Post on 24-Feb-2016
description
TIMBER PRODUCTS OUTPUTWHERE WE WANT TO GO AND HOW TO GET THERE
OUTLINE
Future Vision
Current Steps Towards Vision
Plan for Next Steps
Future Options
FUTURE VISION
“Imagine visiting a website where you draw a circle on a map with an immediate return of timely population estimates such as growing stock volume on timberland, removals, mortality, coarse woody debris all coupled with mill census information regarding roundwood harvests by species and corresponding harvest/processing residues”
FUTURE VISION Live Trees
Removals
Biomass
Roundwood Products
Mill ResiduesMill Location
STEPS TOWARD VISION
Northern FIA
Southern FIA
Western FIA
Pre-2010
Northern FIA
Southern FIA
Western FIA
2010 - 2011
National TPO Team
Nationalized, Modernized,
Timely TPO
Eventual Future
* RMRS and PNW TPO Conducted through RJVA with Univ. of Montana
FUTURE VISION ELEMENTS Timely – Dynamic TPO
database Online Tools – Data
collection and distribution Phase 2 and Phase 3
synchronicity Stable mill census All wood use accounting Nationally consistent
TPO RPA every 5 years
One static, isolated online tool
Nationally inconsistent data collection
Now Future
WHAT DOES VISION BUY US?
$=Efficiencies Save = ProgramExpansion
• One database• One survey tool• “The Power of One”
• Stabilize mill surveys
• Utilization studies• Explore strategic
partnerships
ALL WOOD USE ACCOUNTING Solid/paper products and
energy (biomass); mill residue; logging residue
Logging/harvest utilization studies throughout the country
Virgin fiber…not recycled
Explore strategic partnerships: DOE, Census Bureau, and/or FPL
INCREMENTAL STEPS TOWARDS VISION
Pre-2010 Now With Your Help
2010-2011 ACTIVITIES A national TPO team with reps from all regions A draft set of national TPO core report tables Monthly CC’s are held to coordinate nationalization
efforts 6 half-day database CC’s 1 week workshop in St. Paul in July, 1 week workshop in
Asheville in October All activities documented at fia-ab.wikidot.com Programmers from each region assisting TPO team with
national TPO database/documentation development Working with FIDO developers on online data
collection/analysis/reporting tools 1st-ever national pulpwood report for 2008
NATIONAL PULPWOOD REPORT
DATABASE DESIGN (DATA TABLES)
PROPOSED DOCUMENTATION
NATIONAL TPO MILL SURVEY TOOL Meets eGov initiative: online data entry for paper
survey Provides mill ability to enter their data directly online
ORCooperator/Forest Service enters mill’s data from paper form
Secure login, encrypted data transmission and storage Ability to start survey, save and finish at later time Integrated data checks for improved QA Storage in Oracle database Data entry is integrated with national TPO data
processing system
NATIONAL TPO MILL SURVEY TOOL
INTEGRATED DATA CHECKS
DEVELOPING A PLAN FOR THE FUTURE
FUTURE OPTIONS
Which Data? How we Collect? How Often? Who Collects? Data Management? Who Analyzes? Which Website?
PREFERRED FUTURE Mill censuses Conducted periodically (2-5 years) (pulpwood annually) Conducted by mix of FS, State, and university cooperators Data include national core + regional add-ons Dynamic national processing system in NIMS Regionally prepared state TPO reports…national TPO database
used for national reports/queries Improved data collection and management systems that allow
expanded research and reporting products New online tools/applications, enhance access to TPO and FIA-
inventory data for users Explore logging utilization studies nationally Coordination with DOE on fuelwood inventories Facilitate annual imputation research Explore coordination with FPL Census Bureau partnership
STILL OPEN FOR IDEAS
2010 Census 2015 Census? ? ?
2010 Census 2015 Census
e.g. Annual Imputation
ANNUAL IMPUTATION New TPO database could be annualized….
Development of consistent imputation estimators
Strategic partnerships (e.g., FPL) needed for research
State help with sampling frame development and annual mill sample
But….
DATA STABILIZATION OPTIONS Lengthen cycles in the states where state
support is waning and the cycle is shorter than 5 years.
Buy-down to the 5-year P2 cycle and true “in-kind” state contributions to TPO effort.
Explore competitive grants (e.g., USDA, DOE, NSF) to periodically help pay for mill censuses and/or logging utilization studies.
Any more additional $ that FIA programs can contribute towards TPO?
Explore writing TPO work (e.g., mill surveys and utilization studies) into state/cooperator field work.
REMEMBER…
TPO is Cooperative process with States
States: Have mill contacts…collect data
FIA: Processes data, reports, and distributes
BUDGET UNCERTAINTY OUTCOMES
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES $ Reductions: Efficiencies through nationalization
may maintain current program…we are building national data system…states need to fill with quality/timely data.
$ Flat: Incremental progress if existing contractor continues database development efforts with programming staff (2 FTEs).
$ Additions: Utilization studies, stabilized data collection, progress on national database (years instead of decades?), staffing to pursue internal/external FIA imputation research
SUMMARY Users have been heard Progress has been made…must occur hand-in-
hand with states With your help we can go much farther