THE 2000 HURRICANE SEASON

THE 2000 HURRICANE SEASON

Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center

WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN

NOAA/NESDISHURRICANE ISAAC

SEASON HIGHLIGHTS (1)SEASON HIGHLIGHTS (1)

• Above average activity: 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes (avg=10/6/2.5), and one unnamed ST. All named storms occurred during August, September, and October.

• Three-year (98-00) total of 26 hurricanes ties all time record (49-51) for hurricane frequency. Six-year total of 81 named storms and 49 hurricanes is a record.

• Many weak systems (4 TD’s, plus 4 TS’s with winds of 45 kt). First operational subtropical cyclone since 1992. Four of the 15 systems had subtropical origins.

• Above average activity: 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes (avg=10/6/2.5), and one unnamed ST. All named storms occurred during August, September, and October.

• Three-year (98-00) total of 26 hurricanes ties all time record (49-51) for hurricane frequency. Six-year total of 81 named storms and 49 hurricanes is a record.

• Many weak systems (4 TD’s, plus 4 TS’s with winds of 45 kt). First operational subtropical cyclone since 1992. Four of the 15 systems had subtropical origins.

SEASON HIGHLIGHTS (2)SEASON HIGHLIGHTS (2)

• No U.S. landfalling hurricanes (19th time in last 102 years). 1951 and 1990 also had 8 hurricanes with no U.S. landfalls.

• 49 deaths (5 in U.S.). U.S. casualties include three drownings from dangerous surf/waves from Hurricane Florence (~300 miles away) and one from Isaac.

• Minimal U.S. damage ($27M) due to tropical cyclones, but antecedent disturbance to T.S. Leslie combined with a stalled frontal zone to produce $950 M in flooding damage.

• No U.S. landfalling hurricanes (19th time in last 102 years). 1951 and 1990 also had 8 hurricanes with no U.S. landfalls.

• 49 deaths (5 in U.S.). U.S. casualties include three drownings from dangerous surf/waves from Hurricane Florence (~300 miles away) and one from Isaac.

• Minimal U.S. damage ($27M) due to tropical cyclones, but antecedent disturbance to T.S. Leslie combined with a stalled frontal zone to produce $950 M in flooding damage.

ALBERTO

ALBERTO

BERYL

CHRIS

DEBBY

DEBBYERNESTO

FLORENCE

GO

RD

ON

GORDON

HELENE

HELENE

ISAAC

ISAAC

JOYCEJOYCE

KEITH

LESLIE

LESLIE

MICHAEL

NADINE

MIC

HAEL

UNNAMED

HELENE

ALBERTO

2000 ATLANTIC SEASON STATISTICS

Name Cat Dates Min. Pressure(mb)

Max. Wind(kt) Deaths U.S. Damage

($M)

One TD 7-8 June 1008 25

Two TD 23-25 June 1008 30

Alberto H-3 3-23 August 950 110

Four TD 8-11 August 1009 30

Beryl TS 13-15 August 1007 45 1

Chris TS 17-19 August 1008 35

Debby H-1 19-24 August 991 75 0.5

Ernesto TS 1-3 September 1008 35

Nine TD 8-9 September 1008 30

Florence H-1 10-17 September 985 70 3

Gordon H-1 14-18 September 981 65 24 (Note 1) 10.8

Helene TS 15-25 September 986 60 1 >15.5

Isaac H-4 21 Sept-1 Oct 943 120 1

Joyce H-1 25 Sept-2 Oct 975 80

Keith H-4 28 Sept-6 Oct 939 120 19

Leslie (SD One) TS 4-7 October 1006 40 Note 2

Michael H-2 15-19 October 965 85

Nadine TS 19-21 October 999 50

Unnamed ST 25-29 October 976 55

Note 1: May include deaths prior to tropical cyclone genesis.Note 2: Precursor disturbance caused $950M in flooding damage.

2000 ATLANTIC SEASON STATISTICS

Third longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone on record.

Spent one week looping in the central north Atlantic.

Disorganized system with multiple centers.

One death in northeastern Mexico from flooding.

