The 27th Annual ConferenceInternational Association for Impact Assessment

3-9 June 2007, COEX Convention Center, Seoul, Korea

Jae-Uk KIM, Dong-Kun LEE(Seoul National University, Korea)

5 June, 2007

Prediction of Plant Communities Using Regional Climate Model in Korea

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1. Backgrounds

2. Objectives

3. Materials

4. Methods

5. Results and Discussion

6. Conclusion

Contents

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Global mean temperature near the Earth's surface rose 0.74±0.18°C during the past century.

Climate models referenced by the IPCC project that global surface temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4 °C between 1990 and 2100.

The effects of global warming is becoming more apparent on various parts of the world including dynamics in natural ecosystems.

Backgrounds

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Backgrounds

① Camellia japonica L.

①

② Sasa quelpaertensis Nakai

② 1996

2000

2005

③ Quercusmongolica

③

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To choose a suitable climate model in the Korea

To verify connection between plant communities and environmental factors

To predict potential distribution of Pinus densiflora, Quercus Spp., Alpine Plants and Evergreen Broad-Leaved Plants

To assess a vulnerable area in climate change

Objectives

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Methods I

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Methods IIGHCN

Temp., Prep.(1981~1990)

IDW

Precipitation Temperature

mm/Monthly

mm/daily

10yr means(1981~1990)

IPCC SRES Scenarios

GCMs(1981~1990)

Data Input

NIES-RAMSRCM

(1981~1990)

Data Input

10yr means(1981~1990)

10yr means(1981~1990)

Correlation analysis

Selection of Climate model

IDW IDW

10yr menas(1981~1990)

10yr means (1981~1990)

10yr means(1981~1990)

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Methods III

Pinus densiflora, Quercus SppAlpine Plants,

Evergreen Broad-Leaved PlantsTopography

CurrentClimate

Statistical analysis( Correlation / Logistic )

Verification EquationNo Yes

Future Climate

Potential distribution of Communities

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Materials-Climate Models

AcronymCenter SRES scenarioModel Time period

NIES/RAMSNational Institute for

Environmental Studies(NIES)

NIES/RAMS RCM

1981-19902041-2050

HCCPRHadley Centre forClimate Prediction

and ResearchHadCM3 1950-2099A2 B2

CSIROAustralia’s CommonWealth Scientific andIndustrial Research

OrganizationCSIRO-Mk2 1990-2100A1 A2 B1 B2

CCCmaCanadian Center for

Climate Modeling and Analysis

CGCM2 1900-2100A2 B2

CCSR/NIES

Center for ClimateResearch Studies

(CCSR)National Institute for

Environmental Studies(NIES)

CCSR/NIES AGCM

+CCSR OGCM1890-2100A1 A2 B1 B2

A2

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Materials-Climate ModelsCCSR-NIES CGCM2

CSIRO-Mk2 HadCM3

NIES-RAMS

General Circulation Model Regional Climate Model

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Materials-SRES

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Dominant

CommunitiesRatio (%)

Pinus densiflora 56.2

Quercus Spp. 30.4

Alpine Plants 0.26

Evergreen

Broad-Leaved Plants0.16

Total : 170 communities

Materials-Plant communities

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Materials-Plant communities

Dominant CommunitiesPinus

densifloraPinus densiflora (1)

Quercus Spp.Quercus acutissima, Quercus aliena, Quercus dentata, Quercus grosseserrata, Quercus mongolica, Quercus serrata, Quercus variabilis (7)

Alpine Plants

Abies holophylla, Abies koreana, Abies nephrolepis, Betula ermanii, Betula platyphylla, Empetrum nigrum var. japonicum, Juniperus chinensis var. sargentii, Juniperus rigida, Pinus koraiensis, Pinus pumila, Rhododendron mucronulatum var. ciliatum, Taxus cuspidata, Thuja koraiensis, Thuja orientalis L. (14)

EvergreenBroad-Leaved

Plants

Castanopsis cuspidata var. sieboldii, Castanopsis cuspidata var. thunbergii, Camellia japonica L., Cinnamomum japonicum, Daphniphyllum macropodum, Elaeagnus macrophylla, Ilex integra, Litsea japonica, Machilus thunbergii, Quercus acuta, Quercus myrsinaefolia (11)

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Categories Factors (16)

ClimateMean temperature (yearly, January, August, Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter), Total precipitation (yearly, Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter)

Topography Elevation

Index Warmth index, Coldness index, Holdridge index

Materials-Environmental factors

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Temperature

Results-Current climate (1971~2000)

Precipitation

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HADCM3 GCM CSIRO-Mk2 GCM CGCM2 GCM CCSR/NIES GCM

Results-Future climate (2050)

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NIES/RAMS RCM (Temperature)

