The Supply and Demand

Dichotomy in Australian Seafood

Mike Hall

Meat and Livestock

Grains and Oilseeds

Frut and Vegetables

Seafood

Total Gross Value of Australia‟s Farm and Fisheries Production $36.7 billion (2009-2010)

$16.7 bill.

$8.8bill.

$6.9 bill.

$2.2 bill.

Source: National Food Plan

National Food Plan

„to protect Australia‟s food security and

to develop a strategy to maximise food production opportunities‟

279 Submissions

“Australia produces more food than it consumes,

including almost all fresh food, however at the

population increases, imports are likely to complement

domestic production in satisfying Australia‟s food

requirements.”

“ The global food market is rapidly changing and facing

new challenges. With the changing face of international

food markets Australia must position itself to manage

future risks, but equally, to reap future gains”

Issues paper to inform development of a

National Food Plan June 2011

Outline

Seafood Supply

Global

Past to Present

Present to Future

Australia

Seafood Supply: a canned history

Feeding an additional 2 to 3 billion

and the rise of the Asian middle class

Global Warming:

The First Threat to Human Societies?

A world food crisis can be expected in the coming

decades as our demand for food outstrips our ability to

produce it, a UK government adviser has warned.

New UK chief science adviser, Professor John Beddington,

said the crisis could be as serious as climate change and may

hit sooner.

The world's 6.5 billion population is expected to reach 9 billion

by 2050.

Climate change is expected to worsen the problem, reducing

rainfall and affecting crop growth.

“There is a real, fundamental problem emerging in food

policy that, frankly, has been under-recognised “

Source: BBC News

“The central issue in human destiny in the coming half century

is not climate change or the global financial crisis. It is whether

humanity can achieve and sustain an enormous harvest.”

Animal Protein Production (million tonnes) Animal protein supplies 20% of total world protein consumption

Annual growth

Pork

96 mt

+0.8%

Oceanic

93 mt

+0.1%

Poultry

76 mt

+4.9%

Eggs

61 mt

+3.7%

Beef

59 mt

+0.8%

Aquaculture

40 mt

+10.0%

Mutton

12 mt

+1.6%

Source: FAO

Aquatic Protein

133 mill mt

30% of total

UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) Australia ratifies 1994

Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ): 3rd Largest in the World

Exclusive Economic Zones (200 nm x coastal baseline)

No. 1 = United States @ 11,351,000 km2

Exclusive Economic Zones (200 nm x coastal baseline)

No. 2 = France @ 11,035,000 km2

Exclusive Economic Zones (200 nm x coastal baseline)

No. 3 = Australia @ 8,505,348 km2

Food Production: Land vs Ocean

Area (km2) 7,617,930 km2

Area (km2) 7,617,930 vs 8,505,348 km2

Australian Exports Many non-renewable & unsustainable

Should the

world‟s 3rd largest EEZ

be a net producer and/or

exporter of Seafood?

Renewables (farmed)

Non-renewables

Fossil (carbon) fuels

Source: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade

Food Production: Land vs Ocean Farming vs Hunter-Gatherer

Food Harvest (mt) 41,653,000 mt

Area (km2) 7,617,930 vs 8,505,348 km2

Cereals

Meat

Pulses

Tubers

Source: www.water.gov.au

Food Production: Land vs Ocean Farming vs Hunter-Gatherer

Food Harvest (mt) 41,653,000 vs 279,099 mt

Area (km2) 7,617,930 vs 8,505,348 km2

Cereals

Meat

Pulses

Tubers

0.7%

Farming

Hunter-Gathering

Source: www.water.gov.au

Food Production: Land vs Ocean Farming vs Hunter-Gatherer

Food Harvest (mt) 41,653,000 vs 279,099 mt

Area (km2) 7,617,930 vs 8,505,348 km2

7%

Farming

Animal Production

Hunter-Gathering

Fisheries

Source: www.water.gov.au

24.6

kg/yr/km2

9.2

kg/yr/km2

120.0

kg/yr/km2

115.0

kg/yr/km2

102.0

kg/yr/km2

21.5

kg/yr/km2

23.0

kg/yr/km2

World average = 252 kg/km2

Wild Fisheries Harvest from Australian EEZ

Queensland Fishery Production

Total 24.6 kg/yr/km2

Crustacean 12.6 kg/yr/km2

Molluscs 1.6 kg/yr/km2

Finfish 10.3 kg/yr/km2

Fishery Harvest (Protein) from „Queensland‟ EEZ Includes State and Commonwealth waters

