Post on 24-Feb-2016
description
The Multi-Scale Integrated Assessment ofSocietal and Ecosystem Metabolism grammar:Theoretical Relevance and Practical Applications
Mario GIAMPIETROICREA Research Professor<giampietro@liphe4.org>
Content of the presentation:
1. Study the evolutionary trend of structural changes over a large sample of countries (82) 1980-2007 showing the existence of a clear attractor
2. A comparison of EU14 1992-2005 showing the existence of clear benchmarks describing the metabolic characteristics of functional compartments of society
3. Conclusions
Would you believe someone telling you that at the next World Cup the players of the various EU national teams, during the monthof that competition, will eat ¼ of what they eat now, and will generatea ¼ of the excrements they generate now?
Total mass = 70 kg
Endosomatic Flow = 81 W
Metabolic Rate = 1.16 W/kg
WHOLE level n
PARTS level n-1
kg W/kg W
Liver 1.8 9.7 17.4Brain 1.4 11.6 16.2Heart 0.3 21.3 6.4Kidneys 0.3 21.3 6.4Muscles 28.0 0.6 16.8Fat 15.0 0.2 3.0Others 23.2 0.6 14.0
brain
heart
liverkidney
muscles
1 kg of brain = 10 kg of body1 kg of heart = 21 kg of body
!!!!!!!!
We don’t believe it because we have a multi-level knowledge of human metabolism!
Whole Weight70 kg
Metabolic rate 1.2 W/kg
Parts
liver2.5%
brain2.0%
heart0.4%
kidneys0.4%
muscles40.0%
Fat21.4%
others33.1%
Metabolic rate: W/kg
Weight: kg
Total Body 70.0 1.2 81.0
kg W/kg WORGANS of an ADULT MAN (70 kg mass)
Liver 1.8 9.7 17.4Brain 1.4 11.6 16.2Heart 0.3 21.3 6.4Kidneys 0.3 21.3 6.4Muscles 28.0 0.6 16.8Fat tissue 15.0 0.2 3.0
Others
brain
musclesheart
fat
liver
Definition of lower level metabolic elements useful for generating a mosaic effect
Total mass70 kg
Total Energy flow 81 W
Others 23.2 0.6 14.0
Metabolic rate 1.2 W/kg
kidneys
HumanBody
Whole Total Human Activity60.8 Gh (hours per year)
Exosomatic Metabolic Rate 18.4 MJ/h
HAi EMRi ETi
Gh(year) MJ/h PJ(year)
Functional Compartments of CATALONIA
EM sector 0.06 2,000 120BM sector 1.95 331 547SG sector 3.6 75 270AG sector 0.15 175 27HH sector 55.1 2.8 155
Society 60.8 18.4 1,120
THA
EMRSA TET
HouseholdSector (HH)
BM
EM
Total Human Activity60.8 Gh (year)
Total Energy Throughput 1,120 PJ (year)
Exosomatic Metabolic Rate 18.4 MJ/h
SG
CATALONIA2005
AG
Parts
BM sectors3.2%
out of scale!
EM sector0.1%
SG sector6%
HH sector91%
EMRi: MJ/hour
HAi: hours/year
AG sector0.2%
1. Study the evolutionary trend of structural changes over a large sample of countries (82) 1980-2007 showing the existence of a clear attractor
Introducing Bio-Economic Pressure as abiophysical indicator of economic development
% o
f wor
k fo
rce
in in
dust
ryIn
fant
Mor
talit
y R
ate
STAGE 1
STAGE 2
STAGE 1
STAGE 2
1980 2007
Infa
nt M
orta
lity
Rat
e
Infa
nt M
orta
lity
Rat
eL
ife E
xpec
tanc
y at
Bir
th
Life
Exp
ecta
ncy
at B
irth
BEP BEP
BEP BEP
STAGE 2
STAGE 2
STAGE 1
STAGE 1
Infant Mortality Rate vs BEP
Life Expectancy at Birth vs BEP
Studying structural changes of socio-economic systemsdue to economic development/technical progress
USA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1820 1870 1913 1950 1992 1820 1870 1913 1950 1992 1820 1870 1913 1950 1992
Shar
e (%
)
USAGermany
JapanChina
Russia
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
Mining, manufacturing,construction and utilities
Services
UKJapan China
RussiaGermany
UK
USA China
Russia
JapanGermany
UK
Changes in economic structure for selected countries Source of figure: MA 2005.
The position of 82 countries over 27 years – 2214 points!
The position of 82 countries over 27 years – 2214 points!
