Post on 14-Aug-2015
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF PRECARIOUS EMPLOYMENT
Daragh McCarthyNERI (Nevin Economic Research Institute)Daragh.McCarthy@nerinstitute.net www.nerinstitute.net
The Case for Decent Work, UNITE, 23 July 2015
O V E R V I E W
I. P ro fi l e o f w o r ke r s i n p re c a r i o u s
e m p l o y m e n t
II. I m p a c t o f p re c a r i o u s e m p l o y m e n t o n
w o r ke r s
III. I m p a c t o f p re c a r i o u s e m p l o y m e n t o n
t h e w i d e r e c o n o m y
IV. C o n c l u s i o n
PROFILE OF WORKERS IN PRECARIOUS EMPLOYMENT
PERMANENT & F IXED-TERM CONTRACTS Percentage of all employees, average 2011 - 2012
AUT BEL DNK FIN FRA DEU GRC IRL ITA LUX NLD PRT ESP SWE GBR0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 Permanent Contracts All fixed term contracts
F IXED -TERM CONTRACTS AMONG NEW H IR ES
Percentage of employees with no more than three months tenure
GBR DNK AUT LUX BEL IRL DEU GRC FIN ITA NLD FRA SWE PRT ESP0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 2011-12 2006-07
REASON FOR HAV ING F IXED TERM CONTRACT
Percentage of employees with a fixed term contract, excluding students & apprentices, 2011 - 2012
ESP GRC PRT IRL BEL ITA FIN DNK GBR FRA SWE LUX DEU NLD0
20
40
60
80
100
120Did not want a permanent job Probationary period Could not find a permanent job
TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT BY AGE GR OUP
Percentage of employees with a fixed term contract, 2011 - 2012
ESP
PRT
SWE
FRA
DEU
ITA
NLD
FIN
LUX
AUT
IRL
BEL
DNK
GBR
AUS
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
(55-64)
(25-54)
(15-24)
NON-STANDAR D EMPLOYMENT BY EDU ATTA INMENT
Employees aged 15 – 64 excluding employers, student workers and apprentices.
Lower educated Middle educated Higher educated
GRC 61.6 37.5 26.6
DEU 60.4 36.9 32.7
NLD 59.8 59.5 54.1
AUT 54.6 32.4 34.5
ESP 50.0 40.0 33.0
IRL 48.7 40.4 26.8
BEL 43.3 38.4 35.0
ITA 43.1 37.9 41.0
GBR 41.9 35.1 29.1
SWE 41.4 34.8 30.6
FRA 40.0 34.1 30.7
FIN 38.4 31.0 23.5
PRT 36.8 30.6 31.4
DNK 35.7 28.0 23.9
LUX 29.8 28.6 25.4
SHARE OF WOMEN IN NON-STANDARD EMPLOYMENT
Percentage of employees with a fixed term contract, 2011 - 2012
LUX
AUT
DEU
NLD
BEL
FRA
SWE
DNK
GBR
FIN
IRL
ESP
ITA
PRT
GRC
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPAT ION
Employees aged 25 - 54, 2011 - 2012
Managers & professionals
Clerical, services & sales
Skilled Agric, craft & machine ops
Elementary occupations
ESP 19.0 21.4 24.7 40.2
PRT 19.2 17.6 18.3 27.7
NLD 10.8 15.3 14.6 23.0
FIN 13.4 13.6 7.4 20.1
ITA 10.1 11.9 10.6 21.0
SWE 9.3 16.3 9.6 25.7
FRA 8.8 12.1 13.0 21.0
GRC 6.9 8.5 11.1 29.3
DEU 9.5 9.1 8.0 13.8
IRL 6.4 8.3 7.3 11.8
DNK 7.4 7.6 4.2 7.5
BEL 5.9 6.6 5.8 11.7
LUX 5.9 5.8 4.6 6.9
AUT 6.7 3.9 3.3 5.3
GBR 3.7 4.5 4.2 6.1
IMPACT OF PRECARIOUSEMPLOYMENT ON WORKERS
WAGE PENALTY FOR NON-REGUL AR EMPLOYEES
Estimated average difference in hourly wages between full-time non-regular and permanent employees. Wage penalty for non-regular employees expressed as a percentage of the wage of permanent employees
