Post on 18-Dec-2014
description
I see…Uhhh…
TOURISM
DEVELOPMENT
S: The future
just isn’t the
same
anymore…
Kurt AckermannGetaway Travel & Tourism Conference 1 September 2011
Ozinsky & Ackermann
SMART PHONES ON
(BUT SILENT)
Conference Hashtag:
#GT&TC2011@kurt_a
Once upon a time back in 2010…
Everyone knows what happens to a World Cup host…
The future
• Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)
The future
• Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)
The future
• Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)
(pessimist view)
circa-2012
Future Tourism Economy
The future
• Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)
(Lovely muck)
Aristocratic elite travellers
Tourism industry as anarcho-syndicalist commune
(optimist view)Future Tourism Economy
NostalgicPython-ic
OK, let’s get serious…
“What ARE the key
developments affecting the
future of South Africa’s tourism
industry?”
First, a brief pause to get defensive…
1400+
industries
No ‘Tourism’
per se
Source: Gauteng Tourism Theme Paper, 2009
‘Industry’
vs.
‘Economy’
Overcapacity!Undercapacity!
Municipalities
Bad marketing!
SMMEs
Poor Service Quality!
National Department
0Global
Recession!
SA Tourism
0Airline Fees!
DMOs
0No
DomesticFocus!
Private Sector
(2010 IMNSHO)
Brand improvement
“FIFA President, Sepp Blatter, has given South Africa 9 out of 10 for organising a successful World Cup.” (12 July 2010)
2010 a
technical and
football success
“I am shocked,
shocked…”
October 2007
“The sobering reality of mega-events is that nearly all host cities and nations learn a hard lesson: they over-estimate the benefits beforehand and get stuck with under-utilised infrastructure afterwards. They face an extended period of anti-climax…”
“Loss of permanent
visitors”
SINCE 2010
Jozi, Cape Town
IRT bus services
High-speed
rail
Photo: urbanjoburg
MPUMALANG
A…the
implosion
continues
TSHWANE…getting it together
BUFFALO CITY
?!?
Rhino
poaching
Source: SAN Parks data via stoprhinopoaching.com
15 July218
31 May173
400+ 2011 est.
TODAY
Tourism
Stats
Bookings DownOver-capacityToo Expensive
Long Haul is Dead‘Oh *(@#!’
SA Economic Output Doubled
“A rising tide lifts all
boats”
South Africa’s GDP
World GDP Growth
Tourism Core Market GDP Growth
Your Traditional Customer
Photo: flickr.com/allforblue
The Pain is Real.
Key Facts
× Overseas and domestic travel down× African land travel volume up× Total spend up× Weak job creation× Government spending up× Innovation required to stay
competitive
Key
Actions× R35bn government investment in
tourism infrastructure by 2020× Resolution of land ownership
obstacles by 2012× Minimum work standards by 2012× Domestic tourism focus× 5 new African offices× More regional programmes
(TFCAs)× Emphasize rural & less visited
areas× TBCSA or similar at provincial and
city levels× National Convention Bureau× PCO accreditation× National VICs using national
database× Grading extensions beyond
accommodation× Government procurement from
BEE-compliant service providers only
Then Now
NowThen
Companies
Act 71 of
2008
Electricity Tariff Increase
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/160
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Sales Price
c/kWh 53%
415%
90%
77%
Electricity
price doubles
twice in 10
years
BRIC + S
Photo: China News
Lion’s share of GDP growth to
2014
Bigger economies than G7 by
2050
Not driven by consumer spending
National Standard for Responsible
Tourism
Cape Town Declaration
RESPONSIBLE TOURISM IN DESTINATIONS
Shaping sustainable spaces into better places
We, representatives of inbound and outbound tour operators, emerging entrepreneurs in the tourism industry, national parks, provincial conservation authorities, all spheres of government, tourism professionals, tourism authorities, NGOs and hotel groups and other tourism stakeholders, from 20 countries in Africa, North and South America, Europe and Asia; having come together in Cape Town to consider the issue of Responsible Tourism in Destinations have agreed this declaration…
2002
Cape Town: Best Destination 2009
Calabash Tours (PE): Overall Winner 2004
Dyer Island Cruises: Best In a Marine Environment 2006 – Highly Commended
Stormsriver Adventures: Best for Poverty Reduction 2008- Highly Commended
Calabash Tours (PE): Best for Poverty Reduction 2004
Voluntours: Best Volunteering Organisation 2008- Highly Commended
Great Plains Conservation: Best for Conservation of Wildlife and Habitats 2009
KZN: Best Destination 2011 - Longlisted
20011996
20042006
20082009
2011
IOC Sport and Environment Award 2011
20112010
SANS 1162:2011National Standard for Responsible Tourism
2011
HighExpectation
s
HEADED OUR WAY
Tourism BEE Charter
targets ratchet up in 2013
Carbon-
constrained
future
?
UNCERTAINTY:
Risk? or Opportunity?
LONGER TERM FACTORS
City-regions
as gateways
Local Travel.
Slow Travel.
LOHAS
“The Good Life”
OMG
+2 billion
people in next 40 years…
Consider 2001 – 2011…
$29.23/bbl2001
$73.44/bbl2011
2.5x increase
in real dollar terms
2001
UNCERTAIN CERTAINTIES
2014 Elections?
WE ARE NOT ALONE IN THIS
Photo: ibntimes
Photo: historymike.blogspot.com
“…The dominion of the West, is ending, not rapidly but steadily. Growth, jobs, expansion, excitement — and, yes, possibility — lie in the great non-Western arc from China through India to South Africa and Brazil. Go South! Go East! That’s the dictum of the age…”
Roger Cohen, International Herald Tribune and New York Times, 13 August 2011
“May you live in
interesting times.”
“Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us.”
Kurt Ackermannkurt@imagineer.cc
@kurt_aAfrika-T.com
Fortune
favours the
bold.