The end of utilities and networks – a distributed energy future?Prof Ray Wills

Managing DirectorFuture Smart Strategies

Leader Western AustraliaBlue Australasia

Adjunct ProfessorThe University of Western Australia

Deputy Chair, and Chief AdviserSustainable Energy Association of Australia

@ProfRayWills

Adoption rate of technology What do markets tell us about how quickly disruptive

technologies will impact on our businesses? Natural rate of turnover and retirement in commodities. But, adoption of new technology is often not just ‘natural’ Transitions to new technology will be more rapid where

changes are favoured by: consumer sentiment; policy measures and regulation; pricing advantage.

Be ready to adopt and adapt to new paradigms.Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.

(Niels Bohr)

Roger’s diffusion curve

Wake up and smell the roses

Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs? (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry) Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store) VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon) Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar

Technology adoption rates – US Will solar panels be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??)

NY Times

The Big Bang Theory

NY Times

Technology adoption rates - vehicles

Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption - manufacturers

Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption rates - vehicles

Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption rates

Technology energy use

www.epri.com

Televisions

LaptopTabletComputer

Electricity generation - Australia

Renewable energy growth

Data IEA

Potential EV growth

Global renewables 2014 +>

Electricity market projections – WA

Global renewables 2014 +>

Forecasts not based on experience

Ric Brazzale, May 2013, based on BREE data

Trends in car prices and CO2 2002-2010

How clean are Europe’s cars?

Declining price on solar

Declining price on solar

Global renewables

Global energy – fossil and renewables

Global energy – impact on emissions

US energy sources changing

Solar on Australian homes 1.2 million solar installs in Australia, total 3.3 GW of capacity; output

estimated 4500 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to March 2014. WA – 155,000 rooftops with solar, a total of 364MW of solar capacity Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 7500 homes, 15 MW of capacity

Solar in Western Australian towns

Solar and the utility duck

Solving energy poverty

Evolving markets

Global renewables 2014 +>

Solar and storage fight energy poverty Developing nations can meet modest domestic power

needs with solar. Means storage is already economically affordable.

@ProfRayWills

The cost of electricity stacks up

WA Price Stack (Western Power)

VoteCompass Sep 2013 pre Australia Federal Election – 1.4 million responses

Efficiency in transport Energy storage key New tech may be disruptive

Rapid change - mobility

Electric mass transit Siemens Bordeaux

light rail Hybrid battery-electric Bombardier wireless

battery-electric Bombardier Slim Ride Series 700 Shinkansen

Commercialvehicles

Smith Newton electric truck Diesel Electric hybrids Honda prime mover Volvo Hybrid - Veolia London Bus

- diesel hybrid, and electric CAT Haul Pak + Earthmover Oshkosh Military Vehicle

Flying and floating fuels 25 Feb 08 - Virgin Atlantic 1st biofuel flight (BTW - 1st USAF 30 Oct 07) (Also BTW 14 Feb 11 - QANTAS) 13 Sep 11 – US Navy announces

Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuels operating independent of fossil fuel supply line threat or disruption

And other diesel electric drives - MAN diesel

Smart grids devices and buildings – and microgrids…

Integrated energy planning smart devices (not grids) to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators

Distributed generation changes utility paradigm

Green cities consuming less energy

Global Tianjin Eco-City China Ulsan Ecocity Korea Masdar City UAE

Australia City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030 City of Melbourne City of Townsville City of Fremantle

Local government critical Nimble government Community demand

Increasing pace of technology adoption Big decrease in developmental lag Innovation/development

of new products Supply side capabilities Market competition Growing consumer expectations Higher level of communication

between consumers - blogspace CSR, reputation and CFOs Regulation Energy just a commodity