Post on 23-Dec-2015
The Water-Food-Energy Nexus in transboundary basins -more benefits for sharing
Holger Hoff
Stockholm Environment InstitutePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Nexus Lecture Series, Cologne, 17 October 2013
Nexus:
What is it?
Why do we need it?
How to implement it?
in transboundary basins
in the Jordan River
in the Blue Nile
What is the nexus?
previous examples of integrated approaches- ecosystem approach- agro-ecology or agro-forestry- integrated water resources management (IWRM)
integrated or systemic approaches across sectors and resources:
generating co-benefits, increasing overall resource use efficiencies, mobilizing untapped potentials,
BUT: mostly driven by individual sectors,lessons not learned, not continuedno transfer & upscaling
e.g. via recycling, cascading use of resources, multi-functional systems, improved river basin and landscape configurations etc.
Why do we need a nexus approach?
a resource constrained and environmentally limited world:growing demand for natural resources, biomass (food, feed, fibres, fuel….) and other ecosystem services
degradation of resources / ecosystems + climate change
risk of transgressing sustainability thresholds, from local to planetary boundaries
reconciling economic development with future food /water / energy /environmental security & resilience
How to implement a nexus approach?
baseline assessment: resource locations, availabilities, (cross-resource) demands and productivities
toolbox for scenario assessments: WEAP (water), LEAP (energy)
entry points for mainstreaming nexus principles towards policy coherence, e.g. revisions of strategies / plans
economic incentives for reducing negative externalities, e.g. resource prices, subsidies, payments for environmental services
partnerships / dialogues / platformslevel playing field,bridging institutions
A nexus approach in transboundary basins
45% of land mass, 40% of the world‘s populationoften lack of cooperation
existing transboundary cooperations are primarily sectoral, e.g. on specific waterworks or water uses,-> zero-sum games
nexus: multiple-resource / multiple-sector agreements,more benefits for sharing,win-win solutions
let‘s identify initial examples of cooperation on • reservoirs & hydropower• agricultural water management (water harvesting, re-allocations, irrigation..)• land management for carbon sequestration (CDM, REDD+…)
A nexus approach in transboundary basins
starting from UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and
International Lakes - “Water Convention”
a holistic approach:• preventing adverse transboundary impacts• managing shared waters using the
ecosystems approach and restoring ecosystems
• equitable water use
A nexus approach in the Jordan River
equitable water use?
A nexus approach in the Jordan River
contributions (million m3 / year)
withdrawals(million m3 / year)
Jordan 530 320Syria 435 260Israel 160 >700
Palestian Authority
155 60
Lebanon 120 10
Phillips et al. 2006
meaning what?
A nexus approach in the Jordan River
nexus as an alternative to pharaonic projects,such as Red Sea – Dead Sea Canal with large scale desalinationand/or nuclear power
A nexus approach in the Jordan River
baseline assessment: water distribution, availability, demand, productivity
starting from rainfall (improved rainfed agriculture)
Menzel et al. 2011
-> more energy efficient irrigation configuration (additional co-benefits from saving energy)
restoring environmental flows (additional co-benefits from tourism)
and taking into account the topography
A nexus approach in the Jordan River
Baseline assessment: water distribution, availability, demand, productivity
solar power and desalination (co-benefits from technology transfer – also to GCC countries)
Dead Sea
starting from rainfall (improved rainfed agriculture)
-> more energy efficient irrigation configuration (additional co-benefits from saving energy)
restoring environmental flows (additional co-benefits from tourism)
and taking into account the topography
future diversification of benefits gets will get easier:riparians successively reduce their dependency on Jordan River water:only 2% of employment is in agriculture (for comparison in Egypt: 30%)¾ of food demand is met from imports (Egypt: ~ 40%)increasing diversification of water sources (desalination)
A nexus approach in the Jordan River
nexus tools for quantifying tradeoffs & synergies (scenario assessment)
e.g. participatory WEAP developmentfor assessing systemic effectsof different interventions (Hoff et al. 2011)
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Hoff et al. 2012
A nexus approach in the Nile
A nexus approach in the Nile
and from topography-> more energy-efficient food production (benefits from reduced pumping)
baseline assessment: water distribution, availability, demand, productivity
FAO 2011
and from aridity-> more water-efficient food production (benefits from reduced irrigation demand)
e.g. starting from rainfall (improved rainfed agriculture)
A nexus approach in the Nile
The Nile Egypt‘s lifeline
Phillips et al. 2006
equitable water use?
nexus as an alternative to pharaonic projects such as the Sudd wetland drainage
A nexus approach in the Nile
Jonglei Canal
(1974 – 1984)
A nexus approach in the Nile
potential co-benefits: • higher water productivity in agriculture and in power production• sediment reduction• flood protection• improved navigation• securing environmental flows
• Potential for further improved resource management through collaboration (see MWRI in Egypt)
evaporative losses from > 10 km3 per yearAssuan dam-> large potential for optimizing water storage
power links and power trade:Eastern African Power Pool
A nexus approach in the Nile
sharing benefits beyond water:energy production
Ethiopia (GDP per capita 6 times smaller than Egypt’s)has large hydropower potential
additional co-benefits from: - reduced spendings on oil imports- risk spreading through diversification of power sources (= resilieince)
A nexus approach in the Nile
Karimi et al. 2010
sharing benefits beyond water:food production
large agricultural water productivity gradientacross the basin (factor 10)
Ethiopia is one of the maintarget countries for foreign direct investments (Bossio et al. 2012)
(including Egyptian investments)
foreign direct investment for improved basin-wideresource use efficiency(including green water) (Hoff et al. 2012)
A nexus approach in the Nile
nexus tools fordemonstratingbenefitsquantitatively(ongoing projectin the upper Blue Nile)
“States cooperate when the net benefits of cooperation are perceived to be greater than the net benefits of non-cooperation” Grey et. al. 2009
A nexus approach in the Nile
starting from the Blue Nileabout 2/3rd of total Nile flow to Egypt
comparing business-as-usual (BAU) and the Ethiopian Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP)
Lake Tana
WEAP model
Initial WEAP model for Lake Tana
Januar
y
Febru
ary
Mar
chApril
May
June
July
August
Septe
mber
October
Novem
ber
Decem
ber1784
1784.5
1785
1785.5
1786
1786.5
1787
BAUGTP/CRGE
m.a.s.l.
critical lake level: navigation, fishing,wetland conservation
Initial WEAP model for Lake Tana and Beles „corridor“
water limited biofuel and hydropower scenarios
Lachaut2012
Initial LEAP model for Ethiopia
total energy demand for intensified agriculture (GTP)
de Strasser2013
policy support through quantitative tradeoff analysis
RESOURCE PRIMARY SECONDARY DISTRIBUTION FINAL USE
ENERGY
Geothermal Resources Geothermal Power Plants
T&D Electricity Uses
Hydropower Plants
Importation of Oil Processing Transport
Distribution Fertilizer Production
Fertile Land Biomass Biofuel Production Other uses
WATER
Precipitation
Catchment Dams/Storage Groundwater transportation Pumping Irrigation
Runoff Other Uses
Groundwater Extraction Canals Distribution Gravity Irrigation
CLIMATE
Temperature
Evaporation Transpiration GHGs Emissions
Humidity
LAND
Forest Forestation Wood Production
Urban Areas
Desertic Land Urbanization Industrialization Infrastructure
Crops Production
Fertile Land Agriculture Biofuel Production
Livestock Production26
CLEWsframework:
de Strasser2013
How to institutionalize a nexus approach?
Institutional (social) network analysis for the upper Blue Nile:
A nexus approach in the Nile
Stein et al.2013