AUS AUT BEL CZE EST FRA DEU HUN ITA LUX POL PRT ESP SVK GBR-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Men Women
TRANS IT ION FROM TEMPORARY TO FULL T IME
Percentage share of employees in 2008 that were employed as full-time permanent employees in 2011
NLD GRC EST ESP IRL ITA AUT BEL PRT SWE LUX GBR FIN0
10
20
30
40
50
60
TEMPORARY WORKERS & TRAIN INGEstimated percentage effect of temporary contract status on probability of receiving employer sponsored training, 2012
FRA ESP DNK BEL NLD FIN SWE AUT IRL GBR DEU AUS-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
IMPACT OF PRECARIOUSEMPLOYMENT ON THE ECONOMY
IMPACT OF PRECARIOUS WORK ON THE ECONOMY
I. C o n s u m p t i o n & d o m e s t i c d e m a n d
II. I n c o m e I n e q u a l i t y a n d e c o n o m i c g ro w t h
III. S k i l l s p ro fi l e , t r a i n i n g a n d l o s t
p o t e n t i a l
DOMEST IC DEMAND
'97,
Q1
'97,
Q4
'98,
Q3
'99,
Q2
'00,
Q1
'00,
Q4
'01,
Q3
'02,
Q2
'03,
Q1
'03,
Q4
'04,
Q3
'05,
Q2
'06,
Q1
'06,
Q4
'07,
Q3
'08,
Q2
'09,
Q1
'09,
Q4
'10,
Q3
'11,
Q2
'12,
Q1
'12,
Q4
'13,
Q3
'14,
Q2
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
At constant market prices (seasonally adjusted)
INCOME INEQUAL ITY AND GROWTH, 2008 - 2012
20 25 30 35 40 0
0
0
Inequality (Gini coefficient)
Ave
rage a
nnual gro
wth
rate
of
GD
P p
er
capit
a
(2008-1
2)
%
ROLE OF MOB IL I TY IN THE L ABOUR MAR KET
I. G a t e w a y o r t r a p ?
II. Pa t h t o n e w j o b s o r r e p l a c i n g ex i s t i n g ?
III. L i f e t i m e e a r n i n g s a n d s k i l l
d e v e l o p m e n t
TRANS IT ION FROM TEMPORARY TO FULL-T IME
Percentage share of employees in 2008 the were employed as full-time permanent employees in 2011
NLD GRC EST ESP IRL ITA AUT BEL PRT SWE LUX GBR FIN0
10
20
30
40
50
60
IMPACT OF PRECARIOUS WORK ON THE ECONOMY
L e s s t h a n 5 0 % o f w o r ke r s o n t e m p o r a r y
c o n t r a c t s i n a g i v e n y e a r w e re e m p l o y e d
w i t h f u l l - t i m e p e r m a n e n t c o n t r a c t s t h re e
y e a r s l a t e r
TEMPORARY WORKERS & TRAIN INGEstimated percentage effect of temporary contract status on probability of receiving employer sponsored training, 2012
FRA ESP DNK BEL NLD FIN SWE AUT IRL GBR DEU AUS-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
EMPLOYER SOC IAL SECUR ITY CONTR IBUT ION
Tax wedge composition 2013
FR
IT
SE
BE
ES
AT
EL
PT
FI
DE
LU
UK
IE
NL
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35%
ROLE OF MOB IL I TY AND L I FET IME EAR N INGS
I. T h re e q u a r t e r s o f s h o r t - t e r m e a r n i n g s
i n e q u a l i t y i s p e r m a n e n t
II. L i f e t i m e e a r n i n g d i ff e re n t i a l s
e s t a b l i s h e d i n fi r s t 1 0 y e a r s o f a c a re e r
t o a l a r g e ex t e n t
C O N C L U S I O N
I. G a t e w a y o r t r a p ?
II. Pa t h t o n e w j o b s o r r e p l a c i n g ex i s t i n g ?
III. L i f e t i m e e a r n i n g s a n d s k i l l
d e v e l o p m e n t