2. A comparison of EU14 1992-2005 showing the existence of clear benchmarks describing the metabolic characteristics of functional compartments of society
How useful is the indicator TET/GDP?
the energy intensity of “an economy”
TETGDP$
MJ
El Salvador = 12.6 MJ/$
Finland = 12.6 MJ/$
=
TETTHAGDPTHA
Year 1997
MJUS$ =12.6 !!!
No significance !No external referent !
Finland = 29.73 MJ/hr
El Salvador = 2.92 MJ/hr
Finland = 2.35 $/hr El Salvador = 0.23 $/hr
(20,600 $/year p.c) (2,020 $/year p.c)
GDPTHA
TETTHA
€/hour
MJ/hour
At the level n – the whole society
GDPTHA
€/hour
TETTHA
MJ/hour
Whole Total Human Activity60.8 Gh (hours per year)
Exosomatic Metabolic Rate 18.4 MJ/h
HAi EMRi ETi
Gh(year) MJ/h PJ(year)
Functional Compartments of CATALONIA
EM sector 0.06 2,000 120BM sector 1.95 331 547SG sector 3.6 75 270AG sector 0.15 175 27HH sector 55.1 2.8 155
Society 60.8 18.4 1,120
THA
EMRSA TET
HouseholdSector (HH)
BM
EM
Total Human Activity60.8 Gh (year)
Total Energy Throughput 1,120 PJ (year)
Exosomatic Metabolic Rate 18.4 MJ/h
SG
CATALONIA2005
AG
Parts
BM sectors3.2%
out of scale!
EM sector0.1%
SG sector6%
HH sector91%
EMRi: MJ/hour
HAi: hours/year
AG sector0.2%
MJ/
hour
GDPTHA
€/hour
Whole Societylevel n
PW sector(production)level n-1
HH sector(consumption)level n-1
At the level n-1 – production vs consumption(Paid Work sector versus Household sector)
GDPHAPW
EMRHH
EMRPW
EMRSA
ETi
HAi
€/hour
MJ/
hour
The metabolic pattern of Germany across hierarchical levels
GDPi HAi
EMRi
GDP/hour
HH THA
Level n-1
Level n-1
Level n
Level n-2
Level n-2
Level n-2
Level n-1
EMRAS
MJ/hour
MJ/hour
MJ/hour
€/hour
€/hour
€/hour
EMRHH
EMRPW
GDP/THA
ELPPW
ELPAG ELPPS* ELPSG
17 MJ/hour
3 €/hour150 MJ/hour
27 €/hour
2 MJ/hour
Level n-2
Level n
14 €/hour 33 €/hour28 €/hour
EMRAG
60 MJ/hour
EMRPS
300 MJ/hour
EMRSG
80 MJ/hour
EXTERNALREFERENT
EXTERNALREFERENT
EXTERNALREFERENT
Level n
Level n-1
Level n-2
Level n-2Level n-2
The metabolic pattern of Spain across levels
Level n
Level n-1
Level n-2
Level n-2Level n-2
The metabolic pattern of UK across levels
BelgiumFinland Sweden
France GermanyNetherlands
Austria ItalyUK
Greece Portugal Spain
BelgiumFinland Sweden
France GermanyNetherlands
Austria ItalyUK
Greece Portugal Spain
Productive sector
Service sector
GDP/hour
Exploring the metabolic pattern at level n-2
HouseholdEner
gy c
onsu
mpt
ion
MJ/h
our
Ireland
Finland
Portugal
Sweeden
whole
whole whole
whole
part part
partpart
GERMANY
IRELAND
UK
SPAIN
1992-2005
1992-2005
1992-2005
1992-2005
Level n Level n
Level nLevel n
Level n-1Level n-1
Level n-1Level n-1
Level n-2
Level n-2Level n-2
!
The metabolic pattern of EU countries across levels
3. Conclusions
The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization
1. Pre Industrial Phase [c. 3 000 000 BC to 1765] A - Tool making (c. 3 000 000 BC); B - Fire used (c. 1 000 000 BC); C - Neolithic agricultural revolution (c. 8 000 BC); D - Watts steam engine of 1765 starting the Industrial Phase (1930-2025) 2. Industrial Phase [1930 to 2025, estimated]E - Per capita energy-use 37% of peak value; F - Peak energy-use; G - Present energy-use; H - Per capita energy-use 37% of peak value3. Post Industrial Phase [c. 2100 and beyond]
J, K, and L = Recurring future attempts at industrialization fail.