Post on 27-Dec-2015
The economic situation of the automotive industry
Ivan Hodac
Secretary General
Brno, 5 June 2009
I. Current economic situation (1)
Vehicle Production
Europe World*2007: 19.7 million 2007: 69 million
2008: 18.4 million (-7%) 2008: 63 million
4th quarter 2008: -26%
1st quarter 2009: -37% 2009: 55 million**
Forecast Europe 2009: Passenger cars: 11.9 million (-25%) Commercial vehicles: 1.2 million (-50%)
*Source: Global Insight
** ACEA remark: forecast very optimistic
I. Current economic situation (2)
PC registrations
Europe Czech Republic2008: 14.7 million (-8.0%) 0.14 million (+8.4%)Q4 2008: -20.0% +2.4%Q1 2009: -17.2% -5.9%April 2009: -12.2% +19.0%
CV registrations
Europe Czech Republic2008: 2.4 million (-8.9%) 0.07 million (-3.8%)4th quarter 2008: -23.9% -30.0%1st quarter 2009: -35.4% -40.1%April 2009: -40.3% -69.9%
NOTE: Vehicle production figures differ from registration figures because part of the European production is exported outside the EU registrations in the EU include vehicles imported from outside the EU
II. Industry demands to the EU in the economic crisis
Safeguard level playing field More coordination of support measures
Framework conditions Avoid unnecessary administrative burden
Respect better regulation
Access to finance Solve problem of access to finance for OEMs and suppliers
Stimulate demand More fleet renewal measures needed
Social adjustment Make use of European funds
III. National government support measures: examples (1)
Germany Fleet renewal scheme: € 2 500 for scrapping old car and buying one <1 year old
Tax exemption for cars >Euro4
€ 500 million for R&D on alternative powertrains
France Fleet renewal scheme: € 1 000 for scrapping old car and buying new one; can be combined with CO2 bonus-malus system
€ 6.5 bn state loans to manufacturers
€ 2 bn re-financing facility for automotive financing companies
Fund for the modernisation of the supply chain
III. National government support measures: examples (2)
Spain €4 bn government support for the automotive sector (“Plan Integral del Automovile en Espana”)
€680 mil to be used for loans to manufacturers and suppliers in production facilities
€120 mil support for R&D investment and training
€10 mil for electric vehicles pilot programme
€950 mil investments in improving transport by road, rail and sea
About €650 mil financing facilities for automotive SMEs
New fleet renewal scheme: €2 000 for scrapping old car and buying new one or used car maximum 2 years old
Campaignsunderway
B
S
DK
SK
LT
PL
HF
EI
GR
DNL
A
NFIN
UK
P
IRL
EST
LV
CH
CZ
SLO
L
CYM
RO
BG
HR
TR
Discussions
A: €1 500 > 13 years New car min Euro 4€45 Mn9 months 2009
D: €2 500 further tax rebate for Euro 5/6 cars> 9 yearsMin Euro 4, max 1 year€1.5 Bn1 year 2009
RO: €1 000 > 10 yearsMax 60,000 vehicles11 months 2009
P: €1000/1250 > 10 years, >15 yearsNew car max 140 gCO2/km1 year 2009, extension?
