Post on 15-Jan-2015
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The future is a foreign country*
Hugh Bradlow, Chief Technology Officer, Telstra Corporation
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* With apologies to L.P. Hartley
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What does technology progress look like?
What drives technology progress?
How can technology progress change society?
How is Australia placed in the global technology race?
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Outline
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What does technology progress look like?
3
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Mobile
4
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Realistic: Electronic Wallpaper
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Realistic: 3D and Holography
6
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Realistic: Wearable displays
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Picture from the Australian Financial Review, 31 Dec 1998
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Entertainment on demand
8
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Information on demand
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Processing on demand
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CPU Memory I/O
Backplane Bus
Cloud Computing
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Sensing the environment
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Google Power Meter
Security systems
Wireless band-aid
Fall detector Water quality
Air quality
Individuals Homes Ecosystems
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Sensing you: (Context-based computing)
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What drives technology progress?
13
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Computing power
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Moore’s Law: The number of transistors that can be placed on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years
$0.01
$0.10
$1.00
$10.00
$100.00
$1,000.00
$10,000.00 Cost of Storage
DiskFlash
US $
/Gbyte
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Telecommunications requirements
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1.5 Mbps 12 Mbps 26 Mbps
Gaming Triple PlaySDTV
Triple PlayHDTV
100 Mbps AccessSpeeds 256kbps
Ultra HD & 3D TV
64kbps
Web Surfing
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Telecommunications Power
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1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Dow
nstr
eam
Pea
k Sp
eed
(Mbp
s)
WirelineWireless
HSDPA 14M
LTE 150 M
HSPA 42 MHSPA 21 M
HSPA 84 M
LTE 300 M
LTE –Advanced
NG PON2 40G
NG PON1 10G
GPON 2.5G
BPON 620M
ADSL1 8M
ADSL2+ 24M
DOCSIS 3 150M
BandwidthHSPA: 5,10 MHzLTE: 20 MHzLTE- A: 100 MHz
?
?
Assumptions: Top of line commercial broadband services deployed, low network load and burst speeds. Typical customer speeds will be lessSources: Telstra services and future estimates. Future wireless access estimates based on 3GPP standards
© Telstra Corporation Limited 2010. All rights reserved
Technology’s impact on society
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© Telstra Corporation Limited 2010. All rights reserved© Telstra Corporation Limited 2010. All rights reserved Slide 18
Ultra-broadband = A fundamental shift in the economy
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Business productivity: cloud services
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Variabilise cost
Leverage high computing power
Time
Capa
city
Traditional
Cloud Computing
Avoid Waste
Scale quickly & efficiently
Infrastructure
Less reliance on scarce skills
Software
Access data and people from anywhere
Best of breed applications
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Smart infrastructure
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Magnetic Nails
Sensors, Computers andCommunications Devices
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Reduced pressure on infrastructure
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Transformed Healthcare
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Clinic, Pharmacy, Remote Hospital
City hospital
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Empowering Individuals with Connected Devices
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Medical portal Glucose meter
Wireless transfer to hosted portal
Parameter transfer via Bluetooth
Next G Mobile Phone
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Managing energy consumption
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Managing energy consumption
25
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Managing energy consumption
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Australia’s position in the global information economy
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Engineers are the lifeblood of a technological society
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Australia Israel USA UK0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Engineers per unit population*
Engineers per 10,000 people
Roughly the same as USA, but about 57% of Israel
*Figures for 2007-2009
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Engineers are the lifeblood of a technological society
29
Aus-tralia
China Israel USA UK0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Engineering graduates per unit population*
Engineering graduates per annum per 10,000 people
Australia more than double USA, and almost the same as Israel – however, this includes 41% overseas students
*Figures for 2007-2009
China graduates every year almost 3 times the total number of engineers in Australia
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Entrepreneurism
30
Israel Australia0
20
40
60
Number of Companies Listed on NASDAQ
Japan
USA
Isra
el
Canad
a
Austra
lia0
400
800
1200
Patents per million popu-lation (2002-2006)*
*Economist Intelligence Unit white paper, “Innovation: Transforming the way business creates”, May 2007
Japa
n USA
Isra
el
Canad
a
Austral
ia
OEC
D A
vera
ge0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
Government R&D expenditure as a % of GDP (2008/9 or latest
year)
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Technology adoption
31
Japan US Israel Canada Australia0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
ICT Expenditure per capita (2008) ($US '000)
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1984 (George Orwell’s book, not the year!)
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CDMATD-SCDMA
3GSM
LTE
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Australia as Market Shaper in Unified LTE world
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470
MH
z
890
MH
z
Digital Dividend
862
MH
z
790
MH
z
Country specific extra assignment
Europe
470
MH
z
890
MH
z
806
MH
z
Reassigned for Mobile (1980s)
698
MH
z
Digital Dividend
Res
erve
d
USChina, KoreaIndia, Japan, NZ, others
820
MH
z
520
MH
z
Region 3 (Asia and A/P)
Australian Proposal
694
MH
z
Regional Digital Dividends
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Getting to know our customers