Post on 14-Jan-2015
description
The global water and food crisis
Global picture of water and development
Simon Cook, Tassilo Tiemann & Myles Fisher
Outline
• Crisis…
• …behind every crisis is a situation
– more people, more demand, same resources
• The detail in ten river basins• The detail in ten river basins
– 4 water related reasons for poverty
• Some impacts of climate change (very brief)
• Conclusions
Crisis
INDIA NEWS CTOBER 1, 2009
India's Drought Worst Since 1972
India: Drought affects 100s of millons
India: Floods displace a million
Africa: Drought hits region
Southern Africa:
Floods (again)
Yellow River:
China’s sorrow
Mekong: Conflict over hydropower
Ganges: 500 million facing disaster
Brazil: Conflict over water use
Venezuela: Uncertain supply
Andes: Conflict , shrinking supply
Behind every crisis is a Situation
Population increasing
Food & water demand growing
• Food crisis • Water crisis
…Water availability diminishing Reducing per capita availability of water
10
12
14
16
Africa
‘000 m3
0
2
4
6
8
10
1960 1990 2025
World
Asia
MENA
Details from river basins
Conditions of water and food systems analyzed in 10 basins
Niger
Research planWater availability
How much water flows through basins?
Who uses it?
+Water use
How well is water used?
Water productivity of crops, livestock, fish…(kg/m3
Institutions
(who supports / controls /obstructs improvement?(who supports / controls /obstructs improvement?
What are the impacts on livelihoods?
How are water, food and poverty linked?
Potential interventions
Change processes
Livelihoods influenced by 4 water-related factors
1. Availability / ScarcityHow much water is there?
2. AccessWho gets water?
How is it shared?How is it shared?
3. Hazard:Are people hit by water-related problems?
Floods, droughts, disease
4. Use and abuseHow well do people convert water into benefit?
Do they damage the resource?
1 Water scarcity
• More people = greater
scarcity per capita
• Pressure points emerging
– Indus
– Yellow
– Limpopo
• But no simple relationship
between availability and
poverty
Water availability is one poverty factor…of many
Drought
Poor
educationPoverty
From Sao Francisco
Torres et al., 2008
Access to
credit
Conclusions about scarcity:Scarcity: less influential than
we thought
GNI vs Water
40,000
50,000
Per capita income vs. water
availability
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
-500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Water availability (m3/cap)
GNI ($/cap PPP)
Size of bubble proportional to agriculture contribution to GDP
World Bank, 2008
2 Access to waterLocal to international
% of population with
access to safe drinking water.
(From Gleick, 2001)
Who uses the water?
1.0
Capacity limit
Ganges
Sao Francisco
Nile
2,042 bcmNi
Sa o F r a n c i s c o
6 2 2 b c m
SF
M ekong
1,19 5 bcmM Ganges
1,167 bcmG
ET
(normalised)
Andean0.0
0.5
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
Mekong
Sao Francisco
Volta
Yellow River
NileLimpopo
IndusKarkeh
Fish
Livestock
Crops
Yellow
384 bcmYR
Limpopo
229 bcm
L
Woodland / other
K a r kh eh
2 1 , 4 0 2 mcm
K
Grass
Irrigation
Rainfed cropping
Net runoff Rainfall
(normalised)
Who uses the
water?
Indus
200 150 100 50 0
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
Water use (mcm)
How people develop from water use:
Globally, irrigation supports dense populations….
Woodland +
Grass
Irrigated
Rainfed
Ganges
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
Water use (mcm)
Woodland +
Grass
Irrigated
Rainfed
200 150 100 50 0
population (millions)
Yellow
200 150 100 50 0
population (millions)
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000
Water use (mcm)
Mekong
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
population (millions)
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
Water use (mcm)
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
population (millions)
Woodland +
Grass
Irrigated
Rainfed
Relative values better than absolutes
Woodland +
Grass
Irrigated
Rainfed
Limpopo
20 15 10 5 0
0 50,000 100,000 150,000
Water use (mcm)
Volta
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
Water use (mcm)
Woodland +
Grass
Irrigated
Rainfed
…but not in Africa (or Latin America)
20 15 10 5 0
population (millions)
20 15 10 5 0
population (millions)
Sao Francisco
20 15 10 5 0
population (millions)
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
Water use (mcm)
Woodland +
Grass
Irrigated
Rainfed
Nile
200 150 100 50 0
population (millions)
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000
Water use (mcm)
Sao Francisco basin
2 worlds..haves and have-nots
Limpopo
These farmers have access to water
These farmers do not …
Ganges
• Uncontrolled groundwater use
GW pumps in Indus-
Ganges basin
Photos: Fred PearceMap: Sharma et al, 2009
Nile
• Egypt needs every
drop [from Ethiopia]
Mekong In most places this flood would be a
problem…..