Daily protein yield from 1 km2 EEZ = 1.5 chicken eggs

Equiv. 4.7 kg/protein/yr/km2

or 12.8 gms protein/day/km2

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

20,000,000

Pro

du

cti

on

(metr

ic t

on

nes)

Country

90% of world fishing grounds within EEZs Under Government Fishery Management Control

World Fisheries (Aquatic) Production

Australia

Uganda

Indonesia

Thailand

Vietnam

Malaysia

China became net importer of seafood in 2011

The Oceanic (71%) Planet „Earth‟ (29%)

Hunter-Gatherer Harvest „Great Fisheries Inexhaustible‟ (1866)

>10,000 dead from Gloucester alone

„……it may be confirmed with confidence that in

relation to our present modes of fishing, a number

of the most important sea fisheries such as the

cod fishery, the herring fishery and the mackerel

fishery are inexhaustible…. Nothing we do

seriously affects the number of fish. And that any

attempt to regulate these fisheries seems

consequently from the nature of the case to be

useless.‟

Report of the Royal Commission into the Fisheries (1866)

Industrialization of Fisheries

Harvesting rate eventually exceeded that of natural population replenishment

1978

1969

Industrial Revolution → Electronic Revolution Hunter-Gatherers gain further Efficiency

Electronic Revolution

„Super‟ Efficient Hunter-Gatherer Fisheries

Great Fisheries are exhaustible with technology

Landings of Demersal Fishes in Northwestern Atlantic 1960 - 2000

Year

To

tal C

atc

h (

1,0

00

x to

nn

es)

Fisheries Management

More Fisheries Management

And more Fisheries Management

Canada ratifies

UNCLOS (2003)

Closure:

40,000 unemployed

Industrialised (Factory Ship) Fishing: Fairtry (1954)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Glo

bal

Mari

ne

Harv

est

(m

illi

on

to

nn

es)

Year

6% Growth 2% Growth 0% Growth

Industrialised Fishing with Progressively Decreasing Growth

The Benefits of Marine Protected Areas (2003) Commonwealth Department of Environment and Heritage

Kenchington, R, Ward, T., and Hegerl, E.

√

?/ √

?

?

?/ √

No-take Green Zones (2004) to

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)

Introduction of MPAs

&

Additional

Fisheries

Changes

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) Coral Trout Landings – 19 year history

Populations have increased 31-75% on reefs closed to fishing within 1.5 to 2 years

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

Ha

rve

st

(m

t)

Year

Annual Average = 1623 mt

Annual Average = 1050 mt

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) Red Throated Emperor – 19 year history

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Ha

rve

st

(m

t)

Year

Introduction of MPAs

&

Additional

Fisheries

Changes

Annual Average = 655 mt

Annual Average = 271 mt

MPA’s Balancing Conservation Policy with Fisheries Policy

Australian is Net Importer of Seafood

Supply Issues are „Exported‟ Overseas

Wild Fishery Yields Declining

MPA‟s do not address supply issue

Supply Issues are being „Exported „Overseas

In breach of UNCLOS legislation?

(ABARE 2010)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010 2020 2030

Nu

mb

er

of

P

eo

ple

(m

illi

on

s)

Year

World Middle Classes to increase to 5 billion

Source: Kharas, OECD, 2010

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010 2020 2030

Nu

mb

er

of

Peo

ple

(m

illi

on

s)

Year

Australia

Asia

Rest of World

World Middle Classes to increase to 5 billion Asia Middle Class increases from 28% to 66% of world

Source: Kharas, OECD, 2010

3.2

billion

1.7

billion

1.5

billion

1.7

billion

0.5

billion

1.3

billion

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Se

afo

od

pe

r a

nn

um

(k

g)

per capita GDP (1000's US$)

Source: York & Gossard (2004)

Production and Consumption of Seafood With increasing GDP Asian demand is 3x that of Westerns

Asia

West

World‟s economic centre of gravity: 1980 – 2050

Purchasing power of US$56 trillion (70% of global demand) from Asian million middle class

Source: Quah (2011) LSE

020406080

100120140160180200220240260280

1950 2000 2050

Mil

lio

n t

on

ne

s Pork

Poultry (meat)

Poultry (eggs)

Beef

Seafood

Animal Protein

The Global Context

Marine ecosystem pressure due to over fishing since 1950 will be minor compared to 2000 to 2050

Source: Ponting (2007)

Protein g/kg gain

Energy MJ/kg gain

Gross

Energy

MJ/kg

Crude

Protein g/kg

FCR fed/gain

456 20.7 21.0 463 ≤1.7

462 33.7 15.3 210 2.2

480 39.0 13.0 160 3.0

690 58.6 10.1 119 5.8

Requirements for protein and energy per kg animal produced

Seafood from aquaculture overtakes beef production in 2010

Seafood Sustainability & Marine Biodiversity

The Global Food Supply Gains in Supply by:

Agriculture Farming

Hunter Gatherer Wild Fisheries

Fertilizer / Feed -

Freshwater Use -

Pesticides -

Industrialization of Harvest Industrialization of Harvest

Domestication -

Selective Breeding -

Domestication of Animals and Plant

Terrestrial compared to Aquatic

Source: Duarte et al. (2007) Science 316:382-383.