A minimal tropical storm cut down in the prime of life by wind shear.

See Chris...

Category 1 hurricane that clipped the extreme northeastern Caribbean. $0.5M damage in Puerto Rico.

Posed a potential threat to south Florida but unexpectedly weakened.

Category 1 hurricane that clipped the extreme northeastern Caribbean. $0.5M damage in Puerto Rico.

Posed a potential threat to south Florida but unexpectedly weakened.

7 difficult forecasts compared to the actual track of Debby7 difficult forecasts compared to the actual track of Debby

COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE JUST PRIOR TO THE G-IV AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE MISSIONCOMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE JUST PRIOR TO THE G-IV AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE MISSION

FORECAST GUIDANCE JUST AFTER G-IV MISSION-- NOTE THE LARGE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACKSFORECAST GUIDANCE JUST AFTER G-IV MISSION-- NOTE THE LARGE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACKS

UKMET MODEL

Courtesy Julian Heming, UKMO

WITHOUT SONDES

WITH SONDES

Category 1 hurricane of subtropical origins. Reached hurricane status three times.

Three deaths from rip currents in North Carolina.

Landfall near Cedar Key, FL as a 55 kt tropical storm.

$11M damage.

24 deaths, mainly in Guatemala.

Pinellas County FL 18 Sep 2000: Courtney Campbell Causeway (SR 60)

Photos: Florida Division of Emergency Management

Hurricane Gordon Storm Surge Flooding around Tampa Bay

Landfall near Ft. Walton Bch, FL, as a 35 kt tropical storm.

One death from tornado in S. Carolina. ~$16M damage.

Category 4 hurricane.

Affected portions of the British Isles as an extratropical storm.

One drowning death off of Long Is.

T.D. THIRTEEN (ISAAC) FIRST DETECTED IN REMOTELY SENSED SATELLITE WIND DATAT.D. THIRTEEN (ISAAC) FIRST DETECTED IN REMOTELY SENSED SATELLITE WIND DATA

230 a.m. EDT, Sep 21, 2000

Strongest hurricane of the season.

Battered resort islands of Belize, causing 19 deaths (5 in Belize), $200M damage.

Corosal-Belize Highway 3 Oct 2000 REUTERS

Hurricane Keith flood damage in Belize

Pan-American Highway, Nicaragua 3 Oct 2000 REUTERS

Belize City 2 Oct 2000 REUTERS

Keith’s powerful Category 4 winds batter parts of Belize

Belize City 2 Oct 2000 REUTERS

Another difficult storm to forecast...Another difficult storm to forecast...

Computer forecast models from 8 am EDT, Oct. 2.Computer forecast models from 8 am EDT, Oct. 2.

…fortunately Keith was a relatively small hurricane

SOUTH FLORIDA FLOODS CAUSED BY THE PRE-LESLIE DISTURBANCE -- OCTOBER 3

image provided by South Florida Water Management District

Widespread Residential Flooding in Miami-Dade County, FL

image provided by South Florida Water Management District

NHC

Courtesy Colin McAdie (TPC), Peter Dodge (HRD)

NEXRAD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Totals, 2-4 OCTOBER 2000

Precursor disturbance contributed to severe flooding in S. Florida that caused $950M damage and three indirect deaths.

Began advisories as Subtropical Depression One.

Became extratropical just prior to reaching Newfoundland.

…a storm of no recognizable merit whatsoever...

…the Beven-cane of the century...

NOAA Seasonal Hurricane Forecast• A 75% chance of above-average activity,

due to reduced vertical wind shear and above-average SSTs.

• Typically at least 11 TS, 7 H, 3 MH.

• Overall activity is typically very high in active years.

• Caribbean islands and United States are at an increased risk of TS or H strikes (2-3 hurricane strikes each in active years).

Yes.

No.

Not really.

Yes.

20% above normal.

Yes, sort of, for C.I., but no for U.S.

"Our estimate of U.S. landfall by an intense hurricane did not provecorrect, but landfall predictions don't work well in any individual year.” Bill Gray