Post on 05-Jul-2020
THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY
USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT
POLICY
-
Date:
GAIN Report Number:
Post:
Report Categories:
Approved By:
Prepared By:
Report Highlights:
2015 corn production is forecast to be 7.3 MMT less than the 2014 harvest. MY 2015/16 corn exports
are forecast at 12.5 MMT; down from 19.4 MMT in MY 2014/15. Ukraine’s 2015 wheat production is
forecast to increase 2.6 MMT over the 2014 crop. MY 2015/16 wheat exports are forecast to increase to
15.6 MMT; a 4.4 MMT increase from MY 2014/15.
Denys Sobolev, Agricultural Specialist
Stan Phillips, Agricultural Counselor
Grain and Feed
Grain and Feed Update
Kiev
Ukraine
UP1535
9/3/2015
Public Voluntary
GAIN Report – UP1535 – Grain and Feed Update Page 2 of 15
UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
Production
Ukraine’s 2015 harvest resulted in an estimated 26.8 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat, 8.5 MMT of
barley, and .365 MMT of rye according to the Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food of Ukraine
(MAPF). Compared with the 2014 crop, 2015 wheat production increased 2.6 MMT while barley
production decreased over .5 MMT and rye production decreased by 113 thousand MMT.
Ukraine’s corn harvest is ongoing. FAS Kyiv has reduced its forecast for Ukraine’s 2015 corn crop to
21.1 MMT (versus 28.5 MMT in 2014) to reflect reduced production area and unfavorable weather
conditions impacting plant growth conditions and productivity. August 2015 featured high temperatures
and low rates of precipitation for all territory of Ukraine, especially in Western regions, Mykolaiv,
Vinnitsa and Lugansk regions that have experienced a severe lack of rainfall. At the same time certain
parts of Kherson, Zaporozhe and Dnipropetrovsk regions have seen torrential rains.
The satellite imagery maps included below depict the vegetative development index (NDVI) for August,
2015. NDVI are consistent with the low rainfall, and are an indicator of the unfavorable growing
conditions for corn.
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UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
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UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
Decreased moisture content in the soil could force producers to miss optimum dates for planting winter
crops eventually leading to decreased productivity for the 2016 harvest. For more information
regarding the production areas for major crops, please see GAIN Report UP1528.
Trade
MY 2015/16 corn exports are forecast at 12.5 MMT; down from 19.4 MMT in MY 2014/15.
MY 2015/16 wheat exports are forecast to increase to 15.6 MMT; a 4.4 MMT increase from MY
2014/15. MY 2015/16 barley exports are forecast at 4.5MMT; comparable to the MY2014/15 level.
MY 2015/16 rye exports are forecast at 27,000 MT; slightly above the MY2014/15 level.
According to the preliminary data reported by the MAPF, Ukraine exported about 1.4 MMT of wheat
and 1.2 MMT of barley from the beginning of MY 2015/16 through August 14, 2015.
Official data from the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine indicate Ukraine exported 4.5 MMT of barley in
MY 2014/15; an 80 percent increase over MY 2013/14. Data for wheat exports indicate that Ukraine
exported 10.9 MMT of wheat in MY 2014/15; 16 percent more exports than MY 2013/14. MY 2014/15
rye exports reached 22,000 MT; a 57 percent reduction from MY 2013/14.
Corn exports from October 2014 to June 2015 reached 18.2 MMT which is comparable with the pace of
exports for the same period in the previous marketing year. See the statistical tables at the end of this
report for more details.
Recent domestic and export prices in Ukraine for wheat, corn and barley are shown in the following
graphs. For more information about please refer to GAIN Report UP1528.
GAIN Report – UP1535 – Grain and Feed Update Page 5 of 15
UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
GAIN Report – UP1535 – Grain and Feed Update Page 6 of 15
UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
Stocks
Wheat ending stocks are forecast to decrease to 4.8 MMT in MY 2015/16 from 5.2 MMT in
MY 2014/15. MY 2015/16 barley ending stocks are projected to decrease to 8.5 MMT from 9 MMT in
MY 2014/15.
