Post on 22-Dec-2015
The Future Impact of IT on IS and Library Service Delivery
Bob Hayward
September 24th, 2004
2© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Key Issues
What are the technology trends likely to impact information professionals in the near future?
Why is an understanding of technology hype so important?
How can information managers navigate a prudent path through so much technological change?
© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
The Long View: IT-based Transformation of Business
19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010 20202020 20302030
Silicon Age
Nano & Quantum Age
?
"Knowledge" Age
Mainframes
PCs
Physical Connectivity
Logical Connectivity
Embedded ConnectivityRelativeimportance
4© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
The 2004 Innovation Pipeline Looks Good
Technology Trigger
Peak of Inflated Expectations
Trough of Disillusionment
Slope of Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity
Maturity
Visibility
Less than two years
Two to five years
Five to 10 years
More than 10 years
Key: Time to Plateau
Acronym KeyLEP light-emitting polymerMPP massively parallel processingOLED organic light-emitting diodeRFID radio frequency identificationUWB ultrawideband
VoIP voice over Internet ProtocolWi-Fi Wireless FidelityWiMAX Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave AccessXBRL Extensible Business Reporting Language
As of July 2004
802.16d WiMAX
Augmented Reality
Electronic Ink/Digital Paper
External MPP Grids
Information Extraction
Instant Messaging
Internal MPP Grids
Internal Web Services
LEPs/OLEDs
Linux on Desktop for Mainstream Business
Users
Location "Aware" Services
Mesh Networks — SensorMesh Networks — Wide Area
Really Simple Syndication
RFID (Case/Pallet)RFID (Item)
Semantic Web
Service-Oriented Architecture
Smartphone
Social Network Analysis
Speech Recognition for Mobile Devices
Speech Recognition for
Telephony and Call Center
Tablet PC
Trusted Computing Group
Truth Verification
Unified Communications
UWB/803.15.3a/WiMedia
VoIP
Web-Services-Enabled Business Models
Wi-Fi Hot
Spots
Wikis
XBRL
Inkjet Processes
Micro Fuel Cells
Protein-DNA Logic
Computer-Brain Interface/Thought Recognition
MolecularTransistors
5© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Hype Cycle for Higher Education Technology
6© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Technology Radar ScreenLinux on Desktop for Mainstream Business Users802.16d WiMAXWikis
Speech Recognition for Mobile Devices
Internal MPP Grids
Speech Recognition for Telephony and Call Center
External MPP Grids
Tablet PCInformation Extraction
Location "Aware" Services
Computer-Brain Interface/Thought Recognition
Semantic Web
Service-Oriented ArchitectureUnified Communications
UWB/803.15.3a/ WiMedia
RFID (Case/Pallet)
Social Network Analysis
Web-Services-Enabled Business Models
RFID (Item)
Transformational
Electronic Ink/ Digital Paper
Internal Web Services
Instant Messaging
VoIPMesh Networks — Sensor
Smartphone
Low
Really Simple Syndication
Less than 2 years 2-5 years 5-10 years Beyond 10 years
Augmented Reality
Truth Verification
Maturity
Impact
© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Bluetooth MEMS Real-time DW Grid ComputingLinux WLANs Smartphones CRMPortals iSCSI SANs IP Telephony BAMInstant Messaging SCM Opteron Nanocomputing LEP UWB Software as Services (SOA)Zigbee Real-Time Infrastructure Mobile applicationsOpen Source Search Micro fuel cells Tablet PCs MMS Speech recognition 802.11g Trusted PlatformsUtility computing OLED Mesh networks Camera Phones e-ink IT self-service Network Security ConvergenceSmart dust Semantic Web RFID Tags 4G wireless Web conferencing Location aware services Ontologies Unified communications Metadata management
Some Technologies for 2005
Maturing within 36 monthsNetwork security
convergenceIP telephonySoftware as servicesInstant messaging
Established, wider usabilityUtility computingWLANs
Partial value next three yearsRFID tagsGridWeb conferencingReal-Time Infrastructure
8© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
The wireless world: Cellular networks
Celllocation(worst case,
several Km)
Location precision of 80 M or better
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001 TDMA CDMA
GPRS
EDGE
WCDMA 1x-EV DVcdma2000
1xRTT
GSM
GPRS
WCDMA
EDGE
2GAssume 9.6-19.6 Kbps
2.5GAssume80-100 KbpsEDGE,20-40 Kbps GPRS
3GAssume 200-300 Kbps
Celllocation(worst case,
several Km)
?EV DO
CDMA GSMCDMA GSM
9© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
The wireless world: Depth and breadth
Personal Personal AreaAreaAdjacentAdjacent
Local Local AreaArea MetropolitanMetropolitan
1M 10M 100M 1KM
Nearfield
Passive RFID
Active RFID
UWB
802.15.4(Zigbee)
Bluetooth
Proprietary PAN
Proprietary mesh
802.11 a,be,g,h,i,f(Wi-Fi)
Wide areaWide area
3G
2.5G
2G
30 –180 KM
802.16a (Wi-Max)
802.16e (mobile)
Proprietary mesh
802.20 (Mobile-Fi)
10© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Current Applications Toll pass systems Pet identification Access cards Retail theft protection Electronic parolee tracking
Photos source Texas Instruments
Successor to Bar Codes Can read even covered Can read while moving Can scan at distance Survives water, heat, painting Price dropping to low levels Remain in product for life
Potential Applications Locate common objects Improved asset control Real-time retail-shelf inventory Move to faster or self-checkout Improve manufacturing and
supply-chain efficiency After-sale services offerings
RFID Tag
11© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Five Important Technology Trendsfor the Next Ten Years
User Interfaces "Intuitive Design" SimplicitY ... Adoption
Enablers So What?
