The Current Performance and Outlook for the U.S. and...

USAA Real Estate CompanyCo-Investment Partners

The Current Performance and Outlook

for the U.S. and Washington

Metropolitan Area Economies

September 21, 2011

Metropolitan Area EconomiesStephen S. Fuller, PhD

Director, Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Public PolicyGeorge Mason University

1975-Q1

1982-Q3

% Change in GDP

Recession Recovery Patterns of GDPPast Five Recessions

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1982-Q3

1991-Q1

2001-Q4

2009-Q2

Quarters After Trough

% Change in GDP

Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,

Quarterly GDPJuly 2011 Series Revisions vs. Original

6>> FORECAST > > >

2007-1 2 3 4

2008-1 2 3 4

2009-1 2 3 4

2010-1 2 3 4

2011-1 2 3 4

2012-1 2 3 4

2013-1 2 3

ORIGINAL

REVISED

Data through to Q2 2011 are original and revised from BEA.Estimates for Q3 2011 and beyond are from Global Insight, pre-July and post July BEA revisions

U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2007 – 2013

%Forecast > > > > > >

2007-1 2 3 4

2008-1 2 3 4

2009-1 2 3 4

2010-1 2 3 4

2011-1 2 3 4

2012-1 2 3 4

2013-1 2 3

U.S. Coincident and Leading IndicesNov 2006 – Jun 2011

RECESSION >

Nov-06

Feb-07

May-07

Aug-07

Nov-07

Feb-08

May-08

Aug-08

Nov-08

Feb-09

May-09

Aug-09

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-10

Aug-10

Nov-10

Feb-11

May-11

U.S. Leading Index

468101214

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-6-4-2024

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices

45 Mfg

Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US

THOUSANDS

Aug =+ 1.28 M

Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA

U.S. Job Change by SectorAug 2010 – Aug 2011

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Educ & Health Svcs

State & Local Govt

(000s) Total = 1,282Ranked by Size in 2010

-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600

Information

Federal Govt.

Transp. & Util.

Other Services

Wlse Trade

Construction

Financial

Manufacturing

Leisure & Hosp.

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

U.S. Job Change by SectorJuly 2011 – Aug 2011

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Educ & Health Svcs

State & Local Govt

(000s) Total = 0Ranked by Size in 2010

-100 -50 0 50 100

Information

Federal Govt.

Transp. & Util.

Other Services

Wlse Trade

Construction

Financial

Manufacturing

Leisure & Hosp.

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Initial Claims for Unemployment4-Week Moving Average

400 414

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Aug = 9.1

GI FCST11 – 9.1

Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted

11 – 9.112 – 9.113 – 8.814 – 8.115 – 7.316 – 6.8

Consumer Prices2001 - 2015

Forecast > > > > > >

Source: BLS, Global Insight

Interest Rates2001 - 2015

Forecast > > > > > >

Consumer Confidence

Expectations

Present Situation

Expectations

Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Growth in Total Consumption Outlays

2.5 2.72.8

3.3 3.42.9

2.32.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9

Forecast > > > > >

-1.9-3

Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Residential Fixed

U.S. Economic Performance

0Residential Fixed

Non-Res: Structures

State & Local

Federal

Bus. Inv.

Source: Global Insight

Economic Trends In The Washington Metropolitan AreaWashington Metropolitan Area

Population in the Washington MSABy Sub-State Area, 1900 - 2010

Northern VA

Suburban MD

Source: US Census and GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Share of Washington Area Economy1970-2010

Northern Virginia

Suburban MD

Washington MSA Leading Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change

12-MonthMoving Average

Washington MSA Coincident Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change

-15.0%

-10.0%

12-MonthMoving Average

36 3825

71 6350

Thousands

Annual Change in JobsWashington Metro Area

1991 - 2010

Avg. =

Avg. = 36,000

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Job Change – MOTYCWashington MSA

Annual Job Change – MOTYCDistrict of Columbia

Annual Job Change – MOTYCSuburban Maryland

Annual Job Change – MOTYCNorthern Virginia

Professional and Business ServicesWashington MSA

000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional AnalysisTot 2010 = 681,200

Federal GovernmentWashington MSA

2008 2009 2010 2011

Education and Health ServicesWashington MSA

2008 2009 2010 2011

State & Local GovernmentWashington MSA

2008 2009 2010 2011

Leisure & HospitalityWashington MSA

2008 2009 2010 2011

Annual Job Change - RetailWashington MSA

2008 2009 2010 2011

Other ServicesWashington MSA

2008 2009 2010 2011

Annual Job Change - FinancialWashington MSA

2008 2009 2010 2011

Annual Job Change - ConstructionWashington MSA

2008 2009 2010 2011

Annual Job Change - InformationWashington MSA

2008 2009 2010 2011

Annual Job Change - ManufacturingWashington MSA

2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Tot 2010 = 52,200

15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change July 2010 – July 2011

100(000s)

Washington – 7,900

Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA

2009 2010 2011

Annual Job ChangeDistrict of Columbia

2009 2010 2011

Annual Job ChangeSuburban Maryland

2009 2010 2011

Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia

2009 2010 2011

Job Change by SectorJuly 2010 – July 2011Washington MSA

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total -7,900

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

Job Change by SectorJuly 2010 – July 2011District of Columbia

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total - 5,000

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

Job Change by SectorJuly 2010 – July 2011Suburban Maryland

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total - 4,800

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

Job Change by SectorJuly 2010 – July 2011Northern Virginia

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total 700

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

11.3 – DC

9.3 – U.S.

6.4 – SMD

Unemployment Rate

66.4 – SMD6.0 – MSA4.6 - NVA

Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment Rate

July 2011

Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted

The Changing Role of the Federal Government

in the Washington Areain the Washington Area

2000 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy

Non-LocalBusiness14.4 %

Federal

Other Federal19.3%

LocalBusiness39.5%

Federal 31.3% Procurement

Other 6.9%

Other: Health/Education,Media,Assns

2010 Structure of the Washington Area Economy

Non-LocalBusiness12.0 %

Federal

Other Federal15.7 %

Local ServingActivities36.6%

Federal 34.9% Procurement

Other: Health/Education, Media

Federal Spending By Type1984 - 2009

$ Billions

Wages & Salaries

Total Federal SpendingWashington Metro Area, 1984-2009

Billions Current $

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Procurement

Federal ProcurementWashington Metro Area, 1980 - 2009

$ Billions

|< 80-89 = $84 B > | < 90-99 = $191B > | < 00 – 09 = $519B > |

TOTAL = $794 B

Near-Term Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Areathe Washington Metropolitan Area

Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions

(Annual % Change)

SMMSANV

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Employment Change by

Sub-state Region (000s)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

D.C.D.C. 10.1 10.1 --2.22.2 9.59.5 3.33.3 5.75.7 8.68.6 9.39.3 9.89.8

Sub. MDSub. MD --3.33.3 --25.125.1 --5.95.9 4.64.6 7.57.5 11.311.3 14.114.1 16.216.2Sub. MDSub. MD --3.33.3 --25.125.1 --5.95.9 4.64.6 7.57.5 11.311.3 14.114.1 16.216.2

No. VANo. VA 6.1 -23.0 8.7 15.7 17.1 19.6 21.5 22.1

REGION 12.912.9 --50.350.3 11.311.3 23.623.6 30.330.3 39.539.5 44.944.9 48.148.1

Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000

Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 8/26/11

GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015

Washington

Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

cra.gmu.educra.gmu.edu

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