MY 2015/16 corn ending stocks are projected to decrease to 1.4 MMT from 1.9 MMT in MY 2014/15.
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UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
GAIN Report – UP1535 – Grain and Feed Update Page 8 of 15
UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics
For MY2015/16 barley production is forecast to increase to 8.5 MMT and rye production to decrease to
365,000 MT reflecting decreased production area for these crops versus initial forecasts. The 2015
wheat crop is forecast to increase to 26.8 MMT based on the higher-than-expected crop productivity and
this respectively translated into subsequent export volume increases. 2015 corn production is forecast to
decrease to 21.1 MMT based on the expected impact of unfavorable weather conditions. Reduced
exportable supplies are expected to cause MY 2015/16 corn exports to decrease to 12.5 MMT.
Ukraine’s difficult economic situation and the subsequent influence on consumer demand is expected to
reinforce the trend toward reduced animal inventories. In turn, food and feed consumption for all major
grain crops is forecast to decrease in MY 2015/16 creating additional exportable supplies for wheat,
barley and rye.
GAIN Report – UP1535 – Grain and Feed Update Page 9 of 15
UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
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UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
Policy
The leadership of MAPF is committed to sign a new Memorandum of Understanding with the Ukrainian
grain sector on trade terms. It is anticipated that the new season trade terms would be similar to the
agreements reached in the preceding year.
Ukraine streamlined its phytosanitary legislation through a set of norms intended to impose tighter
deadlines for issuing quarantine certificates, ensuring public availability of information, introduction of
risk assessment-based activities and raising level of responsibility for actions/inactivity by government
officials. These amendments should potentially decrease logistics costs for plant origin products
GAIN Report – UP1535 – Grain and Feed Update Page 11 of 15
UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
exported from Ukraine. For more details, see GAIN Report UP1533.
Author Defined: Statistical Tables
Barley
Quantity % Share Quantity % Share Quantity % Share
World 2,133.8 100.00 2,475.2 100.00 4,454.6 100.00 79.97
Saudi Arabia 1,457.4 68.30 1,631.3 65.90 2,806.0 62.99 72.02
Turkey 33.7 1.58 0.0 0.00 394.4 8.85 0.00
Iran 155.5 7.29 0.0 0.00 306.7 6.89 0.00
China 0.0 0.00 4.8 0.19 250.9 5.63 5130.46
Libya 154.8 7.26 241.9 9.77 226.7 5.09 - 6.29
Israel 99.0 4.64 117.5 4.75 120.4 2.70 2.50
Algeria 0.0 0.00 25.1 1.01 70.2 1.58 180.04
Tunisia 0.0 0.00 107.3 4.34 53.7 1.21 - 49.94
Jordan 132.8 6.22 101.6 4.10 52.5 1.18 - 48.32
Kuwait 26.1 1.22 104.5 4.22 36.3 0.81 - 65.26
Egypt 32.2 1.51 0.0 0.00 20.1 0.45 0.00
Lebanon 20.2 0.95 6.9 0.28 13.9 0.31 100.77
Italy 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 7.4 0.16 0.00
United Arab Emirates 6.3 0.30 28.4 1.15 6.6 0.15 - 76.66
Syria 0.0 0.00 29.0 1.17 4.8 0.11 - 83.47
