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SouthChina

Sea

ProfessorCarlThayer

School of Humanities & Social Sciences

AustralianDefence ForceAcademy

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.

Implications

2. ASEANandtheSouthChinaSea

ChinaSea

. a uso

e

ec ara onon

on uc

ofPartiesintheSouthChinaSea(DOC)

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.

.

2. PLANMaritimeExercises

3. USMilitaryReponsestoChinese

4. ShangrilaDialogue

5. Meetingof

Defence Ministers

(October)

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meeting[in

China]

of

the

Strategic

and

conom c a ogue a eyv ew e

SouthChina

Sea

as

acore

interest,

IimmediatelyrespondedandsaidWe

dontagreewiththat.

SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,quotedin

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. ,

Eastand

South

Sea

Fleets

.

Fleet

in

response

to

US

ROK

exercise3. LateJu y argesto its in ,most

modernships,seniorcommanders

4. EarlyNovember

100

platforms

+

marines

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US

China

Defence Ministers

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1. 43rd ASEANMinisterial

Meeting

2. 17th ASEANRegionalForum

nd

.

4. ASEANDefence MinistersPlus

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1. Chinasseizure

of

Vietnamese

fishing

2. Vietnamese

responses3. ChinasUnilateralFishingBan

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Implementthe

DOC

th

CommentsbyASEANSecretaryGeneralSurin

Evaluationsofprogress

LiuJianchao,ChinasAmbassadortothePhilippines

HillaryClinton,USSecretaryofState

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Conclusion

PositiveDevelopments

Grounds

for

cautious

optimism

on

DOC

international

oil

and

gas

companies USdownplaysanotherUSNSImpeccable

incident

UpturninChinaUSrelations

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Conclusion

NegativeDevelopments

Chinaincreasing

capacity

to

enforce

sovere gn yc a ms

Yulin Naval

Base

construction

ContinuedlackofChinasdefencetrans arenc

AnxietyaboutdeclineofUSprimacy

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Conclusion

NegativeDevelopments

Greatpower

rivalry

Chinas

fear

Chinese

warnings

to

Vietnam Regionaldefence selfhelpmeasures

andmilitar modernisation

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ecen

eve opmen s

n

e

SouthChinaSea

ProfessorCarlThayer

nd

TheSouthChinaSea,cosponsord bytheDiplomatic

Association,HoChiMinhCity,Vietnam,November

, ,