:– “No smoking gun”– Likely methodological transition in VA

mainstem sample analysis.

Heroes: Michael Williams, Tish Robertson, and Jeni Keisman

Explored water clarity decline

Heroes: Claire Buchanan, Bill Romano, Renee Karrh, and Mike Lane

• Decline in mainstem Bay and lower reaches of tributaries

• 1980s: 30 to 40% of goal• 200s: 10 to 20% of goal

• Newsletter underway

Contributions to Estuarine Research Federation meeting

• Members of TMAW were well-represented at ERF in Providence, RI (Nov 2007)

• Range of topics:– Phytoplankton IBI– Cyanobacteria– Picnoclines– Health index / Indicators, – Water clarity, forecasting etc

Chesapeake Bay Phytoplankton Index of Biotic Integrity by Salinity Regime

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Heroes: all of TMAW

• Facilitated and edited feasibility report for 4D interpolation for Chesapeake Bay

• Designed and programmed fortran module for DO and Chl a criteria assessment for Bay Program’s estuarine water quality model

• Worked collaboratively on a comprehensive review of potential attainment of water clarity thresholds

• Implemented Chesapeake Bay interpolator to calculate hypoxic and anoxic volumes

Additional impacts/projects

Heroes: Jeni Keisman and Jake Goodwin

Future for TMAWTasks:• More effective feedback to management:

– Finer spatial and temporal scales

– Ability to measure/track incremental improvements

– Redesign monitoring (STAC and MASC feedback)

– Feedback on what BMP working / not working

• Water clarity decline (Long-term trends: Gang of “N”)• Improved communication and dissemination

• regime shift : picoplankton and others• Existing commitments: report card, health and

restoration report

Logistics:• CBP restructure transition• Initiate joint TMAW – Non-tidal workgroup meetings

Old Chesapeake Bay Program

Tidal

Monitoring

Analysis

Workgroup

Data AnalysisWorkGroup

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Shed Dawg, CBP Dawg’s brother

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New and Improved Chesapeake Bay Program

Monitoring&Modeling

• Making

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• Silly

• Conclusions

New and Improved Chesapeake Bay Program

Magnificant&Marvelous

• Making

• Atrocious &

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• Conclusions

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who had of data.

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and they got from their colleagues, who said

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But the of this

forecasting effort was the

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resulted.

2008 Forecast Awards

For the we’re so bad, we quit forecasting logic of JJ Orth,

“Let’s quit while we’re behind SAV

forecast award”

X

2008 Forecast Awards

For the wide error bar logic of Dave Jasinski,

“Let’s cover all contingencies anoxia

forecast award”

2008 Forecast Awards

For the can’t get any worse than last year logic of Don Scavia,

“Let’s try, try again hypoxia forecast

award”

2008 Forecast Awards

For the fuzzy logic of Jon Anderson,

“Let’s roll the fuzzy dice for the Prorocentrum forecast award”

2008 Forecast Awards

For the no logic of Peter Tango,

“Let’s see if we can get it wrong it every single time forecast award”

Gnarly Head Award

• Peter Tango

• Routinely attempts to tackle gnarly problems even when he should know better

Gollywobbler Award

• Jeni Keisman

• Enhancing TMAW capacity all while keeping her dissertation alive

Herding Cats Award

• Jake Goodwin

• Managing academic and agency personnel who randomly stray off (and sometimes bite or scratch)

2007 Report Card Awards

• Maryland and Virginia sampling teams– For sampling year round in all conditions– For recording and checking data for

precision and accuracy – For collecting more data/person than

anywhere known– For processing samples and delivering

them to analytical laboratories in a timely manner

2008 Report Card Awards

• Maryland and Virginia sampling teams– For sampling year round in all conditions– For recording and checking data for

precision and accuracy – For collecting more data/person than

anywhere known– For processing samples and delivering

them to analytical laboratories in a timely mannerA

2008 Report Card Awards

• Maryland and Virginia data analysts– For recording and checking large data

streams and highlighting issues as they develop

– For managing large and complex database– For analyzing data for status and trends– For delivering data in a timely manner for

multiple requests

2007 Report Card Awards

• Maryland and Virginia data analysts– For recording and checking large data

streams and highlighting issues as they develop

– For managing large and complex database– For analyzing data for status and trends– For delivering data in a timely manner for

multiple requests A

2007 Report Card Awards

• Report card team– Analyzing past 20+years of data– Rapid turnaround– Feeding communication team (maps, time

courses, etc.)– Linking Bay health index to land use– Applying analysis to 2010 Trust Fund

2007 Report Card Awards

• Report card team– Analyzing past 20+years of data– Rapid turnaround– Feeding communication team (maps, time

courses, etc.)– Linking Bay health index to land use– Applying analysis to 2010 Trust Fund A

2007 Report Card Awards

• Communication team– Media event planning and execution– Quality graphics and printed materials – Developing web materials including on line

graphics– Help scientists frame questions and tell

stories

2007 Report Card Awards

• Communication team– Media event planning and execution– Quality graphics and printed materials – Developing web materials including on line

graphics– Help scientists frame questions and tell

storiesA

2007 Report Card Awards

• Sampling, analysis, report card and communication teams– For accelerating data analyses without losing

quality– For producing multiple products throughout the

year– For recording and checking data for precision and

accuracy – For collecting, analyzing and interpreting huge

amounts of data– For effectively elevating the public conversation

about Chesapeake Bay

2007 Report Card Awards

• Sampling, analysis, report card and communication teams– For accelerating data analyses without losing

quality– For producing multiple products throughout the

year– For recording and checking data for precision and

accuracy – For collecting, analyzing and interpreting huge

amounts of data– For effectively elevating the public conversation

about Chesapeake Bay A+

Group Photo