Post on 28-Mar-2015
The Global Future of the HVAC&R Industry
Dick HayterKansas State University
Manhattan, KS
A Perspective on the Future
“No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is but the world as it will be.”
Issac Asimov
The Challenges of Our Time
A world population of 6B, increasing to perhaps 10B by 2050
Rising expectations of developing countries
Escalating demand on (finite) resourcesPolitical and economic instabilityPreservation of environment Jim Schultz
What might the future bring?
Building envelopes that serve a dual role as the building electrical power source
Power sources within buildings (micro turbines, fuel cells)
Refrigerant free, energy efficient refrigeration equipment
Overview
Learning from the PastThe HVAC&R MarketInfluences on HVAC&R ApplicationsLooking AheadPreparing for the Future
Learning from the Past
As recently as the last century, central indoor climate control was only available to a limited privileged few.
Learning from the Past-Cont.
In the past, buildings had operable windows with awnings for shade, high ceilings and portable fans. Buildings were designed for optimum natural cooling.
Learning from the Past-Cont.
Raffles Hotel, Singapore
Learning from the Past-Cont.
Learning from the Past-Cont.
Since 1940 eight of the 10 fastest growing cities in the U.S. are in the southern part of the country.
Learning from the Past-Cont.
In excess of 56% of the entire US housing stock has central air-conditioning and 86% of all newly constructed homes have central air-conditioning. ARI
The HVAC Market
“ Shipments of central air conditioners and heat pumps are headed for a record year. . . . For the first time, our industry will exceed seven million factory shipments.” Dave Pannier
ARI Chair November
2004
The HVAC Market-Continued
ARI
The HVAC Market-Continued
ARI
The HVAC Market-Continued
As of January 1, 2003, about 51% of CFC chillers in US had been replaced or converted. (55% anticipated by end of 2003).
38,300 CFC chillers still in operation.
New, non-CFC chillers use 1/3 less energy than those 20 years ago.
Return on investment of replacement - 20% to 35% due to energy savings, etc.
ARI & EPA
The HVAC Market-Continued
7 billion-kilowatt hours/year have been saved because replacement chillers are more efficient.
This equates to the energy consumed by 740,000 households.
Because of less energy use, the production of CO2 has been reduced by 4 million tons/year.
ARI
The HVAC Market-Continued
Shipment-Weighted Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratios of Unitary Air-Conditioners (Less than 65,000 BTUH) Courtesy of ARI
Influences on HVAC&R Applications
“The solutions to infrastructure problems are probably 5% technical and 95% social, political, environmental and economic.”
Civil Infrastructure Systems Task ForceNational Science Foundation 1993
Influences on HVAC&R Applications
1. Energy2. Environment3. Human Factors4. Political5. Societal6. Communication
Influences on HVAC&R Applications
1. Energy“The greatest challenge to the human race in the 21st century will be to maintain and advance our quality of life as we face a dwindling reserve of energy resources.”
Bill Coad, Past President
ASHRAE
Influences on HVAC&R Applications
U.S. Residential & Commercial Sectors use 34 quads (34 X 1015Btu’s) or 35% of the nations total energy consumption
Comfort cooling and refrigeration accounts for 48% of the energy used.
Influences on HVAC&R Applications
2. Environment
“The protection of the environment is more than an economic issue – it is an ethical issue.”
Don Colliver, Past President
ASHRAE
Influences on HVAC&R Applications
Two environmental factors have significantly affected the building industry
Ozone depletion
Climate change
Influences on HVAC&R Applications
The energy consumed by the residential and commercial sectors results in the production of 523 million metric tons of carbon.
Influences on HVAC&R Applications
If every centrifugal chiller had an efficacy of 0.48 kW/Ton vs. 0.56, annual power plant emissions would be reduced by:
Nearly 17 billion pounds of CO2.
Over 64 billion grams of SO2
Over 27 billion grams of Nox
Jim Wolf, ASHRAEPast President
Influences on HVAC&R Applications
Which is equivalent to:
Removing over 2 million cars from the road.