United Kingdom 1.5 0.07 0.0 0.00 3.7 0.08 0.00
Netherlands 0.3 0.01 0.3 0.01 3.5 0.08 1091.08
Slovakia 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 2.5 0.06 6209.71
Belarus 5.9 0.28 0.6 0.02 1.5 0.03 174.28
Poland 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 1.5 0.03 0.00
Taiwan 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 1.1 0.02 0.00
Armenia 1.3 0.06 0.0 0.00 0.8 0.02 0.00
Romania 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.3 0.01 0.00
Palestine 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.2 0.00 0.00
Philippines 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.1 0.00 0.00
Bahrain 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.1 0.00 0.00
Austria 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.1 0.00 0.00
Germany 0.0 0.00 0.1 0.00 0.1 0.00 - 29.11
Pakistan 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00
Georgia 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 475.33
Moldova 0.1 0.00 0.1 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 65.03
Switzerland 0.1 0.00 8.5 0.34 0.0 0.00 - 99.74
Russia 0.1 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 100.00
Lithuania 0.0 0.00 1.0 0.04 0.0 0.00 - 100.00
Denmark 0.0 0.00 0.2 0.01 0.0 0.00 - 100.00
Greece 2.0 0.09 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00
Kyrgyzstan 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00
Kazakhstan 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 100.00
Korea South 0.0 0.00 1.2 0.05 0.0 0.00 - 100.00
Uzbekistan 1.5 0.07 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00
Source: State Fiscal Service of Ukraine
Barley Exports from Ukraine by Destination, MY, 1000 MT (HS Code 1003)
Destination
MY 2012/13
(July 12-June 13)
MY 2014/15
(July 14-June 15)% Change
MY 2014/15 to
2013/14
MY 2013/14
(July 13-June 14)
GAIN Report – UP1535 – Grain and Feed Update Page 12 of 15
UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
Quantity % Share Quantity % Share Quantity % Share
World 8.0 100.00 16.3 100.00 0.6 100.00 - 96.39
Germany 0.2 2.42 0.2 1.18 0.3 43.06 31.21
Czech Republic 0.3 3.99 0.3 1.57 0.2 31.62 - 27.24
Austria 0.0 0.37 0.0 0.05 0.1 11.48 718.83
France 0.0 0.52 0.1 0.80 0.0 4.35 - 80.31
Serbia 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.12 0.0 3.41 0.55
Hungary 0.0 0.25 0.0 0.12 0.0 3.39 0.00
Romania 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 2.21 0.00
Poland 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.34 0.00
Netherlands 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.13 29.09
Moldova 0.0 0.00 0.2 1.10 0.0 0.00 - 100.00
Argentina 7.3 92.06 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00
Denmark 0.0 0.00 3.0 18.36 0.0 0.00 - 100.00
Russia 0.0 0.38 12.5 76.68 0.0 0.00 - 100.00
United Kingdom 0.0 0.01 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00
Barley Imports to Ukraine by Destination, MY, 1000 MT (HS Code 1003)
Destination
Source: State Fiscal Service of Ukraine
MY 2012/13
(July 12-June 13)
MY 2013/14
(July 13-June 14)
MY 2014/15
(July 14-June 15)% Change
MY 2014/15 to
2013/14
GAIN Report – UP1535 – Grain and Feed Update Page 13 of 15
UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
