TheSerialBubbleEpoch,IsItOver?

FrankVeneroso19thAnnualHymanP.Minsky

ConferenceApril14‐16

JamesBianco,BiancoResearch

PerceivedRiskOfEquiNes

EricBarthalon

PosiNveFeedbackInvestmentStrategiesandDestabilizingRaNonalSpeculaNon

J.BradfordDeLong,AndreiShleifer,LawrenceH.Summers,

andRobertJWaldmann

‐TheJournalOfFinance,Vol.XLV,No.2,June1990,page382.

FREEFALL:America,FreeMarkets,AndTheSinkingOfTheWorldEconomy

JosephE.SNglitz

“In short, America’s financial markets had failed to perform their essential societal functions of managing risk, allocating capital, and mobilizing savings while keeping transaction costs low. Instead, they had created risk, misallocated capital, and encouraged excessive indebtedness while imposing high transaction costs. At their peak in 2007, the bloated financial markets absorbed 41 percent of profits in the corporate sector.”

CaseShillerHomePriceIndex

PrivateNonFinancialDebtToGDPRaNo

PriceofOilInRealTerms

MylesZybloc,RBC,April2008

AlbertEdwards,“GlobalStrategyWeekly:Incroyable!FrenchdrinkinghabitsseepintoUKCPI”Societe Generale Cross Asset Research,March16,2010

TotalDebttoGDP

IndustrialProducNon1933&Now

FederalReserve

YearOverYear%Since1972

TheGlobalMacroInvestorIssueNo.62–April2010

PerceivedRiskOfEquiNes

EricBarthalon

CoreLogic