Technology for a better society

The Energy Challenge; Is sustainabilty within sight

Dr. Nils A. RøkkeDirector Climate Change Technologies SINTEF

CESAER, Trondheim15 October 2010

REC SWAY

TCM

Technology for a better society

SINTEF and NTNU - “Symbiosis at work”

Number of employees: 2175

Annual turnover (2009): 340 Million €

Main funding is from industrial contract research, 7% basic public funding

A technological cluster with education, basic & applied research, innovations and business

developments- covering 3600 of the society

SINTEF - Scandinavia’s largest R&DInstitute

Founded 1950 by NTNU as a Foundation- non-profit

Technology for a better society

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Centres of Environmental Friendly Energy (CEER) in SINTEF and NTNU

BIGCCS – Int’ CCS R&D Centre

CenBio

NOWITECH

The Norwegian CE for Solar Cell Technology

• An R&D effort of million 200€ over 8 yrs

• International co-operation

• Unique R&D infrastructure development

• Approx 110 Phd students and Post doc’s

Technology for a better society

The energy challenge and the sustainabilty criterion

• The Brundtland report defined sustainable development as – "meet present needs without compromising the ability of

future generations to meet their needs“

Or even simpler (Gillman)– “do onto future generations as you would have them do

onto you.“

• For Energy this means:– Meeting the demand for energy at present and not hamper the

possibility to do so for future generations taking care of• Economy• Society • Environment

Technology for a better society

How are we doing today viz sustainabilty• Do we meet the present needs, and the future?, electricity

case

IEA WEO2009

Technology for a better society

Sustainable energy mix?

Technology for a better society

Sustainable energy mix?

WEO 2008

NO!

15%5%80%

Technology for a better society

Main unsustainability issues • We do not meet the energy demands of today, there is a huge poverty issue

• The energy we use is based on unsustainable sources, clearly fossil fuels will run dry in the medium to long term

• The impact of energy conversion on the environment is unsustainable, short term remedies can be put in place but we are even changing our global framework- the atmosphere

• There is as such an urgent need to take actions to deliver the planet to the next generation “as we would have liked them to deliver it to us”

Reuters

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An uncomfortable curve!

IEA WEO2009

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International Energy Agency – suggesting a low carbon diet

IEA ETP2010

Reduction needed to keep global warming with 2-3 degrees

Technology for a better society

Let’s look at the bright side of life

• Can we at least recover some of the sustainability lost and mitigate?

• What does it take to move in this direction?

• No shortage of power

Energy Source Max Power (TW) % of Total Solar

Total Surface solar 85000 100

Desert solar 7650 9

Ocean thermal 100 0,12

Wind 72 0,08

Geothermal 44 0,05

River hydropower 7 0,008

Biomass 7 0,008

Open ocean wave 7 0,008

Tidal wave 4 0,003

Coastal wave 3 0,003 Abbot, 2010

Technology for a better society

A shift from fossil to environmental friendly energy needed

Observations:

Less demand in 2050 than 2007 for fossil fuels

Fuel switching plays a role

Presumes technology development

ETP2010

Technology for a better society

Power production, facilitating the electric society

Observations:

Mix dependent on strategic decisions• nuclear?• use of gas

Main RES contributors• Solar • Wind• Hydro

ETP2010

Technology for a better society

Power production, facilitating the electric society

Observations:

Massive deployment needed

No silver bullet

Rate today is minute

ETP2010

Technology for a better society

Technology Road Maps – Wind power

Observations:

12% of GEP in 2050

Offshore wind power ties in around 2020

ETP2010

Technology for a better society

Technology Road Maps – Cars

Observations:

Gradual feed in of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, FEV and H2 powered cars

Transport difficult to transform, biofuels have little role, use for trucks and air transport

ETP2010

Technology for a better society

Schematic diagram of possible CCS systems

SRCCS Figure TS-1

X

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CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS)

”Key Message: CCS is not just about cleaner coal: a number of sectors will need to develop CCS to achieve the BLUE Map scenario’s emission targets”

IEA CCS Roadmap

Technology for a better society

Technology Road Maps – SMART GRIDS - 2050

Observations:

Backbone for facilitating the electric society

ETP2010

Technology for a better society

Good news – it’s a profitable route!

Observations:

Efficiency gains means less energy costs

Less demand for key energy carriers stabilises prices

Hydrocarbons can be used for other purposes

ETP2010

Investment is approx 35% of 2010 US budget spending for 40 years

Technology for a better society

Sustainable- other benefits!

Observations:

Most actions include other benefits as well

ETP2010

Technology for a better society

There are positive movements though- we need to grow them

Technology for a better society

Is sustainabilty within sight?• We need to invest to get onto a more sustainable path,

these are better investments than banksavings or bonds• More advanced technologies are needed, we must invest

much more into education, R&D and deployment support for energy technologies.

• Sustained use of fossil fuels is non-sustainable, any technologies relying on continued use of fossil fuels are bridging technologies

• They are however urgently needed as the transplantation of the spine in our energy system must be of a fast transformational rather than revolutionary nature.

• Energy is abundant on our planet- the long term sustainable solution is solar power albeit we may have an issue with that in Trondheim

• The question is if we will act fast enough to hand over the planet to next generations in a presentable condition, let’s work together!