Wheat
Quantity % Share Quantity % Share Quantity % Share
World 6,886.1 100.00 9,410.2 100.00 10,883.5 100.00 15.66
Egypt 1,646.4 23.91 2,774.5 29.48 2,426.7 22.30 - 12.54
Spain 833.6 12.11 9.9 0.11 737.4 6.78 7348.69
Bangladesh 0.0 0.00 345.0 3.67 646.4 5.94 87.38
Korea South 101.8 1.48 169.3 1.80 578.8 5.32 241.95
Pakistan 0.0 0.00 164.4 1.75 502.8 4.62 205.88
Thailand 7.6 0.11 386.2 4.10 488.9 4.49 26.59
Morocco 795.7 11.55 242.9 2.58 463.4 4.26 90.80
Tunisia 450.6 6.54 340.3 3.62 455.1 4.18 33.73
Israel 350.7 5.09 406.5 4.32 454.2 4.17 11.76
Philippines 0.5 0.01 235.8 2.51 441.3 4.05 87.14
Italy 68.4 0.99 14.5 0.15 420.6 3.86 2792.18
South Africa 271.3 3.94 505.4 5.37 311.8 2.86 - 38.32
Turkey 130.0 1.89 146.6 1.56 292.3 2.69 99.41
Libya 376.4 5.47 383.8 4.08 261.4 2.40 - 31.90
Lebanon 112.0 1.63 172.5 1.83 240.3 2.21 39.28
Kenya 306.0 4.44 522.8 5.56 226.4 2.08 - 56.70
Indonesia 31.5 0.46 376.5 4.00 220.0 2.02 - 41.56
Djibouti 0.0 0.00 169.2 1.80 188.9 1.74 11.70
Yemen 101.6 1.48 120.5 1.28 169.7 1.56 40.87
Syria 419.5 6.09 317.9 3.38 137.0 1.26 - 56.90
Mozambique 34.7 0.50 14.0 0.15 120.6 1.11 760.31
Mexico 0.0 0.00 33.0 0.35 116.3 1.07 252.30
United Arab Emirates 73.8 1.07 35.4 0.38 104.9 0.96 196.73
Greece 3.2 0.05 0.0 0.00 84.5 0.78 ∞
Malaysia 6.3 0.09 29.0 0.31 74.8 0.69 157.42
Uganda 75.4 1.10 48.9 0.52 69.1 0.63 41.09
Netherlands 43.2 0.63 28.2 0.30 67.8 0.62 140.70
Iran 0.0 0.00 120.7 1.28 66.0 0.61 - 45.32
Mauritania 37.3 0.54 43.2 0.46 53.7 0.49 24.44
Jordan 351.1 5.10 431.8 4.59 52.5 0.48 - 87.84
Ethiopia 0.0 0.00 122.9 1.31 49.7 0.46 - 59.53
United Kingdom 2.8 0.04 37.3 0.40 48.8 0.45 30.99
Malta 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 41.3 0.38 0.00
Georgia 13.9 0.20 10.9 0.12 38.1 0.35 251.09
Algeria 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 22.3 0.20 0.00
Tanzania 55.6 0.81 10.0 0.11 21.3 0.20 113.00
Japan 0.0 0.00 267.0 2.84 21.0 0.19 - 92.12
Lithuania 6.3 0.09 0.1 0.00 20.5 0.19 ∞
Sudan 89.8 1.30 99.5 1.06 20.1 0.18 - 79.79
Saudi Arabia 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 18.7 0.17 0.00
Zambia 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 15.3 0.14 0.00
Germany 5.9 0.09 12.0 0.13 14.8 0.14 23.40
Belarus 11.9 0.17 3.3 0.03 11.5 0.11 253.60
Nigeria 0.0 0.00 10.2 0.11 11.0 0.10 8.37
Taiwan 0.0 0.00 11.0 0.12 9.5 0.09 - 14.13
Burundi 7.0 0.10 9.3 0.10 8.0 0.07 - 14.32
Cyprus 2.9 0.04 0.0 0.00 5.7 0.05 0.00
Poland 0.0 0.00 0.9 0.01 4.1 0.04 380.31
Panama 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 3.8 0.04 0.00
Switzerland 1.5 0.02 5.5 0.06 2.7 0.03 - 50.44
Zimbabwe 0.0 0.00 6.4 0.07 2.7 0.03 - 57.59
Virgin Islands (British) 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 2.7 0.02 0.00
India 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 2.6 0.02 0.00
Austria 0.7 0.01 3.4 0.04 2.3 0.02 - 30.82
Azerbaijan 1.5 0.02 0.0 0.00 2.0 0.02 0.00
Armenia 0.0 0.00 4.4 0.05 1.7 0.02 - 61.38
Vietnam 0.0 0.00 99.9 1.06 1.5 0.01 - 98.47
France 0.0 0.00 8.1 0.09 0.6 0.01 - 92.92
Bahrain 0.0 0.00 27.5 0.29 0.0 0.00 - 100.00
Congo 0.0 0.00 4.9 0.05 0.0 0.00 - 100.00
Congo Dem. Rep. 0.0 0.00 31.2 0.33 0.0 0.00 - 100.00
