Post on 12-Nov-2014
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The Labor Market Situation in January
February 10, 2014
Dr. Jennifer Hunt
Chief Economist U.S. Department of Labor
Office of the Chief Economist
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Payroll survey: unexpectedly weak
1-month change, in thousands January 2014 142 December 2013 89 November 2013 272
12-month change, in thousands January 2013 to 2014: 2,291 Average: 191
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But the longer trend still shows steady growth
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Two employment surveys: CES & Payroll-concept-adjusted CPS
Household and payroll survey employment, seasonally adjusted, March 2001 January 2014
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Explanation
Last month we blamed Idiosyncratic: accountants, motion pictures Weather: construction
So how do these look this time?
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Employment growth by super-sector this month
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Employment growth by super-sector over the year
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Construction saw the largest 1-month increase since 2007 (but this may be seasonal or rebound from December)
1-month change, in thousands January 2014 48 December 2013 -22 November 2013 32
12-month change, in thousands January 2013 to 2014: 179 Average: 15
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Details
Construction (January reference week mild; context of layoff month) Dec: -22,000 Jan: +48,000
Accountants still MIA Dec: -32,000 Jan: +5000
Motion pictures Dec: -11,000 Jan: +6000
Retail (return from unusually high in Dec) Dec: +63,000 Jan: -13,000
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Employment growth by super-sector peak to trough
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January 2014 6.6 % December 2013 6.7 % November 2013: 7.0 % January 2013: 7.9 %
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January 2014: 58.8 % December 2013: 58.6 % November 2013: 58.6 % January 2013: 58.6 %
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LFP has been essentially flat since October
January 2014: 63.0 % December 2013: 62.8 % November 2013: 63.0 % January 2013: 63.6 %
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Long-term unemployment rate ticked down, but remains highest since 1983
January 2014: 2.3 % December 2013: 2.5 % November 2013: 2.6 % January 2013: 3.0 %
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Thank you!
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Deficit, as a Percent of GDP Average, 1974-2013
CBO Report: Economic Projections
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62.9
60.8
56.0
58.0
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Labor Force Participation Rate
Projected Actual
CBO Report: Labor Force Projections
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54.0
55.0
56.0
57.0
58.0
59.0
60.0
61.0
62.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Labor Income, Share of GDP Share of GDP
Projected Actual
CBO Report: Economic Projections
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Government job losses unprecedented
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Private-sector growth over past 5 recoveries
+ 12,737+ 11,970
+ 8,488+ 4,523+ 7,318
-‐2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54
jobs add
ed (in thou
sand
s)
months after the official end of recession
Recovery comparison: private sector job growth 55 months after official end of the recession
Mar-‐75
Nov-‐82
Mar-‐91
Nov-‐01
Jun-‐09
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics