The Future Of Labor Markets And Education

Matt Ferguson, CEO

2

The Most Important Number

2.1

Ranking of Countries by Population 1950-2011

Population of Countries 2050-2100

5

The Future Demographic MapPotential surplus population in working age group (2020)

Labor Shortages and Avenues of Supply

Note: Potential surplus is calculated keeping the ratio of working population (age group 15-59) to total population constantSource: U.S. Census Bureau; BCG Analysis

Demand for technology talent is exploding

Big data driving big demand

Growing IT talent shortage

Two-in-five IT employers (43 percent) have open positions for which they can’t find qualified candidates.

35% of IT employers lost top performers in Q2

28% of IT workers say they are likely to leave their jobs in the next 12 months

Source: CareerBuilder’s 2012 Mid-Year IT Job Forecast, July 2012

Talent pool is shrinking

U.S. Bachelor’s Degree Trends: 1986-2006

Source: National Science Foundation 2008 Report

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1 Gaps are percent of demand for Shortages, and percent of supply for surpluses. NOTE: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.SOURCE: United Nations Population Division (2010 revision); IIASA; ILO; Global Insight; GDP consensus estimates; country sources for the United States and France; McKinsey Global Institute analysis

By 2020, advanced economies could have too few college-educated workers and too many workers with secondary degreesComparison of projected labor demand and supply, 2020E Million workers

Bridging The Gap

Business can be part of the solution if they get involved and slow down enough

to bring some people with them.

Labor Markets

• Under-supply of skilled labor in the US now getting worse in the future

• This is especially true in IT and healthcare

• If we don’t educate more of our people or allow immigration, these jobs will go to where the people are

• So if education is the key, what is going on there to help?

The Future Of Education

Big breakthroughs happen when what is suddenly possible confronts what is desperately needed.

– Tom Friedman

“ ”

US Venture-Capital and Growth Investments in Education

► 15 ◄

The primary problem

Late in his life, in a letter to a prominent merchant and former U.S. ambassador, Thomas Jefferson touted education as a guardian of the Constitution:

 

“I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers of the society, but the people themselves: and if we think them not enlightened enough to exercise their control with a wholesome discretion, the remedy is, not to take it from them, but to inform their discretion by education. This is the true corrective of abuses of constitutional power.”

 

Years later, in 1832, a young Abraham Lincoln promoted the expansion of education in his first public speech: 

 

“Upon the subject of education, not presuming to dictate any plan or system respecting it, I can only say that I view it as the most important subject which we as a people can be engaged in . . . For my part, I desire to see the time when education—and by its means, morality, sobriety, enterprise, and industry—shall become much more general than at present . . .”

 

And in 1938, on the eve of the world’s most significant conflict, President Franklin Roosevelt spoke of the close link between education and free society. “Democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely,” he said. “The real safeguard of democracy, therefore, is education.”

The Post-Secondary Problem

• It is an access problem because of cost and debt!

• Enrollment fell from 21.4 million to 19.9 million in 2012

• How are we going fill the jobs of the future if we don’t have more people going to college as the nation grows?

• What happens when the jobs cannot find the people they need in a county?

The Post-Secondary Problem

• The cost is increasing very fast!!!

• Average in-state tuition rose to $7,700 in 2012 from $5,900 in 2008

• Private school tuition is

The Post-Secondary Problem

• $1 Trillion dollars of student loans outstanding

• Percentage of undergrads who used federal aid was 57% in 2012 from 47% in 2008

• State aid for students is decreasing

• 7 of 10 undergrads receive state, federal, or institutional assistance in 2012

Online Education Growing Rapidly32% of Students Taking at Least One Online Course, 2011

► 20 ◄

Online Education Quickly Becoming More Accepted

► 21 ◄

Education Being DemocratizedFast Global MOOC (Massively Open Online Course) User Growth

► 22 ◄

The Frontier

The down-side of online

The Frontier

MOOC

The Frontier

SMOC

The Frontier

Georgia Tech

The Frontier

Thunderbird

What we need

• Lower cost• Skills and competencies• Outcomes• Blending new and old

The Difference

Can you quantify it?

Unemployment Rate0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00% 11.14%

3.78%

Less than High School DiplomaCollege Degree or Higher

Source: BLS, Average of April-August 2013, seasonally adjusted.

The Difference

Can you quantify it?

What does it all mean?

1%

The Difference

A better society