Planting nearly 500 million trees each year.
Influences on HVAC&R Applications
3. Human FactorsComparative annual costs for an office
building in the U.S.Energy: 2-4 $/ft2/yearOperating: 2-4 $/ft2/yearOwn/rent: 10-40 $/ft2/year
Influences on HVAC&R Applications
Comparative annual costs for an office building in the U.S.
Energy: 2-4 $/ft2/yearOperating: 2-4 $/ft2/yearOwn/rent: 10-40 $/ft2/year
Occupant: 200-400 $/ft2/year
Influences on HVAC&R Applications
4. PoliticalDecisions affecting design and selection of
equipment must be based on solid technical principles to be of long term benefit to a global society.
Standards for system design and equipment performance should be uniform to promote good engineering decisions (locally AND globally).
Influences on HVAC&R Applications
5. SocietalBuildings must be designed and
operated for the long term sustainability of our natural resources.
Buildings must be safe!• Free of harmful contaminants• Structurally sound• Vulnerability to terrorism, minimized
Influences on HVAC&R Applications
6. CommunicationThe internet has a profound effect on
our profession. Instantaneous global communication of
data, designs and ideas. Instant access to new technology.Unlimited opportunity for expanded
knowledge through education.
Influences on HVAC&R Applications
www.ashrae.org
www.ari.org
Influences on HVAC&R Applications
Warning
“Is the information valid?”
Looking Ahead
1. Equipment & Systems2. Refrigerants3. Controllers4. Human Factors5. Specialty Environments6. Design Teaming
Looking Ahead
1. Equipment & Systems Improved compressor capacity modulationCost effective expansion energy recovery
systemsReliable oil-less drives to eliminate system
lubricants Improved air to refrigerant heat
exchanger performance Jim Schultz
Looking Ahead
Equipment and SystemsRadiant CoolingNatural and Displacement Ventilation (?)Refrigerant-free cooling
• Thermoelectric Cooling• Vortex Cooling• Magnetic Cooling• Thermo-Acoustic Cooling
Looking Ahead
2. RefrigerantsExpanded use of natural refrigerants (CO2,
H20, NH3)Expanded use of flammable refrigerants
(propane, butane)Trade-offs include low COP (CO2), High
specific volume (H20), Safety (NH3,flammables)
Looking Ahead
Refrigerants Continued Improved and practical approach to zero
refrigerant leakageSmaller refrigerant charge requirementsReduced energy requirements (improved
thermodynamic properties)Jim Schultz
Looking Ahead
3. ControllersBuilding automation will migrate to
equipment-controllers level Internet enabled (cyber security)Better response to part loadWireless Responsive to power quality anomalies
Jim Schultz
Looking Ahead
4. Human FactorsMore sophisticated controllers will allow
broader conditions and use of more variables to maintain thermal comfort (expanded use of comfort envelope, non-steady state control, radiant heating & cooling, etc.).
Improved air-quality will improve comfort (and productivity).
Acoustical controls at equipment and system levels will provide improved environments.
Looking Ahead
5. Specialty Environments Personalized environmental controls
• Hazmat• Emergency Response• Hot or chemically hazardous work
environments Office Cubes Manufacturing Processes Food Animal Confinement Housing
Looking Ahead
6. Design TeamingDesign/Build = here todayDesign process changesNarrower specialtiesVirtual design teams
Preparing for the Future
Your value as an engineer is based on what you know and your ability to apply it.
Standards (ASHRAE, ISO, CEN, IEC, NAFTA)Multinational LicensingLifelong learning-Virtual ClassroomsResearch
Preparing for the Future
As you engineer your future, ask yourself two questions -
1. What is your vision for your future?
2. How will you fulfill your vision?
Conclusion
“Vision without action is merely a dream and action without vision just passes the time, but vision with action can change the world.”
Joel Barker