To these people, flood = fish
Conclusions about access:
• Infrastructure still lacking in many regions: a
service problem
• Widespread problems of water-sharing: A
resource problem resource problem
– local to international scale
• Governance a widespread and difficult issue
– Balancing demands of water - land - development
– Balancing demands of many groups of people
3 Water-related hazards
• Drought
• Flood
• Disease
Flood, drought: Global scale hazards
Volta Malaria
Disease: Malaria Endemicity: 2007
Conclusions about water-related hazards
• Hazards hit the
poor hardest
• Hazards prevent
critical investment critical investment
to get out of
poverty
4 Water use & abuse
– Water productivity must improve to meet demand
Water productivity:In some places responding to demand
0.400
0.600
0.800
Water productivity, kg/m
3
VN, Mekong Delta
Vietnam
VN Central
Highlands
Mac Kirby, 2007
0.000
0.200
0.400
1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Water productivity, kg/m
Rice
Laos
CambodiaNE Thailand
In some places very high Yellow River water productivity(irrigated)
48Ringler & Ximing 2009
Wprod (rainfed)_
49
Ringler & Ximing 2009
In most places, water productivity is
VERY low: Africa, Latin America
• Crop water productivity
generally very low (<10% of
potential)
• Reflects lower pressure on • Reflects lower pressure on
land resources
• Livestock, fish important
• Huge potential for
improvement
Conclusions about water productivity
• Generally very low
– Major potential for
improvement
• Few data on total
Wpr (estimated potential)
YR• Few data on total
benefits and costs
– Multiple uses
– Net productivity VoltaLimpopo
Nile
Niger
IGB
YR
Mekong
Impact of Climate Change
• On scarcity– Some basins drier, others wetter
– Rainfall patterns changing
• On access (conflict)– Uncertainty makes agreement more difficult – Uncertainty makes agreement more difficult
• Demand for green power
• Flow projections uncertain
• On hazard– Unprecedented events are unpredictable
• On use– Investment of co-factors more difficult
Uncertainty brings MAJOR problems
Agriculture vs GNI
50,000
• The water and food crisis is really a development crisis
• How does water constrain development?
• How does development pressurise water resources?
Final thoughts
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Agricultural contribution to GDP (%)
Gross National Income ($/capita)
What factors are preventing people
moving “up the slide”?
Basins differ in their position on a development trajectory%
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n o
f a
gri
cult
ure
to
GD
P
Volta
Niger
Limpopo
World Bank, 2007
% Rural poor
% C
on
trib
uti
on
of
ag
ricu
ltu
re t
o G
DP
Sao
Francisco
Karkheh Mekong
Andes
IGB
YR
Nile
Agriculture as % of GDP
Niger
Nile
IGB
VoltaAgricultural
Rural poverty
Agriculture as % of GDP
AndesSao Fran
Karkheh Yellow
IGBLimpopo
Mekong
Transitional
Industrial
…so the major issues vary between basins
Agriculture as % of GDP
Niger
Nile
IGB
Volta
Agriculture only
Extreme poverty
Low WR development (no irrigation)
Complex LLH support
(Livestock and fish may dominate)
Rural poverty
Agriculture as % of GDP
AndesSao Fran
Karkheh Yellow
IGBLimpopo
Mekong
Some sectors moving
Pressure on others
Agriculture ‘left behind?’
Increased vulnerabilityMarkets very active
Rural poor in pockets
Improved potential for
ecosystem services
Conclusions
• There is a water and food threat– Will cause more crises if not responded to
• Some clearly solvable needs– Better sharing and infrastructure
– Hazard management– Hazard management
– Improved eco-efficiency (water productivity)
• Solutions depend on political processes– Resource sharing
– Use valuation
– Assessment under uncertainty
Muchas gracias por su amable atencion