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The Changing Economics and Politics of Rice:
Implications for Food Security, Globalization,
and Environmental Sustainability
Joachim von Braun
Director General, IFPRI
World Rice Research Conference
Tokyo, Japan, November 4, 2004
1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview
The role of rice at a crossroad
Cultural roots, poverty,
locale tastes and production
Globalization, new science, new tastes
Main questions
What patterns of rice demand in the future?
What future of rice technology?
Why is rice not very affected by globalization and will this remain so?
What future role of government and private sector in the rice systems?
1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview
Rice and Food Security
Percentage of calories from rice in diet
1970 1980 1990 2001
Asia 38 36 35 31
South America 11 11 12 11
Africa 5 7 7 8
United States 1 1 2 2
European Union 1 1 1 2
World 20 19 21 21
Source: World Rice Statistics, IRRI (September 2004)
Changing demand for rice
1. At higher incomes:
people diversify diet away from rice,
shift towards higher quality of rice.
2. Population growth increases the demand
for rice,
3. Growing urbanization lowers demand
for rice
4. Prices matter for the poor
“Favorable Abundance Infinitely”, Chee Wang Ng
Rice and poverty
Rice consumption and production are closely
linked to poverty
Rice as agent of change to get out of poverty
Rice is the main staple food of the poor
Rice is a major source of income and
employment for rural people, especially in Asia
Rice is healthy, but can become more so: bio-
fortified rice to improve the quality of the diet
of the poor
Rice research reduces poverty
India China
Number of
poor reduced
from rice
research
(million)
Reduction
as a % of
total poor
(%)
Number of
poor reduced
from rice
research
(million)
Reduction
as a % of
total poor
(%)
1991 4.9 2.1 5.2 5.5
1999 3.1 1.9 1.5 4.5
Source: Fan et al. IFPRI 2003
Photo by Kyaw Swar Tun, Myanmar (IYR Photo Contest)
1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview
Production and world price trends
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
380,000
400,000
420,000White Broken Rice, Thai A1
Super, f.o.b Bangkok
Production (milled)
Source: USDA PS&D Database (2004); and FAO Commodities
and Trade Division (2004)
Distribution of rice ecosystems
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Asia
Latin
Am
erica
Africa
Austra
liaUSA
Europ
e
Wor
ld
Deepwater
Upland
Rainfed lowland
Irrigated
Source: World Rice Statistics, IRRI (September 2004)
Environmental Issues
Water use efficiency of irrigated rice is low,
requiring large amounts of water
Pesticides and fertilizer, loss of biodiversity,
pests, depletion of natural soil fertility
Complex interactions with climate change and
land use
Yield patterns and developments
The potential to increase yield in rainfed
ecosystems is still vast (positive impact on
poorest farmers in low income countries)
Important scientific breakthroughs have enabled
less favored areas to improve productivity (e.g.
IRRI’s drought tolerant varieties, hybrid rice in
China, and NERICA in Africa)
1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview
Rice: multiple functions of a strategic
commodity in a difficult market
Due to its importance in the diet of the poor and main source of income for farmers
Rice markets are thin, concentrated, volatile: Governments intervene to avoid instability
Historically, policies maintained stable prices for consumers in urban areas and subsidize farmers
Rise of the private sector
Activities traditionally carried put by government are increasingly being transferred to the private sector, e.g. stockholding
International trade activities are moving towards private traders,
The influence of large state trading companies is diminishing
Rice export price, 1983-2004 (Thailand)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
US
$/T
on
White Rice, Thai 100% B second grade, f.o.b. Bangkok
New support policies for rice in
developing countries
Producer Support Estimates %
1992 2002
India -25 +40
Indonesia +11 +46
Viet Nam -11 +32
Sources: Mullen, Gulati, and Orden (2004); Thomas and
Orden (2004) and Sun (2003) at IFPRI
1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview
Scenario analysis for alternative policy developments
1. Progressive Policy Actions Scenario: New Focus on Agricultural Growth and Rural Development
2. Policy Failure Scenario:Trade and Political Conflict, rise in protectionism worldwide
3. Technology and Resource Management Failure Scenario:Adverse technology/natural resource interactions
World rice demand scenarios
350,000
390,000
430,000
470,000
510,000
550,000
590,000
1997 2015 2030 2050
('000 m
t, m
ille
d r
ice)
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource Management Failure
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (September 2004)
Rice yield scenarios
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
1997 2015 2030 2050
Kg
/ha
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource Management Failure
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (September 2004)
Scenarios of world price of rice
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1997 2015 2030 2050
U$S
/t
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource Management Failure
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (September 2004)
Sharon Oliver United Kingdom , IYR Photo Contest
PERCENTAGE of children malnourished
10
15
20
25
30
35
1997 2015 2030 2050
Percen
tag
e o
f m
aln
ou
ris
hed
ch
ild
ren
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource Management Failure
1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview
Conclusions
1. Rice continues to be crucial for food and
nutrition security.
2. Feeding the growing population requires
increased yields. Sustainable rice
production requires new technology
3. There is an international moral
responsibility of high income countries
with advanced rice science to share that
with poorer nations
4. The need for efficiency in globalization. Rice policies shift towards less government intervention
5. Rice remains an agent of change in societal and economic development. Rice-culture has modernized but certainly not vanished.
Rice: a factor of healthy sustainability
in globalization.
Conclusions
“The Great Laughter”, Chee Wang Ng