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George Ambler@cioleader
The Top 10 Strategic TechnologyTrends for 2014
Key Issues
• What technology trends will have the biggestpotential for significant enterprise impact over thenext three years?
• Which technologies or trends will drive significantchange or disruption?
• Are there changes or tipping points occurring nowor over the next three years that make thetechnology newly strategic or applicable to awider market?
1
Strategic Technology Trends
Mobile Device Diversity & Mgt.Mobile Apps & ApplicationsThe Internet of EverythingHybrid Cloud & IT as Service BrokerCloud/Client ArchitectureThe Era of Personal CloudSoftware Defined AnythingWeb Scale IT.Smart Machines3-D Printing
Top 10 Strategic TechnologyTrends for 2014:
Future Disruption
Derivative Impact
Converging Forces
No Single Vendor Will DominateThere's Space for Three Leaders
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Greater China
Emerging APAC
Mature APAC
North America
Western Europe
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Greater China
Emerging APAC
Mature APAC
North America
Western Europe
Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System, Worldwide, 2Q13
Han
dset
sTa
blet
s
Feature phoneOther OSBlackBerryWindowsiOSAndroid
Mobile Device Diversity• Many form factors, screen sizes, interaction styles, platforms, architectures• > 100 mobile application development tools, > 60 MDM tools• Management and security challenges driven by BYOD & BYOA• New working practices, opportunities, organizational structures, skills• Tactics are the new strategy
Pocketable Portable Shared AreasGrab &Go
Desk
Touch, Voice, ...Keyboard, Mouse
Gesture
Glanceable
The Rise of Enterprise Mobile Platforms
• Enterprise mobile platforms are key strategicsolutions encompassing mobile applications,integration, management, and security
Serv
ices
LOB Apps
Integration
Common Apps
Management
App Development
Secu
rity
Enterprise Mobile Platform
• Cloud-delivered• Social-enabled• Multichannel• Device-aware• Device-agnostic
Removes complexity from mobile decisionsProtects enterprise from mobile device warsDrives reuse and faster mobile adoption
Device vendors likeApple and Google willnot be the most strategicmobile platform in theworkplace
Broad solution portfolios putthese discrete markets atrisk:• Mobile Device Management (MDM)• Legacy Mobile Enterprise Application
Platforms (MEAP)• Security Containers• Enterprise File Sync & Share• Cloud Mobile Back-end Services
Enterprise Mobile Platforms
Emerging leaders
… with more joining soon.
Invest tactically in best-of-breed solutions with<2 years payback. Select strategic vendors by 2016.
• Richer UI models• Voice, Video & more
• “Apps” grow as“Applications” shrink.
• Microsoft, Google andApple will battle forleadership
• “Modern” UI• Connected apps• Contextual, multi-device
• Multichannel applicationintegration and interactions:
• Store, Sync and Share• Development challenges
- New design skills- Responsive Design- Native apps vs. HTML5
Mobile Apps and Applications
More InputsMore Places
More Actions
Internet of Things Hype Cycle, 2013
InnovationTrigger
Peak ofInflated
ExpectationsTrough of
Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau ofProductivity
time
expectations
Plateau will be reached in:less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years
obsoletebefore plateau
As of July 2013
Smart Dust
Operational Intelligence Platforms
802.11ahQuantified Self
Decisions and Recommendationsas a Service
Autonomous VehiclesData Science
IT/OT IntegrationSilicon Anode Batteries
Context Delivery Architecture
Big Data
Home Energy Management/Consumer Energy Management
Low-Cost Development BoardsSmart Fabrics
Wireless Power
Bluetooth 4.0Enterprise Information ArchitectureFacilities Energy ManagementRaspberry PiSmart AppliancesComplex-Event Processing
Home-Area Network
Broadband-Connected TelevisionsOperational Technology Security
Z-WaveTelematics
Machine-to-Machine Communication ServicesOperational Technology Platform Convergence
Mesh Networks: SensorAdvanced MeteringInfrastructure
EnterpriseManufacturing
IntelligenceVehicle-to-Infrastructure
Communications
IPv6ISA-95 Integration StandardsVehicle-to-Vehicle Communications
RFID for Logistics and Transportation6LoWPAN
Public Telematics and ITS802.15.4/ZigBee
RF MCU
Consumer Telematics
Wireless HealthcareAsset Management
Commercial TelematicsDASH7Internet of Things
Smart City Framework, ChinaSmart Transportation
Mobile Health Monitoring
• Manage• Monetize• Operate• Extend
From: Hype Cycle for the Internet of Things, 2013, 31 July 2013 (G00252763)
Usage Models
Action Plan for the Internet of Everything1. Imagine digitizing your most
important products, servicesand assets
2. Walk through each of the fourmodels:
- Can I manage it better andimprove productivity?
- Can I charge for it?- Can I operate it remotely?- Can I extend new services
or content to it?3. Do the same with your top
three core processes.4. Look for Interconnection
between things, people, placesand information
Internet ofPeople
Internet ofInformation
Internet ofPlaces
Internet ofThings
Hybrid Cloud – Combining Services
DeploymentComposition
StaticComposition
DynamicComposition
EventComposition
Composed each timethe service is
provisioned/used
Designed so thatservices are alwaysused together in the
same manner
Recomposeddynamically during
runtime
Recomposed basedon a planned or one-
time event
• Complementary capabilities/data.• Most common current approach
• Based on policies, capacityavailability, current pricing.
