Adapting to climate change:Adapting to climate change:

The importance ofThe importance ofex situex situ conservation conservation

of crop genetic diversityof crop genetic diversity

Luigi GuarinoGlobal Crop Diversity Trust

Rome, Italy

http://croptrust.org

•Climate change

•Water shortage

•Energy limitations and instability

•Population growth

•Development pressures

•Low stockpiles

•High food prices

•Under-investment in agricultural research

Change in Water Availabilityunder climate change, population growth and industrialization

1961-1990

Source: BBC, Tuesday, 8 December 2009. The key effects of climate change. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7821082.stm

Source: BBC, Tuesday, 8 December 2009. The key effects of climate change. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7821082.stm

Change in Water Availabilityunder climate change, population growth and industrialization

2070s

Likelihood (in percent) that the summer average temperature in 2050 will exceed the highest summer temperature ever observed (1900-2006).

Source: Battisti, D.S., and R.L. Naylor. 2009. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science, 323, 240-244.

Change in Temperature

Likelihood (in percent) that the summer average temperature in 2090 will exceed the highest summer temperature ever observed (1900-2006).

Source: Battisti, D.S., and R.L. Naylor. 2009. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science, 323, 240-244.

Change in Temperature

Distributions of average (summer) temperature for 20th century (blue), and climate model projections for 2080-2100 (red) (y=number of summers, x=departure from long-term 20th

century mean)

Source: Battisti, D.S., and R.L. Naylor. 2009. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science, 323, 240-244.

Change in Temperature

Source: Burke, M.B., et al., Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation. Global Environ. Change (2009), doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003

Climate Change and Crop Adaptation

Percentage overlap between historical and 2025 (left), 2050 (middle), and 2075 (right) simulated growing season average temperature at over African maize

area. Darkblue colors represent 100% overlap between past and future climates, dark red

colors represent 0% overlap

Overlap of Future Temperatures with Present

average growing season

temperatures, Sub-Saharan Africa

Perc

ent

Source: Burke, M.B., et al., Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation. Global Environ. Change (2009), doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003

Sources of Cereal Production Growth(2000-50)

EAP: East Asia and the Pacific; MENA: Middle East and North Africa; LAC: Latin America and the Caribbean; SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: Hubert et al. 2010. The Future of Food: Scenarios for 2050. Crop Sci 50.

6 Components of Increasing Food Supplies

Source: adapted from Evans L.T. 2000. Feeding the Ten Billion: Plants and Population Growth. Cambridge University Press

Increase area of land under cultivation

Reduce use of grains fed to animals

Reduce post-harvest losses

Replace lower yielding crops with higher yielding ones

Increase yield on existing lands, per crop

Increase number of crops grown on the land (e.g. shorter season

crops)

Crop diversity needed for breeding

Crop diversityindirectly needed

We Must Prepare for the Storm

•Collect remaining diversity from the field

•Conserve it – securely and permanently

•Screen it for traits essential to meet climate change, water, energy and food security challenges – and also help mitigate climate change!

•Breed new climate-ready crop varieties

Impacts of Climate Change on CWRs

2055

Arachis (peanut, groundnut)

Current

2055

Source: Jarvis, A., Ferguson, M., Williams, D., Guarino, L., Jones, P., Stalker, H., Valls, J., Pittman, R., Simpson, C. & Bramel, P. 2003. Biogeography of Wild Arachis: Assessing Conservation Status and Setting Future Priorities. Crop Science 43, 1100-

1108.

Source: Jarvis A., Ramirez J., Zapata E., and Guevara E. 2008. Use of GBIF data for conserving and adapting agricultural biodiversity in the face of climate change. Powerpoint Presentation.

Impacts of Climate Change on CWRs

Source: Jarvis A. 2009. personal communication.

Impacts of Climate Change on CWRs

•Storage of unique samples in 2 facilities meeting international standards

•Safety back-up in Svalbard

•Secure funding

•Information system

•Facilitated access and benefit sharing (International Treaty on PGRFA)

A Global Ex Situ System

Source: adapted from Palacios XF. 1998. Contribution to the Estimation of Countries’ Interdependence in the Area of Plant Genetic Resources. Rep. 7, Rev. 1, UN Food. Agric. Org. Comm. Genet. Resour. Food Agric., Rome, Italy. taken from Fowler C. and Hodgkin T. 2004. Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture: Assessing Global Availability. Annu Rev Environ

Resour 29: 10.1-10.37.

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20%

30%

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80%

90%

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Global interdependenceFood Energy Supply (calories/day)

= % genetic resources of crops not indigenous to country

= % genetic resources of crops indigenous to country

Source: Payne T. 2009. International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center. personal communication

Global Interdependence: “Veery” Wheat

Country sources - 49 landraces and 66 cultivars from 20 countries

Countries of release - 160 cultivars in 35 countries

Global Interdependence: “Veery” Wheat

Source: Payne T. 2009. International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center. personal communication; Rajaram S. 2009. personal communication.

Source: Burke, M.B., et al., Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation. Global Environ. Change (2009), doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003

Climate Change and Crop Adaptation

% of World Ex Situ Collection

Countries Cassava Maize PotatoSweet Potato

Wheat

Brazil 18 3 0 5 4

China 0 6 0 4 5

India 8 2 5 0.1 8

Philippines 0.2 1 0 1 0

USA 0.3 8 4 4 7

Source: Wiews 2009

Conservation

Use

Svalbard Global Seed Vault

Safety backup

Long term storage: CG Centres, regional

organizations

Active national etc. collections

Breeding/working collections

Farmers

Regeneration(Regeneration, Characterization, Safety Duplication)

•90,000 accessions

•230 collections

•100 institutes

•67 countries

Photos: Instituto Nacional Autonomo de Investigaciones Agropecuarias (INIAP). 2009.

Photo: Mari Tefre; Global Crop Diversity Trust

•300,000 accessions deposited with support from Trust

•Long-term support from Trust for Vault operations at $150,000 pa

Global Safety BackupSvalbard Global Seed Vault

Photo: Global Crop Diversity Trust; Stattsbygg

Photo: Mari Tefre; Global Crop Diversity Trust

Long-term Sustainable Funding

Photos: Global Crop Diversity Trust, IRRI Philippines

•15 international collections managed by CGIAR Centers

•2 collections at Secretariat of the Pacific Community

•Svalbard Global Seed Vault

•Total $1.8 million annually

rice, bean, yam, sorghum, banana, grasspea, cassava, wheat, barley, pearl millet, faba bean, lentil, forage crops

Genebank Data Management Software

Source: USDA-ARS. 2009. GRIN-Global_manual_v1-022409.pdf

Source: Bioversity International 2009. http://www.global-alis.org/

Global Portal for Accession-level Information

Smart Collecting Strategies

Rare traits

Threat assessment: use climate change models to determine vulnerability of

populations

Rare traits: compare

distribution with environmental

factors

Areas of species

richness not previously sampled

Source: Jarvis A. 2008. Protocol for Gap Analysis in Wild Species. Draft Report for the Global Crop Diversity Trust.

Endowing a Global System for a Crop

The Global Crop Diversity Trust“providing a permanent source of funds to support the

long-term conservation of the ex-situ germplasm on which the world depends for food security”