Korea North 0.0 0.00 7.5 0.08 0.0 0.00 - 100.00
Portugal 31.8 0.46 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00
Myanmar 3.0 0.04 3.3 0.04 0.0 0.00 - 100.00
Malawi 0.0 0.00 22.7 0.24 0.0 0.00 - 100.00
Rwanda 13.0 0.19 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00Senegal 8.6 0.12 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00
Other 1.3 0.0 2.6 0.0 5.5 0.1 111.0Source: State Fiscal Service of Ukraine
Wheat Exports from Ukraine by Destination, MY, 1000 MT (HS Code 1001)
Destination
% Change
MY 2014/15 to
2013/14
MY 2012/13
(July 12-June 13)
MY 2013/14
(July 13-June 14)
MY 2014/15
(July 14-June 15)
GAIN Report – UP1535 – Grain and Feed Update Page 14 of 15
UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
Quantity % Share Quantity % Share Quantity % Share
World 1.4 100.00 1.7 100.00 1.9 100.00 10.64
Germany 0.5 33.90 0.8 49.94 1.0 52.05 15.31
Czech Republic 0.3 23.90 0.3 20.73 0.4 21.42 14.34
Austria 0.1 7.17 0.2 9.19 0.3 18.63 124.31
Russia 0.3 18.80 0.1 7.96 0.1 3.27 - 54.48
Poland 0.0 2.94 0.0 1.19 0.0 2.31 114.90
Serbia 0.0 0.00 0.2 10.69 0.0 1.09 - 88.68
Croatia 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 1.07 0.00
Romania 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.08 0.00
France 0.0 1.57 0.0 0.08 0.0 0.05 - 27.02
Switzerland 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.04 0.0 0.01 - 67.53
Italy 0.1 8.78 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 16.67
Spain 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00
New Zealand 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00
Mexico 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 23.69
Turkey 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 82.13
United States 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.18 0.0 0.00 - 100.00
Australia 0.0 2.94 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00
Netherlands 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00
MY 2013/14
(July 13-June 14)
MY 2014/15
(July 14-June 15)% Change
MY 2014/15 to
2013/14
Source: State Fiscal Service of Ukraine
Wheat Imports to Ukraine by Destination, MY, 1000 MT (HS Code 1001)
Destination
MY 2012/13
(July 12-June 13)
Rye
Quantity % Share Quantity % Share Quantity % Share
World 16.5 100.00 50.9 100.00 21.9 100.00 - 56.87
Lithuania 0.0 0.00 5.2 10.20 10.7 48.90 106.71
Spain 0.0 0.00 24.4 47.99 8.7 39.48 - 64.52
Latvia 1.1 6.94 11.0 21.64 1.9 8.53 - 83.00
Poland 1.0 6.05 5.8 11.45 0.3 1.57 - 94.09
Belarus 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.04 0.1 0.55 471.63
Germany 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.1 0.49 ∞
Netherlands 0.6 3.79 0.3 0.49 0.1 0.39 - 65.65
Israel 12.3 74.22 3.0 5.99 0.0 0.10 - 99.30
Switzerland 0.2 0.93 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00
United Kingdom 1.3 8.07 1.1 2.19 0.0 0.00 - 100.00
Destination
MY 2012/13
(July 12-June 13)
MY 2013/14
(July 13-June 14)
Rye Exports from Ukraine by Destination, MY, 1000 MT (HS Code 1002)
Source: State Fiscal Service of Ukraine
% Change
MY 2014/15 to
2013/14
MY 2014/15
(July 14-June 15)
GAIN Report – UP1535 – Grain and Feed Update Page 15 of 15
UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
Corn