Post on 14-Jan-2016
description
The impact of more efficient new passenger cars on energy consumption in
EU-15 countries
Amela AjanovicEnergy Economics Group
Vienna University of Technology
Shanghai, 2012
Content
1. Introduction
2. The impact of fuel intensity & fuel price
3. The impact of size
4. Conclusions
1. Introduction
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS EU-27
Energy sector40%
Industry16%
Service4%
Residential11%
Others4%
Railways0%
Ships1%
Other0%
Civic Aviation1%
Road transport23%
Transport25%
TOTAL ENERGY 2007: 4000 Mio tons CO2_equ
1. Introduction
Evolution of CO2 emissions from new passenger cars by the European (ACEA), Japanese (JAMA) and Korean (KAMA) car manufacturer associations
140 gCO2/km140 gCO2/km
1. Introduction
E
EREB
2
1
S1=vkm1
S2=vkm2
1
2pr2th
E2th E2
pr E1
Esavepr
Esaveth
E
EREB
2
1
S1=vkm1
S2=vkm2
1
2pr2th
E2th E2
pr E1
Esavepr
Esaveth
The rebound effect
1. Introduction
Development of vehicle km driven (vkm), energy consumption and the fuel intensity of the stock of vehicles in EU-15 from 1990 to 2007
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
En
erg
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n (
PJ)
, vkm
(1
0^9
vkm
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Fu
eil i
nte
nsi
ty (
litre
/100
km
)
vkm (10^9 km) E (PJ) FI-Stock (l/100km)
FI
vkm
E
1. Introduction
Normalised development (1990=1) of vehicle km driven (vkm), energy consumption and the fuel intensity of the stock of vehicles in EU-15 from 1990 to 2007
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
vkm E FI-Stock
vkm
E
FI
1. Introduction
Development of fuel intensity, power-specific fuel intensity and power (kW) of new vehicles in EU-15 from 1990 to 2009
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
litr
e g
as
_e
qu
iv
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Po
we
r (k
W)
FIP-New (l/100km/100kW) FI_New l/100km kW-New kW
FI
FIP
kW
vkW
FIFIP
1. Introduction
Normalised development (1990=1) of fuel intensity, power-specific fuel intensity and power (kW) of new vehicles in EU-15 from 1990 to 2009
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
FIP-New kW-New FI_New
1990=1
FI
FIP
2. The impact of fuel intensity & fuel price
The basic relationship:
FISE YFIPCYFIPfYPfS s )(),(),(
Total energy change from a price change:
P
dPSFIdPdE )(
Total energy change from a change in FI:
SdFISdFIdFISdFIdE )1()(
2. The impact of fuel intensity
The change of energy consumption due to changes in fuel intensity for EU-15, base 1990
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Ch
ang
e in
en
erg
y (P
J)
dE(dFI) S dFI α S dFI
Theoretical savings due to better FI
Rebound due to better FI
Actual savings
2. The impact of fuel intensity & fuel price
The change of energy consumption due to changes in fuel intensity and fuel price for EU-15, base 1990
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Ch
an
ge
in
en
erg
y (
PJ
)
dE(dFI,dP) dE(dFI) dE(P)
Energy saving due to better FI
Energy saving due to price
Energy saving due to better FI & price
2. The impact of fuel intensity & fuel price
Historic development of total energy consumption in comparison to the impact of fuel intensity and the fuel price for EU-15, base 1990
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
En
erg
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n (
PJ
)
E_Hist E - dE(FI) - dE(P) E - dE(FI) E - dE(P)
Historic development
Energy consumption w/o FI&P
3. The impact of size
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Po
we
r (k
W)
kW-av-Stock kW-av_new
Development of kW-av-New vs kW-av-Stock
3. The impact of size
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
En
erg
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n (
PJ
)
dE S dFI α S dFI α S dFIP S dFIP
The impact of better FI and switch to larger cars on total passenger car energy consumption
Theoretical savings due to better FI
Additional Rebound due to higher kW
Hypothetical savings due to better FIP (without increases in kW)
Rebound due to better FI
Actual savings
3. The impact of size
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
En
erg
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n (
PJ
)
E-Hist E-Hist-de(FI) E-Hist-dE(FIP)
Historical
Development without better FI
Development without switch to larger cars
Actual savings due to better FI
Total hypothetical savings without switch to larger cars!
Historic development of total energy consumption in comparison to the impact of fuel intensity and switch to larger cars, base 1990
4. Conclusions
• Due to pure efficiency improvements in the EU-15 about 50% more energy would have been saved (including vkm driven rebound) between 1990 and 2007 if no switch to larger cars would have been achieved.
• This leads to the major conclusion that policies that strive only for efficiency improvements for passenger cars will have very limited success.
• Hence it is necessary to introduce proper additional fuel taxes (to curb the increase in vkm) and size-dependent registration taxes (to avoid excessive increases in car size) to finally harvest the full benefits of better car efficiency.
Thank you!