The impact of international migration on fertility in England and Wales

Julie Jefferies and Eva NatambaFertility Analysis Unit

ONS Centre for DemographyOffice for National Statistics

Recent headlines:

1 in 4 children born to a foreign parent as immigration grows

Source: The Times

Thursday 23, August 2007

25% OF UK BIRTHS ARE TO FOREIGNERS …and more Brits

than ever are emigratingSource: The Sun

Thursday 23 August 2007

Introduction

1. Recent trends in UK fertility

2. Trends in births to mothers and fathers born outside the UK

3. How does international migration affect fertility?

4. Impact of international migration on population at risk of a birth

5. Impact of international migration on fertility rates

Total Period Fertility Rate, UK, 1971-2006

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Year

Chi

ldre

n pe

r w

oman

TFR, UK countries, 1971-2006

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Year

TFR

England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

Age-specific fertility rates, UK

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Liv

e b

irth

s p

er 1

000

wom

en i

n a

ge g

rou

p

30-34

40+

35-39

Age-specific fertility rates, UK

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Liv

e b

irth

s p

er 1

000

wom

en i

n a

ge g

rou

p

25-29

20-24

30-34

40+

35-39

<20

International migration: females of childbearing age

Total international migration, women aged 15-44, UK, 1995-2005

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Th

ou

san

ds

Inflow

Outflow

Country of birth of mothers and fathers, E&W, 1975 - 2006

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2006

Perc

enta

ge

Mother and father non-UK born Mother non-UK born, father born in the UK

Mother non-UK born, father not known Mother born in the UK, father non-UK born

Mother born in the UK, father not known Mother and father born in the UK

Mother's country of birth is not stated

Mother’s country of birth 2001 / 2006

% births to non-UK born mothers

Top 10 non-UK countries Number Numberof mother's birth Pakistan 14,588 Pakistan 17,150

Bangladesh 8,164 India 11,114India 6,598 Bangladesh 8,797Germany 4,047 Poland 6,620Irish Republic 3,662 Nigeria 5,854Somalia 3,189 Somalia 5,639USA 2,848 Germany 4,749Nigeria 2,611 South Africa 4,253South Africa 2,176 Ghana 3,513Jamaica 2,035 Irish Republic 3,462

2001 200616.5% 21.9%

Mother’s country of birth 2001 / 2006

% births to non-UK born mothers

Live births to non-UK born mothers

% births to mothers born in A8 countries

Live births to mothers born in A8 countries

% births to mothers born in Pakistan/India/Bangladesh

Live births to mothers born in Pakistan/India/Bangladesh

2001 200616.5% 21.9%

97,895 146,944

29,350

10,841

37,061

0.3% 1.6%

4.9% 5.5%

1,950

How might international migration have an impact on fertility?

1. Effect of net in-migration on population at risk:• size of female population of childbearing age• age composition of female population

2. Effect of net in-migration on fertility rates:

a. differences in actual/intended family size between – in-migrants, out-migrants and UK population– in-migrant sub-groups

b. does timing of childbearing in relation to migration have an impact on period fertility?

Decomposition of number of births in E&W

Actual births 2004 – 639,7212005 – 645,835

Components of this increase:• Rising fertility rates +6K• Increased female population size +6K • Ageing of female population -6K

What effect did migration have on population at risk?

Effect of international migration on number of births in E&W

• Net international migration between mid-2004 and mid-2005 increased the number of births in 2005 by 8.7 thousand.

In-migration increased the number of births by

16.2 thousandOut-migration decreased

the number of births by 7.5 thousand

• Ageing-on of the population and other changes (mainly mortality) between mid-2004 and mid-2005 decreased the number of births in 2005 by 8.7 thousand.

Differences in TFRs by country of birth

Using LFS populations by country of birth and birth registration data for E&W, 2006

Pakistan/Bangladesh 5.38Africa 2.91Caribbean 2.85Other Asia 2.85Middle East 2.63A8 2.52India 2.50Other Americas 2.47Rep. Ireland 1.98Rest of Europe 1.91USA 1.85China & Hong Kong 1.84Other EU15, Malta & Cyprus 1.72UK 1.71Old Commonwealth 1.57

Estimated TFRs by country of birth of mother, E&W 2006

Change in TFR for UK/non-UK born women

Using LFS populations by country of birth and birth registration data for E&W, 2002/6

2002 2006UK-born 1.5 1.7

Born outside UK 2.3 2.5

All 1.6 1.8

Estimated TFRs by country of birth of mother, E&W

Change in ASFRs, 2002-06, for UK-born and non UK-born women in E&W, LFS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

15 - 19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40+

Age group

Ag

e-sp

ecif

ic f

erti

lity

rate

UK-born

Born outside UK2006

2002

2006

2002

Intended family size, women aged 30-34 UK and non-UK born

(GHS data 2000-05)

UK-bornBorn outsideUK

Number aged 30-34 4235 636

0 children 14.1% 11.3%1 child 15.4% 11.9%2 children 39.1% 36.6%3 children 20.4% 22.2%4 children 5.2% 7.7%5 children 4.0% 5.7%6+ children 1.8% 4.5%

Expected fertility

Actual family size, women aged 30-34 UK and non-UK born

(GHS data 2000-05)

UK-bornBorn outside UK

Number aged 30-34 4235 636

0 children 38.5% 48.3%1 child 22.8% 20.2%2 children 25.9% 17.7%3 children 8.9% 8.0%4 children 2.9% 3.5%5 children 0.9% 1.5%6+ children 0.2% 0.8%

Actual fertility

% childless by age, UK and non-UK born women

16 - 19 93.9% 99.2%20 - 24 75.1% 80.5%25 - 29 57.7% 65.1%30 - 34 38.5% 48.3%35 - 39 24.5% 30.9%40 - 44 22.6% 23.4%45 - 49 20.4% 24.0%

Age UK born Non-UK born

(GHS data 2000-05)

Intended family size, women born in selected countries, all ages

(GHS data 2000-05)

0 children 16.5% 20.5% 10.7% 11.2%1 child 13.2% 11.8% 2.7% 12.6%2 children 40.6% 37.9% 18.6% 39.8%3 children 19.8% 20.2% 16.3% 22.0%4 children 6.1% 6.0% 19.8% 8.6%5 children 2.6% 1.9% 14.3% 5.3%6+ children 1.3% 1.7% 17.6% 0.6%

n 84,375,997 2,190,151 549,983 847,354

India bornExpected family size

UK born EU born Pakistan born

Key points

• Proportion of E&W births with a mother/father born outside the UK is increasing.

• Net international migration is increasing the total number of births via its effect on the female population at risk and via the differential fertility rates of migrants and non-migrants.

• Some (but not all) in-migrant groups have higher fertility rates and intended completed family sizes than UK-born women.

• Non-UK born women are contributing around 0.1 to the E&W TFR.

• Fertility rates have risen for UK born women since 2002 as well as for non-UK born women.

Further questions

• What might be causing increased fertility among UK-born women? Are UK women realising they can’t leave it too late?

• To what extent are the findings for UK-born women influenced by second-generation in-migrants?

• Are the fertility rates of in-migrant populations likely to converge to rates for UK-born women in future?

• How is the timing of fertility in relation to migration affecting period fertility?