Workflow XML-Proliferation
Metadata and Standards
SCM
OutsourcingInformation Sharing
Data/App.Integration RTI, Grid Web Services
Miniaturization SensorsMonitoringand Control Nano... Displays
MEMS RFIDWireless
Wireless Ubiquitous Computing: Mobility and Monitoring and ControlLocation-Sensing
MESH Miniaturization
8yy.xx?
3/4G
RFID
Smard Cards Trust/DRM
Digital WatermarksIdentity Management PKI
New BusinessModels for Software and Infoware
12© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Biometrics2004
2006
2012
Peripherals
Embedded indevices/clothesEmbedded in people
Speech2004
2006
2010
Discontinuous
Continuous
Displays2004
2006
2012
LED, LCDE-Ink, LEP, OLEDRetinal projection, flexible
Augmented reality
Wearables2004
2006
2012
Special-purpose
Are clothes,jewellery, pens ...
In clothes
Interactions2004
20052006
2012
Fixed keyboard
Motion, attitude
Flexible fabric keyboards
Gesture
Enabling Technologies Are Already Emerging
Location Sensing2004
2006
2012
100M+
10M
<2M
Networking20032004
200620092012
PANs emerge
4G emerges
2.5G, Wi-Fi mainstream
3G mainstream
Dialogue
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Vision: Integrated Home Network
KitchenFamily Room
Master Bedroom Kids Bedroom
Cable Cable SatelliteSatelliteTelcoTelco
Office / Den
Media Media Center PCCenter PC
WebPad WebPad
Client STBClient STB
802.11 802.11
Wireless APWireless AP
WMA / MP3 WMA / MP3 Audio Client Audio Client
Broadband Multimedia
Coax Coax Coax Coax
Client STBClient STB
802.11 802.11
Wireless APWireless AP
Home Server - PVRHome Server - PVR
Dish & Antenna
Games Games ConsoleConsole
HD DVD-RWHD DVD-RW
HDTVHDTV
Home Automation?Home Automation?Security?Security?Utility Meters and Usage?Utility Meters and Usage?
14© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Definition of the home “media center”
The home media center is a general purpose capability for transferring, storing, editing, and accessing rich media content such as movies, music, television, home video, and pictures.
– Can be achieved via a single consolidated product or multiple devices connected via a home network
– Portability of content is the defining feature Alternative implementations
– Media PC– Media server(s)– Network connected high performance set top box
D
15© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Authentication Single Sign-OnInternal and External Content
Search and Discovery Content Management License Management Rights Management Linking
Personal Administrative Management (ERP)
Communication and Collaboration
Personal Academic Management (CMS)
24x7 Help
Security/Privacy
A Learner Centered Scenario
16© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Moving to new LMS
Web-Based LMS
•Acquisitions
•Circulation
•Inter-library loan
•Cataloging
•Reporting Tools
•Federated Search Portal
•Metasearch - Link Resolver
•Integration with CMS
•Digital Library
•Portfolios
•Content Management
•Digital Rights Management
+
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Library Searching - Better than Google.
Remote Web Sites
LocalWebSite
Remote Digital
Content
Remote Catalogs
Local Digital
Content
Local Catalog
Vendor Databases
e-Learning Content
Authentication
Available Resources
Federated Search Portal(Library Established Criteria)
OpenURL Resolver(defined by Library)
18© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Federated Search Portal
LMS Vendor Federated Search PortalDynix Horizon Information PortalEndeavor ENCompassEx Libris MetaLibInnovative Interfaces MAPSirsi IBistro and iLinkVTLS Chameleon iPortal
Reason for a Federated Search Portal•Growing e-collections•Hundreds of database subscriptions•Thousands of e-journal subscriptions•Access management of library users•Brings resources together•Allows librarians to direct users
19© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
OpenURL Resolver-Link ServerOpenURL•standardized format for transporting bibliographic metadata about objects between information services. It is the internet version of a card in the card catalogue.
OpenURL Resolver
•links users from citations to full-text, but may also link them to related electronic resources, such as search engines, online booksellers and other resources and services as defined by the library. LMS Vendor OpenURL
Resolver - LinkServer
Endeavor LinkFinder PlusEx Libris SFXInnovative Interfaces WebBridge MAPSirsi SirsiResolverVTLS Vortex
20© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Library and E-learning Integration
Partnership?Integration?
Open Source?
CMSLMS
© 2004 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Recommendations
Academic libraries should plan to offer patrons OpenURL resolvers and federated search portals by 2006 in order to make best use of resources and research support.
Decisions concerning library management systems, portals and learning systems should not be made in isolation from each other.
New technologies offer opportunities as well as pose threats to the existing order and way of doing things. They must be continually evaluated and understood.
Track emerging technologies through devices like the hype cycle and radar screens – don’t jump in too early, but don’t also delay for too long to understand where technology has a role
The Future Impact of IT on IS and Library Service Delivery
Bob Hayward
September 24th, 2004