Post on 23-Dec-2015
World Development Report 2008
Critical Role of Agriculture in Food Security
In ensuring adequate food supply Global food supply and demand (and shocks) National food supply and demand for many
countries (Africa, China, India) In providing means for poor to access to
food 75 percent of the world’s poor are rural, and
most depend on agriculture for livelihoods Essential role of agriculture in providing
subsistence and incomes of the poor
2
World Development Report 2008
Agriculture as a Powerful Engine for Increasing Incomes of the
PoorMajor conclusion
of World Development Report 2008: Agricultural growth is two to four times more effective in reducing poverty than growth coming from other sectors
33
Agriculture
Non-agriculture
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Low est 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 HighestExpenditure deciles
Expe
nditu
re g
ains
indu
ced
by 1
%
GD
P gr
owth
(%)
Agricultural growth is especiallybeneficial to the poor
World Development Report 2008
5
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
SubSaharanAfrica
SouthAsia
East Asia MiddleEast
Europe &Central
Asia
LatinAmerica
Perc
ent
(%)
Latin America
Europe & Central Asia
Middle East
East Asia
South Asia
Sub Saharan Africa
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1961
1967
1973
1979
1985
1991
1997
2003
Inde
x of
cro
plan
d pe
r ag
pop
ulat
ion
(196
1=10
0)
Critical land and water constraints
% of population in absolute water scarcity
Cropland per capita of agricultural population
Global Markets ; Supply Side
World Development Report 2008
6
Growth rates of yields for major cereals in developing countries are slowing
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
Ave
rage
ann
ual g
row
th r
ate
(%)
maize
rice
wheat
Global Markets ; Food Supply
World Development Report 2008
Rising Energy Prices and Climate Change
Price of Urea Fertilizer ($US/t)
Climate change will negatively affect yields in the tropics, 2080
7
Source: Cline (2007)Doubling of oil prices increases
grain prices by at least 20%
Doubling of oil prices increases grain prices by at least 20%
World Development Report 2008
8
Traditional exports
Meat
Horticulture
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 1990 2000 2004
Val
ue o
f ex
port
s (1
980=
100)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
Kca
l con
sum
ptio
n/ca
pita
/day
(1
981=
100)
Changing diets ; Rising demand for high value products (and feed grains)
Developing and transitional country exports
Developing and transitional country consumption
Meat
Cereals
Horticulture
Global Markets: Demand Side
World Development Report 2008
Demand for Grain for Biofuels is a Major New Factor in Global
Markets
9Source: OECD and FAO, 2008
World Development Report 2008
Long-run Prices are Projected to Rise with Current Investment
Trends
050
100150200250300350400450
2000 2008 2025 2050 2050 with 0.4% higher growth in
yields
Average and projected price of cereals ($US2000/t)
10Source: Rosegrant et al., 2008
World Development Report 2008
11
Food Production—Continuing Challenges in the 21st Century
A greater global challenge More from less The end of long-term falling food prices? Trade offs with the environment
Increased volatility Climate change, energy prices Future policies on biofuels, reserves, export
bansInclusive growth
Sharing benefits between producers and consumers
Connecting smallholders to emerging markets
World Development Report 2008
13
Requires Emphasis on Both Technological and Institutional
Innovations:
Technological innovations Higher yield potential to revamp productivity
growth Overcoming key resource constraints (water,
drought) Role of GMOs for poor farmers and consumers Substitution of fossil energy use Adaptation to climate change and reduced
GHGsInstitutional innovations
More efficient and inclusive supply chains Collective action by farmer organizations Risk management for more frequent price
shock
World Development Report 2008
Agricultural R&D Intensity 2000 (% AgGDP)
Agricultural R&D as a Share of Budget, 2000-04
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Agriculture based Transforming Urbanized
perc
ent
Public Spending on Ag (% of Ag GDP)
Spending on Ag R&D (% of Ag GDP)
More and Better Investments in R&D to Bridge Growing
Divide
Source: Pardey and Beintema,
World Development Report 2008
Recent Yield Advances Indicate the Potential for R&D to Reverse
Trends
15
World Development Report 2008
Implications for the Global Community
Do no harm Reform farm and biofuel subsidies Mitigation of climate change
Invest in global public goods R&D (CGIAR)
Get agriculture back on the agenda Reverse trend in foreign assistance Revamp national food and agricultural
strategies
16