• Viable with strict parameters andplanning
• Based on policy and dynamically-changing capacity or capabilityneeds, pricing
• Bleeding edge approach but evolving
• Based on expected capacity orcapability needs (e.g., disasterrecovery)
• Emerging approach
Hybrid IT - IT As Advisor, Broker & Provider
ITCloud Services Broker
Enterprise App Store
PrivateCloud
Services
PublicCloud
ServicesTraditionalServices
PublicCloud
Services& Mobile
Apps
Hybrid ITThe Enterprise
Advisor• User Facing• Facilitate business
decisions• Front end mobile app
stores and cloud markets• Deliver enterprise mobile
apps and cloud services• Future of internal portals
and service catalogs• Social Elements
Broker• Service Facing• Emphasize IT role as
broker and integrator• CMP and/or CSB models
Provider• IaaS & PaaS Abstraction• App, Dev, Mgt & Sec. SW
Provider• Data Centers• Vertically Integrated
Cloud/Client Architecture
12
• The cloud is the controlpoint and system of record
• Applications span multipleclient devices
• The Application is in thecloud … Apps exposecapabilities on the client.
• The experience flows towhere you are and whatyou are doing in context
• Mobile containers drive anew security approach
• Applications will usemultiple client endpointssimultaneously
DataLogic
UI Model
DataLogic
UI Model
The Human Perspective –The Rise of the Personal Cloud
• Center of each user’s personaldigital ecosystem
• Unique collection of services foreach user
• Assembled and evolved by eachuser
• Glue connecting the devices andservices they choose to use daily
• Shift in the balance of power
13
Vendors and IT organizations mustalign to this next stage of
consumerization
GoogleGmail
iTunes XboxLive
MicrosoftSkydrive
Amazon NetflixTwitter
AppleiCloud Rdio
CorpSharepoint
Pro
Sync Me
See Me
Know Me
Be Me
14
The Journey to Programmable Everything
Software DefinedNetworking
Software DefinedStorage
Software DefinedDataCenter
IaaS
Real TimeInfrastructure
Fabric BasedComputing
Open ComputeProject
OpenStack
VirtualDataCenters
IntegratedSystems
SoftwareDefined
Anything
Web-Scale IT: A Result of the CloudProvider “Singularity”
Web-scale IT is a pattern of global class computingthat delivers the capabilities of large cloud services
providers to the enterprise.
You Too can “run with the big dogs”
Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/lesliehawthorn/5635451116
API-basedManagement
Web-orientedArchitecture
CollaborativeAligned
Organization
Velocity-focused
Processes
IndustrialDesigned
InfrastructuresRisk
EmbracingCulture
Web-ScaleIT
Open
Source
NEXUSNEXUS
Web-Scale IT Implementation: Need toRethink the Entire IT Value Chain
Web-scale IT"powers" the
Nexus
What's In: Open Source, DIY,Resiliency, Services, DevOps,Sharing, Learning, Scale Out,New Age Vendors
What's Out: Proprietary,Turnkey, Complexity, GUIs,ITIL, Heroes, Rules, Scale Up,Old-School Vendors
The Rise of Smart Machines
NetworkScale
(10^11 interconnected nodes)
NewHardware
(Cores, memory andinterconnects)
Algorithms(E.g., Deep learning, NLP,
meaning extraction andcontext awareness)
ContentExplosion(Big Data, IT/OT, IoT and
the Internet)
18
Smart Machine Categories
• Movers- Autonomous vehicles
• Sages- Linguistically smart
Information-based helpers- personal assistants, smart
advisors
• Doers- Machine-focused helpers- Robots, Networks of
Industrial Machines
3D Printing OpportunitiesWhy Enterprises Care• Rapid, iterative prototypes and
models; short-run manufacturing;new product opportunities
Why Technology Providers Care• 82% CAGR to $5.7b in 2017• A growing new ecosystemInhibitors• Overhyped use cases• Need to adapt business models• Technologies, materials, actual
build cost• Intellectual property rights,
copyrights 19
Stratasys / Solidscapeexample
3D SystemsZprinter example
Cross-section of bioprinted human liver tissue2013 Cool Vendor Organovo
The Bottom Line• The Nexus of forces continues to drive change and create new
opportunities
• Mobile-centric trends and technologies increasingly define theclient environment and the core end-user app and experience.
• Cloud is becoming a mainstream computing style and deliveryoption with hybrid cloud, cloud brokerage and new delivery,management and security options accelerating adoption.
• Cloud and Mobile combine to drive new application architecturesand a new user experience called “personal cloud”
• Information & Social elements are deeply embedded into all ofthe strategic trends.
• The Nexus forces create demand for advanced programmableinfrastructure and services that can execute at web-scale andsupport new client/cloud app models and the personal cloud
Recommended Gartner ResearchBYOD Doesn't Have to Be All or Nothing: Match Smartphone, Tablet andPC Rollouts to Organizational Readiness and Employee DemandLeslie Fiering (G00247169)
The Mobile Imperative: Mobile Application Strategies and ArchitecturesDavid Mitchell Smith (G00251010)
The Information of Things: Why Big Data Will Drive the Value in theInternet of Things Hung LeHong (G00249066)
Decision Point for Selecting a Mobile Application ArchitectureKirk Knoernschild and others (G00234823)
Cool Vendors in 3D Printing, 2013 Pete Basiliere, et al (G00250450)The Disruptive Era of Smart Machines Is Upon Us (G00257743)
The Internet of EverythingMark Raskino and Hung LeHong (G00234337)
Emerging Technology Analysis: OpenFlow and Software-DefinedNetworking for CSPsAkshay K. Sharma (G00233227)
For more information, stop by Experience Gartner Research Zone or e-mail us at solutioncentral@gartner.com.