Land

Aquatic

250 spp.,

4,000 YPB

44 spp.,

5,000 YPB

22 spp.,

180 YPB 250 spp.,

32 YPB

19 spp.,

<10 YPB

“..there‟s potential to further

develop the marine

aquaculture industry. ….it‟s

really Australia‟s „Cinderella‟

ocean resource industry.”

Australian Strategic Policy

Institute

“ to promote Australia‟s security by contributing

fresh ideas to strategic decision-making..”

“Australia‟s marine sector

contributes significantly to the

national economy through energy

and food production………..”

A Marine Nation

National Framework for Marine Research

and Innovation

• National Aquaculture Workshop (August 1999)

set a target of a $2.5 billion industry by 2010 by

being the world’s most efficient aquaculture producer.

Aquaculture Action Agenda Fisheries and Aquaculture

Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, Forestry

“ We must build growth at a sustainable pace,

not overheating – and remain firmly committed to

sound environmental practices” Brian Jeffries (Chair)

National Aquaculture Development Committee (NADC)

Accumulative Aquaculture Production Value At the half-way mark to 2010

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

Val

ue

(m

illio

ns)

Year

Abalone

Pearls

Mussels

Edible Oysters

Redclaw

Marron

Yabbies

Prawns

Other

Barramundi

Tuna

Salmon

Source: ABARES

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$2,800

$3,000

Val

ue

(m

illio

ns)

Year

Wine Exports

$2.5 billion target

„We can do that‟: Emulate the Wine Industry

Australian wine exports

Source: Wine Australia

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

Val

ue

(m

illio

ns)

Year

Abalone

Pearls

Mussels

Edible Oysters

Redclaw

Marron

Yabbies

Prawns

Other

Barramundi

Tuna

Salmon

Accumulative Aquaculture Production Value ‘target of a $2.5 billion industry by 2010’

Source: ABARES

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$2,800

$3,000

Val

ue

(m

illio

ns)

Year

Abalone

Pearls

Mussels

Edible Oysters

Redclaw

Marron

Yabbies

Prawns

Other

Barramundi

Tuna

Salmon

$2.5 billion target

Accumulative Aquaculture Production Value 1992 – 2010

“..there‟s potential to further develop the marine aquaculture industry. …

it‟s really Australia‟s „Cinderella‟ ocean resource industry.”

Source: ABARES

World Fisheries and Aquaculture Production H

arv

est

(mill

ion t

onnes)

In 2010 aquaculture production >50% of total harvest

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Vo

lum

e (

1,0

00

's m

etr

ic t

on

ne

s)

Year

Australian Wild Fisheries

(whole unprocessed)

Australian Aquaculture

Import

(processed)

Seafood Supply in Australia

Source: ABARES

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0D

efi

cit

(1,0

00's

metr

ic t

on

nes)

Year

Available Domestic Wild Harvest (131,184 mt)

Seafood Supply Deficit exceeds Australian Wild Harvest

Source: ABARES

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

Defi

cit

(1,0

00's

metr

ic t

on

nes)

Year

1x Australian Wild Harvest

2x Australian Wild Harvest

3x Australian Wild Harvest

4x Australian Wild Harvest

Seafood Supply Deficit with project population increase

without increase consumption per capita

-600,000

-500,000

-400,000

-300,000

-200,000

-100,000

0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Seafo

od

Defi

cit

(m

etr

ic t

on

nes)

Pro

jecte

d P

op

ula

tio

n

Year

Australian Seafood Deficit We „export‟ our marine biodiversity issues to other countries

The 3rd largest marine exclusive economic zone (EEZ) cannot even feed its own nation

Now you seafood, now you don‟t

Possible scenarios

Continue to depend on the ability to source overseas

supply of „sustainable‟ seafood.

Decrease seafood contribution in the Australian diet

Develop aquaculture technology and production

within Australia to address trade deficit and develop

export potential to supply seafood to expanding

global markets.

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