Post on 20-Aug-2015
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• History as a launch pad for foresight:• Robert Textor, Ethnographic Futures --
the rubber band effect.• Paul Saffo, Technological Forecasting --
twice as far back as forward.• Layering history of different sectors:
• Analysing different patterns of change.• Identifying different speeds of change.
TIMELINES and the FUTURE
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TIMELINE LAYERS: Speed Differentials
Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness from its starting point as an emerging issue of change.
local; few cases; emerging issues
3rd horizon
Pockets offuture found
In present Time
“present” “future”
Number of cases; degree of public awareness
global; multiple dispersed cases; trends and drivers
scientists; artists; radicals; mystics
specialists’ journals and websites
laypersons’ magazines; websites; documentaries
newspapers; news magazines; broadcast media
institutions and government
system limits; problems develop;
unintended impacts
HORIZON SCANNING
Beginning of research, not the end;
“N of 1”;
Unearths contradictions;
Subjective, not objective;
“Unscientific” sources;
Systems-based;
Unfamiliar concepts.
HORIZON SCANNING
• Primary futures tool for identifying and monitoring emerging change.
• Related to issues management and competitive intelligence.
• ”Environment” refers to the information environment – all media – and ”scanning” to logically structured, continuous monitoring of data sources.
• High quality scanning:– identifies an emerging issue that is objectively
new even to experts,
– confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and
– has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation.
Scanning provides a starting point to monitor possible transformative / disruptive changes.
3 Horizons helps us organise and consider the interplay of trends and emerging changes.
Uses: Challenge obsolescing assumptions; Spot emerging constraints / opportunities; Get beyond incrementalism.
SCANNING + the 3 HORIZONS framework
Three Horizons Framework for Layering Change Life-cyclesThree Horizons Framework for Layering Change Life-cyclesB Sharp, T Hodgson, A Curry
The 3 HORIZONS framework
• Perspective: long-term time horizon• Need: technology road-mapping that reflects
generations of technological innovation• Researchers: Bill Sharpe, Tony Hodgson, Andrew
Curry• Subsequent publications and articles:
– IIS Technology Forward Look; Sharpe and Hodgson– “Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to Strategy;”
Curry and Hodgson, Journal of Futures Studies– Bill Sharpe, Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope, 2013.
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ORIGINS of 3 HORIZONS framework:UK Foresight Intelligent Infrastructure Systems (IIS) Project
Three Horizons: Functional differencesThree Horizons: Functional differencesB Sharp, T Hodgson, A Curry
Horizon 1:ManagersHorizon 1:Managers
Dominance of worldview
Horizon 2:Entrepreneurs
Horizon 2:Entrepreneurs
Horizon 3:Visionary Leaders
Horizon 3:Visionary Leaders
Status quo, momentum,
inertia
Status quo, momentum,
inertia
Incremental adaptation & innovation
Incremental adaptation & innovation
Emerging change &
visions
Emerging change &
visions
Pockets of the future found in the present
Horizon ONE
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• Today’s dominant pattern(s) – accumulations of past decisions and designs
• H1 systems are fully integrated with surrounding culture – ‘locked in’
• Well-established ways of dealing with problems frame approaches to new challenges
• Dominated by quantitative sense of time as a limited resource
MANAGERIAL
Horizon THREE
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• Imagined futures and emerging changes – transformative shifts from the present
• Explores the ‘full range of possible social settlements and systems that could be brought into being’
• Surfaces and questions underlying cultural assumptions
• Dominated by qualitative awareness of time as a defining moment of decision
VISIONARY
Horizon TWO
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• Looks both ways – past and future – to respond to limitations of H1 and opportunities of H3
• Creates a zone of innovation and turbulence• Danger: “H1 capture” – too mired in the past• Dominated by feelings of opportunity,
engagement and a sense of opportunity cost – trade-offs that must be made
ENTREPRENEURIAL
Horizons Insights
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“Instead of seeing a world of stability to which change and uncertainty ‘happen,’ we instead become aware that everything that seems fixed and stable is just part of a slow process of change, embedded in other processes that extend out as far as we want to explore.”