Results-Future climate (2050)

NIES/RAMS RCM (Precipitation)

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Results-4GCMs vs 1RCM (1981~1990)

Temperature Precipitation

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Ranges Means

Area 56.2 %

Elevation (m) 1~1,492 312.1

Mean temperature

(℃)1.5~14.8 10.5

Total precipitation

( ㎜ )971.2~1,741.5 1,252.3

Warmth index (month·℃)

34.3~120.3 89.3

Results-Pinus densiflora

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Results-Pinus densiflora

Pinus densiflora = 0.0015×DEM – 0.00252×Ptotal + 0.0175×Tdjf + 1.8593

Present (1990) Simulated (1971~2000)

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Results-Pinus densifloraNIESRAMSPredicted (2041~2050)

CCSRNIESPredicted (2041~2050)

CRIRO-Mk2Predicted (2041~2050)

HADCM3Predicted (2041~2050)

CGCM2Predicted (2041~2050)

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Results-Pinus densiflora

Ratio (%)

MoreReduced

17.5

Reduced 32.2

No change 49.6

Expanded 0.6

MoreExpanded

0.0

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Ranges Means

Area 30.4 %

Elevation (m) 1~1,641 509.3

Mean temperature

(℃)2.0~15.9 9.0

Total precipitation

( ㎜ )973.6~1,809.9 1,298.4

Warmth index (month·℃)

36.8~130.7 79.4

Results-Quercus Spp.

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Results-Quercus Spp.Present (1990) Simulated (1971~2000)

Quercus Spp. = 0.2405×CI – 0.00461×DEM – 1.0309×Tmin – 1.3920

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Results-Quercus Spp.CCSRNIESPredicted (2041~2050)

CGCM2Predicted (2041~2050)

CRIRO-Mk2Predicted (2041~2050)

HADCM3Predicted (2041~2050)

NIESRAMSPredicted (2041~2050)

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Results-Quercus Spp.

Ratio (%)

MoreReduced

5.7

Reduced 6.9

No change 83.4

Expanded 1.3

MoreExpanded

2.8

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ranges means

Area 0.26 %

Elevation (m) 86~1,824 1,024.1

Mean temperature

(℃)1.2~15.9 5.7

Total precipitation

( ㎜ )1,019.2~1,837.7 1,346.7

Warmth index (month·℃)

30.9~130.6 57.3

Results-Alpine Plants

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Results-Alpine PlantsPresent (1990) Simulated (1971~2000)

Alpine plants = 0.2586×WI + 0.00434×DEM – 0.0029×Ttotal – 1.8873×Tmam – 10.8265

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Results-Alpine PlantsCCSRNIESPredicted (2041~2050)

CGCM2Predicted (2041~2050)

HADCM3Predicted (2041~2050)

CRIRO-Mk2Predicted (2041~2050)

NIESRAMSPredicted (2041~2050)

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Results-Alpine Plants

Ratio (%)

MoreReduced

1.5

Reduced 1.9

No change 96.0

Expanded 0.6

MoreExpanded

-

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ranges means

Area 0.16 %

Elevation (m) 1~626 197.4

Mean temperature

(℃)10.9~16.3 13.4

Total precipitation

( ㎜ )960.8~1,853.1 1,374.5

Warmth index (month·℃)

84.9~135.4 106.1

Results-Evergreen Broad-Leaved Plants

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Results-Evergreen Broad-Leaved PlantsPresent (1990) Simulated (1971~2000)

Evergreen Broad-Leaved Plants = 0.6503×CI – 0.7949×Tmin

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Results-Evergreen Broad-Leaved PlantsCCSRNIESPredicted (2041~2050)

CGCM2Predicted (2041~2050)

CRIRO-Mk2Predicted (2041~2050)

HADCM3Predicted (2041~2050)

NIESRAMSPredicted (2041~2050)

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Results-Evergreen Broad-Leaved Plants

Ratio (%)

MoreReduced

0.3

Reduced 0.3

No change 89.7

Expanded 5.3

MoreExpanded

4.4

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Results-vulnerable area

Ratio (%)

Morereduced Grade 1 2.8

Grade 2 3.3

Grade 3 15.0

Grade 4 33.9No

change Grade 5 34.2

Grade 6 5.6

Grade 7 4.9

Grade 8 0.2More

expanded Grade 9 0.0

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Conclusion

Achievements

To challenges associated with predicting and assessing the future climate using RCM distribution of communities to climate change in Korea

Limitations and Considerations

To examine the potential distribution of communities by correlating the environmental factors without reflecting the natural succession processes

Variabilities of multiple RCM output results under various climate change scenarios were not sufficiently considered

Ground truth field surveys to enhance the accuracy of the results were not conducted