I: €1 500 – 3 000 cars €2 500 – 6 500 LCVs > 9 years New car max 130-140 gCO2/km11 months 2009
SK: €2 000 > 10 years€22.1 Mn9 months 2009
UK: £2 000> 10 years£300 Mn10 months 2009-10
F: €1 000 + staggered tax rebate up to € 5 000> 10 yearsNew car max 160 gCO2/km (staggered)€220 Mn 1 year 2008 – 2009
L: €1500/1750 > 10 yearsNew car max 150 gCO2/km1 year 2009
NL: €750-1 000 cars €750-1 750 LCVs > 13 years (petrol)> 9 years (diesel)€65 Mn2009 – 10
E: Plan 2000E: €2 000 Plan VIVE: interest free loan (€10 000 max)> 10 years, or 250,000 km car max 5 years, max 140 gCO2/km1.5 years 2008 – 2010
III. Fleet renewal schemes in the EU
IV. Support measures at EU level (1)
The EU and the Commission lack instruments and powers…
for financial support (small EU budget, use very restricted)
for other incentives, such as tax incentives
… and could do more on regulation
Consider high cost of regulation on automotive industry
Respect for better regulation and use of impact assessments
Follow Competitiveness Council conclusions
IV. Support measures at EU level (2): 29 May Competitiveness Council
Regulation
Simplify legislation, reduce administrative burden
Utmost caution with new legislative measures
Impact assessment and cost-effectiveness analysis, including non-regulation options for all new legislative and non-legislative proposals
Impact assessments to reflect economic situation
Compliance with new requirements should not cause excessive costs to businesses
European funding
More effective use to be made of the instruments of the EIB and of the Structural Funds
IV. Support measures at EU level (3): Finance and demand
European Investment Bank: Clean Transport Facility Loans for investment in fuel-efficient and clean technologies
About € 7 bn will become available in 2009
Good start, but more funding will probably be needed
Stimulate demand Fleet renewal schemes in 12 countries (scrapping, tax measures)
help bridge downturn (production, employment)
Additional measures needed for commercial vehicles (public procurement, renewal of bus fleet, investment in infrastructure)
IV. Support measures at EU level (4): Social adjustment
European Globalisation Adjustment Fund for job search assistance
Adopt new rules quickly
Do not to establish additional criteria (bankruptcies, closures of production sites)
European Social Fund for training and retraining
significant resources, but lack of transparency and complex procedures
Make use of the instruments available at European level
V. Conclusions
The industry faces the biggest downturn in recent history
remains viable in the long term
needs quick, short-term support for financing, stimulating demand and social adjustment
What the EU and Member States can do Framework conditions: Scrutinise new and existing
regulation regarding better regulation, avoiding unnecessary administrative burden
Roadmap of envisaged legislative and non-legislative initiatives
Access to finance: increase EIB funding
Demand stimulus: Fleet renewal schemes
Use European Globalisation Adjustment and Social Fund
Backup I: Fleet renewal schemes
Country Incentive Vehicle age Duration
Austria € 1,500 > 13 years 01.04.2009-31.12.2009
France € 1,000 > 10 years 04.12.2008-31.12.2009
Germany € 2,500 > 9 years 14.01.2009-31.12.2009
Italy € 1,500-5,000 (cars)€ 2,500-6,500 (LCVs)
> 9 years 07.02.2009-31.12.2009(registration until 31.03.2010)
Portugal € 1,000 (petrol)€ 1,250 (diesel)
> 10 years> 15 years
01.01.2009-31.12.2009
Romania € 900 approx. > 10 years 01.02.2009-31.12.2009
Spain Interest-free loan up to € 10,000(Plan VIVE)
€ 2,000(Plan 2000E)
> 10 years or> 250,000 km
> 10 years(purchase new)> 12 years(purchase used)
01.12.2008-01.10.2010
18.05.2009
Country Incentive Vehicle age Duration
Luxembourg € 1,500-1,750 > 10 years 22.01.2009 – 01.10.2010
Cyprus € 675 - 1,700 > 15 years Ongoing
Slovakia €1,000-1,500
€ 2,000
> 10 years
> 10 years
09.03.2009 -25.03.2009
06.04.2009-31.12.2009
The Netherlands
€ 750 – 1,000€ 1,000- 1,750
> 13 years> 9 years
2009-2010Exact date TBD
Backup II: Vehicle productionCzech Republic and Skoda
Vehicle Production
Czech Republic Skoda2007: 0.94 million 2007: 0.62 million
2008: 0.95 million (+0.9%) 2008: 0.60 million (-3.1%)
Q4 2008: 0.20 million (-22.5%) Q4 2008: 0.11 million (-39.0%)
Q1 2009: 0.21 million (-23.0%) Q1 2009: 0.10 million (-45.5%)