Post on 15-Apr-2017
The only way is mobile
Robert Dossin
Client Solutions Director
SKIM
Drug forecasting in the age
of personalised medicine
The only way is mobile
An innovative approach to drug forecasting –
in-the-moment mobile research enables
collection of robust data close to the
point of prescription
Drug forecasting in the age of personalised medicine
Setting the context…Crowded markets, increasingly diverse patient groups
Setting the context…Crowded markets, increasingly diverse patient groups
Forecast gets
more difficult
No more
generalisation
Conventional methods don’t cut itOver-generalisation or excessive cognitive burden compromise data
Too simple Too complex
- Emotions wear off
- Recall fades
- Answer solely based on rational factors (e.g. hard clinical facts)
+ Based on more softer factors
+ Easier to recall why
+ Answer based on a combination of soft (irrational) and hard (rational) factors
OCCURRENCE MEASUREMENT
OCCURRENCE MEASUREMENT
The only way
is mobile
Account for complexity simplySimplify data collection, but account for market complexity
1 2 3 4
15 minute
online survey
Forms via
Direct mail
Use mobile app
in the moment
Audio recording
after 2 weeks
Simple & quick
to complete
Actual patients, no generalisationCollection of focused, relevant information
Individual, unique & representative data
Valid outcomesCollection of focused, relevant information
16%
43%
17%
13%
38%16%
EGFR+ EGFR+
3%
4%4%
18%
8%
44%
16%
EGFR+
12%
8%
3%
4%4%
16%
6%
37%
6%
EGFR+
Docetaxel mono
Alimta (+/- cis/carbo)
Other chemo
Tarceva (+/- cis/carbo)
Iressa (+/- cis/carbo)
Giotrif mono
Xalkori mono
Clinical Trials
Other
Product A
Product B
Product D
Product E
Core forecast data gatheredRobust forecasting based on high sample of cases
All 4 new
products
launched
Patient share
s
Future Market Future Market
Only A & E
launched
Current Market
7%
5%3%
4%4%
15%
5%
34%
6%
EGFR+
Patient data gives further insightCollection of focused, relevant information
10%4%
13%
25%
11% 9%
17% 26%
25%
22%
25%
18% 21%
42% 34%
50%
67%
38%
21%
31%
31%36%
13% 11% 13%
50%
39%
11% 10% 7%
32%
22%
7%
18%34%
64%
39%35%
21%Product E
Product D
Product B
Product A
Qualitative data provides depthCollection of focused, relevant information
60%
40%
0%
0%
0%
13%
(Very) Good OS/PFS
Good safety profile
Good experience inMelanoma
No Docetaxel: wideapplicability
It is a single agent
Oral formulationadvantageous
17%
7%
0%
0%
0%
0%
33%
17%
0%
0%
0%
0%
33%
20%
23%
10%
13%
0%
Product E Product A Product B Product D
Qualitative data provides depthInsight into drivers of choice
Product E
efficacious
Product D
innovative
Benefits…
Robust data – patient records
without associated problems
Applications in market potential,
segmentation, Tx pathway
Less post-rationalisation,
responses close to point of prescription
Accounts for indications with wide variety of patient types,
or highly individualised treatment (e.g. biomarker-based treatment)
Practical considerations
Some
over-recruitment
needed
Incremental
incentives to
maximise
participation
Not necessarily
cheaper than
current methods
With these answers you can
do the following
Model future
scenariosGenerate
ideas
Update your
product sales
forecast
Impact on communications
Use
data in
comms
80%
Impact on positioning
Clear patient types Differentiation Positioning
increase in
confidence
at every level
Exp
lan
ati
on
Pro
du
ct
Cu
sto
mer
en
gag
em
en
t
Inp
uts
Questions?