The Easter Freeze, 4-10 April 2007:An Assessment of Impacts and Services

Ray Wolf and Doug KluckNOAA/National Weather Service

Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop, March 4-7, 2008

Outline

•Methodology•The Event• Impacts•Services•Recommendations

Motivation

“There is no systematic collection of data on the impacts of climatic extremes, and a national effort to begin such data collection is needed.”

Stan Changnon – Bulletin of the AMS, July 2005

Methodology

•Partnerships!▫State Climatologists and RCCs▫State Extension Service Specialists

Agriculture Horticulture Economics

▫U.S. Department of Agriculture▫National Climatic Data Center▫National Weather Service

Central and Southern Regions Climate Prediction Center

Methodology

•The direct support of 3 dozen people across the central and eastern United States was crucial in putting this report together.

•Numerous additional contacts were made in gathering impact data.

The Event

•March temps 2-6°F above normal▫U.S. second warmest March on record

•Promoted early development of crops

The Event

•Early April Arctic Outbreak▫Widespread, record breaking, long duration,

wind•Susceptible crops were zapped

The Event

1237 broken records

321 tied records

April 4 - 10

Impacts

•Over $2 billion in damage to agricultural and horticultural crops

•Winter wheat, rye, barley, corn (outside the Corn Belt), alfalfa, pastures

•Peaches, apples, blueberries, blackberries, strawberries, plums, grapes, pecans, tomatoes, sweet corn, cantaloupes, apricots, cherries, raspberries, pears, onions, potatoes, tobacco, nursery crops

•Fruit trees and grape vines lost in some areas

Impacts

•USDA disaster declarations

NWS Services

•Climate Prediction Center▫6-10 day outlook issued March 29 – 7 day

LT▫Hazards Assessment March 30 – 6 day LT

•Warning and Forecast Offices▫Hazardous Weather Outlook

~½ offices mentioned threat 2-5 day LT▫Area Forecast Discussion

~¾ offices mentioned threat 2-5 day LT▫Freeze Warnings

18 hour LT

NWS Services

•Service Summary – the good side▫Lead time of products was pretty good▫Active use of web pages/media to

disseminate hazard risk▫A few offices coordinated with state

extension services to document

NWS Services

•Service Summary – room for improvement▫More offices need to coordinate with state

extension services to determine threat potential Get away from calendar-based freeze warnings

▫Leverage CPC skill in week 2 in WFO day 7 forecasts

▫Event is an opportunity to research forecast techniques for increasing lead time and accuracy of freeze forecasts

Recommendations (our opinions only)

•Multi-agency assessments of hazards such as freezes, droughts, and temperature extremes and their impacts are increasingly important as these events cause greater impacts on society.

•NWS offices need to develop greater ties with partners to be more attuned to needs related to freeze events.

??? Questions ???