Post on 03-Jan-2016
description
gerd.jendritzky@meteo.uni-freiburg.de
The Thermal Environment of the Human Being
- A subjective retrospection on methodologies -
Gerd Jendritzky1 and George Havenith2
1Meteorological Institute, University of Freiburg, Germany2Environmental Ergonomics Research Centre, Loughborough University, U.K.
g.havenith@lboro.ac.uk
Overview
• Applications (selected examples)• Basics in heat exchange• Simple Climate Indices• Heat Balance Models• The Future: Incorporating the Human• Provocative remarks
Why?
• Assessment of the thermal environment:
Key issue in human biometeorology!
Applications
• Public weather service
• Public health system
• Precautionary planning
• Climate impact research
christina.koppe@dwd.de DWD 2004
Human Biometeorology
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
11.0
2.03
25.0
2.03
11.0
3.03
25.0
3.03
08.0
4.03
22.0
4.03
06.0
5.03
20.0
5.03
03.0
6.03
17.0
6.03
01.0
7.03
15.0
7.03
29.0
7.03
12.0
8.03
26.0
8.03
09.0
9.03
23.0
9.03
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
mo
rtal
ity
(%);
PT
(°C
)
hypothetical warning
PT (°C)
mortality (%)
Modelled Heat Load and Observed Mortality 2003, Baden-Württemberg
Heat related extra deaths in Europe, August 2003
UTC13:00
heat load
cold stress
slight
extreme
strong
moderate
slight
comfortable
moderate
strong
extreme
• 7000• 2045 • 1400
• 150
• 14805
• 4175• 4230
01915462810F(%) =
Paris (1991 - 1998)
Thermal stress category
43210-1-2-3
Mor
talit
y
150
140
130
120
110
10090
0 0 4 13 55 27 0 0F(%) =
London (1976 - 2000)
Thermal stress category
43210-1-2-3
Mor
talit
y (%
)
150
140
130
120
110
10090
021318333130F(%) =
Budapest (1972 - 2001)
Thermal stress category
43210-1-2-3M
orta
lity
(%)
150
140
130
120
110
10090
0 1 12 18 40 27 10F(%) =
SW Germany (1968 - 2003)
Thermal stress category
43210-1-2-3
Mor
talit
y (%
)
150
140
130
120
110
10090
0 2 17 28 48 500F(%) =
Lisbon (1981 - 1998)
Thermal stress category
43210-1-2-3
Mor
talit
y (%
)
400
350
300
250
200
150
10050
0 2 17 28 48 500F(%) =
Lisbon (1981 - 1998)
Thermal stress category
43210-1-2-3
Mor
talit
y (%
)
150
140
130
120
110
10090
Human Biometeorology
Mortalityby Thermal Stress
(Koppe, 2004)
gerd.jendritzky@meteo.uni-freiburg.de
hei
ght
U
width
26
30
34
38
42
Tair
wind
PT
°C
T surface
TMRT
30 32 34 °CTwall T
34 36 38°Cwall
PT
angelika.graetz@dwd.de
Berlin
frequency of heat load
Business Unit Human Biometeorology
The heat wave 2003 in Europe:A unique feature?
IPCC WGI, 2001:
“Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over nearly all land areas are very likely”
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Average summer Tmax [°C]
0
.02
.04
.06
.10
.08
Fre
qu
ency
1961-1990(obs)
1961-1990(mod) 2071-2100
2003
Beniston, 2004
Need to adapt
birger.tinz@dwd.dedata: Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum Hamburg; ECHAM4/T106
July Delta Perceived Temperature (K), (IS92a-CTL)
cold warm
Body Core Temperature
Heat Production
Heat Loss
Heat Balance
The human heat budget
M + W + Q* + QH + QL + QSW + QRe + S = 0
M Metabolic rate
W Mechanical power
Q* Radiation budget (Tmrt,v)
QH Turbulent flux of sensible heat (Ta,v)
QL Turbulent flux of latent heat (diffusion water vapour) (e,v)
QSW Turbulent flux of latent heat (sweat evaporation) (e,v)
QRe Respiratory heat flux (sensible and latent) (Ta,e)
S Storage
I Assessment Procedures
Simple (mostly two-parameter) thermal indices,„comfort indices“ (> 100 known)
Examples: Air temperature Ta Heat index (Ta, RH) Windchill Index (Ta, v) WBGT
Principle
Each value of an index must result in the same thermophysiologial effect,
regardless of the combinations the meteorological and other environmental input values.
No simple index is able to fulfill this requirement!
II Assessment Procedures
Weather classifications (holistic approach)(e.g. Kalkstein et al.)
• Successful in health studies• Successful in HHWSs
conduction
convection
respiration
Sweat evaporation
clothing
Direct radiation
Sun or other
radiation source
Reflectedradiation
Infra-redradiation
infra-redradiation
M
External work
Avenues of Heat Exchange
Havenith, 2003
Assessment ProceduresSimple index
Heat balance model
The Comfort Equation
Fanger, 1970
Problems
• Heat balance models assume “steady state” condition of the human body
• Models only consider two nodes (core and shell)
• Physiological response is simplified
Physiological reaction to body cooling
Havenith, 2005
Skin Temperature
Havenith/ Adidas, 2004
Future ExpansionSimple index
Heat balance model
HumanPhysiologymodel
Tcore
Tskin
Skin Blood Flow
Sweating
Shivering
Brain Controllers
Behaviour
SkinTemperature
Threshold
+ -
CoreTemperature
Threshold
+ -
Environment
HeatExchange
HeatExchange
Human Physiology ModelControl System
Havenith, 2001
Fiala et al., 2001
Future ExpansionSimple index
Heat balance model
HumanPhysiologymodel
European COST Action 730:Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)
Action 730 on UTCI
Fiala et al. 2001
Final Provocative Remarks
• Temperature related mortality: People die from heat load!• Holistic approaches: For what when we basicly know the
physiological link!• Simple thermal indices:
- Former times: Lack of knowledge
- Later : No access to computer facilities
- Since years : Ignorance of physiological basics• Complete heat budget models state-of-the-art• Future: Human response related improved models UTCI
• Shouldn‘t scientific journals reject manuscripts not based on state-of-the-art?