Post on 09-Jan-2017
The 2016 Elections: Exit Polls and Trumpismo
Presented at the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research
Austin, TexasMay 14, 2016
Gary Langer, Chad Kiewiet de Jonge and Gregory HolykLanger Research Associates
Aug-
08No
v-08
Feb-
09M
ay-0
9Au
g-09
Nov-
09Fe
b-10
May
-10
Aug-
10No
v-10
Feb-
11M
ay-1
1Au
g-11
Nov-
11Fe
b-12
May
-12
Aug-
12No
v-12
Feb-
13M
ay-1
3Au
g-13
Nov-
13Fe
b-14
May
-14
Aug-
14No
v-14
Feb-
15M
ay-1
5Au
g-15
Nov-
15Fe
b-16
Unemployment RateAug. 2008 - present
Bureau of Labor Statistics
10.0
6.1
5.0
10.89.8
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.019
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
16
U6 RatePercent unemployed or marginally attached
Bureau of Labor Statistics
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%19
4819
5019
5219
5419
5619
5819
6019
6219
6419
6619
6819
7019
7219
7419
7619
7819
8019
8219
8419
8619
8819
9019
9219
9419
9619
9820
0020
0220
0420
0620
0820
1020
1220
1420
16
Long-term UnemploymentPercentage of those unemployed for 27 weeks or more
Bureau of Labor Statistics
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Median weekly earnings1979-2014
Bureau of Labor Statistics
No college degree
Bachelor’s degree and higher
68% of U.S. population >25
-9.1%
+22.6%
4/24
/16
4/3/
163/
13/1
62/
21/1
61/
31/1
61/
10/1
612
/20/
1511
/29/
1511
/8/1
510
/18/
159/
27/1
59/
6/15
8/16
/15
7/26
/15
7/5/
156/
14/1
55/
24/1
55/
3/15
4/12
/15
3/22
/15
3/1/
152/
8/15
1/18
/15
12/2
8/14
12/7
/14
11/1
6/14
10/2
6/14
10/5
/14
9/14
/14
9/24
/14
8/3/
147/
13/1
46/
22/1
46/
1/14
5/11
/14
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
<$50K$50-100K $100K+
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index by Income
20142012201020082006200420022000199819961994199219901988198620
30
40
50
60
70
80
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
CCI yearly averageRe-election rate
Axis Title
Consumer Comfort and House Re-election RateBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Correlation: .74
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7Party ID excluding independentsParty Identification and Ideology:
Annual Average Correlation, 1981-2016ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls
So, let’s have an election
Question 1: Who shows up?
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 2000 2004 2008 20160%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
31%
24%
62%
0.16
0.25
Liberal Very liberal
Democratic Primaries: % LiberalsExit polls
1976 1980 1988 1992 1996 2000 2008 2012 20160%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
38%
32%
76%
0.22
0.33
Conservative Very conservative
Republican Primaries: % ConservativesExit polls
1976 1980 1988 1992 2000 2008 20160%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
47%
32%
51%
22%
Moderate (D) Moderate (R)
Dem and Rep Primaries: % ModeratesExit polls
Democratic Party Republican Party0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
42%
51%58%
49%
Men Women
Gender by Political Party2016 exit polls
Democratic Party Republican Party0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
61%
90%
39%
10%
25%
Whites Nonwhites NET Blacks Hispanics
Race by Political Party2016 exit polls
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 2000 2004 2008 201640%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
49%
58%
Democratic Primaries: % WomenExit polls
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 2000 2004 2008 20160%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
10%
25%
2%
9%
Blacks Hispanics
Democratic Primaries: % Blacks, HispanicsExit polls
1976 1984 1988 1992 2000 2004 2008 20160%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
25%
16%17%
Age 18-29
Democratic Primaries: Age 18-29Exit polls
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
62%
50% 48%
71%78%
62%
37%
49% 50%
28%21%
38%
Clinton Sanders
Democratic Primary Vote by Groups2016 exit polls
18-29_x000d_(17%)
30-44_x000d_(23%)
45-64_x000d_(40%)
65+_x000d_(21%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
28%
50%
65%72%71%
49%
33%26%
Clinton Sanders
Democratic Primary Vote by Age2016 exit polls
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
30% 28% 27%
13%
Democratic Primary: Attributes2016 exit polls
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
87%
42%
26%
81%
12%
56%
73%
18%
Clinton Sanders
Dem. Primary Vote by Attribute2016 exit polls
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
54%
30%
12%
84%
14%
Democratic Primary: Issues2016 exit polls
Continue O
bama's
_x00
0...
More_x0
00d_li
beral...
Less_
x000
d_libera
l...
Econ. s
ys._x
000d
_favo
r...
Fair_x
000d
_to m
ost...
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
73%
32%
45%
57%
72%
27%
67%
49%42%
25%
Clinton Sanders
Dem. Primary Vote by Issues2016 exit polls
81%
15%
40% 39%45%
11%
40%
52%
66%
34%
54%
7%
Democratic primary voters Republican primary voters
Dem-Rep Issue Comparisons2016 exit polls
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
68%
27%
41%
53%
Republican Primaries: Issues2016 exit polls
35%
47%
36%43% 41% 38%
43%
26% 27%
42%
23%
14%
34%
19%18%
10% 7%14%
25%
10%
20%
Trump Cruz Kasich
Rep. Primary Vote: Groups2016 exit polls
68%
8%
50% 49%53%
18%
36%28% 28% 30%
5%
26%
8% 9% 7%
Trump Cruz Kasich
Rep. Primary Vote: Issues2016 exit polls
Divisive Energizing Definitely Probably No0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
58%
39%
23% 26%
48%
Rep. Primary Impacts2016 exit polls
Vote for Trump in November – among non-Trump supporters
Trumpismo
The Roots of Trumpismo
The Roots of Trumpismo
Economic discontent
Pushback against ”others”
Valuing authority
Populism
What factors best explain Trump’s support?
Economic Discontent?
Valuing Traditional Authority?
Populism?
Pushback Against “Others”
Modeling Trumpismo: Primaries
Economic discontent
Pushback against ”others”
Valuing authority
PopulismTrump
Support vs. GOP
Modeling Trumpismo: Primaries
Economic discontent
Pushback against ”others”
Valuing authority
PopulismTrump
Support vs. GOP
Modeling Trumpismo: General Election
Economic disconten
t
Pushback against ”others”
Valuing authority
PopulismTrump
Support vs.
Clinton
Better/worse under
Obama
Modeling Trumpismo: General Election
Economic disconten
t
Pushback against ”others”
Valuing authority
PopulismTrump
Support vs.
Clinton
Better/worse under
Obama
Modeling Trumpismo: General Election
Economic disconten
t
Pushback against ”others”
Valuing authority
PopulismTrump
Support vs.
Clinton
Better/worse under
Obama
The 2016 Elections: Exit Polls and Trumpismo
Thank you!