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WRF Evaluation AgainstObservations in Louisiana

Chris EmeryENVIRON International Corporation, Novato CA

November 14, 2012

2

Sites in the Evaluation

300 400 500 600 700 800

-1100

-1000

-900

-800

-700

KAEX

KAQV

KBAD

KBKB

KBQP

KDNK

KDTN

KESF

KF24

KIER

KMLU

KPOE

KRSNKSHV

K0R3

K4C0 K7R3K7R4

K9F2

KACP

KARA

KASD

KAUD

KAXO

KBTR

KBVE

KCWF

KDRI

KGAO

KHDC

KHUM

KLCHKLFT

KMSYKNBG

KNEW

KP92KPTN

KUXL

3

Wind Speed at Northern Sites

0

2

4

6

8

1-Aug 8-Aug 15-Aug 22-Aug 29-Aug

m/s

Observed/Predicted Windspeed ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd

0

2

4

6

8

1-Sep 8-Sep 15-Sep 22-Sep 29-Sep

m/s

Observed/Predicted Windspeed ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd

0

2

4

6

8

1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct

m/s

Observed/Predicted Windspeed ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd

4

Wind Speed at Southern Sites

0

2

4

6

8

1-Aug 8-Aug 15-Aug 22-Aug 29-Aug

m/s

Observed/Predicted Windspeed ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd

0

2

4

6

8

1-Sep 8-Sep 15-Sep 22-Sep 29-Sep

m/s

Observed/Predicted Windspeed ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd

0

2

4

6

8

1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct

m/s

Observed/Predicted Windspeed ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd

5

Goal Plots for Windspeed September October

Nor

ther

n Lo

uisi

ana

Sout

hern

Lou

isia

na

6

Wind Direction at Northern Sites

060120180240300360

1-Aug 8-Aug 15-Aug 22-Aug 29-Aug

de

gObserved/Predicted Wind Direction ObsWndDir PrdWndDir

060120180240300360

1-Sep 8-Sep 15-Sep 22-Sep 29-Sep

de

g

Observed/Predicted Wind Direction ObsWndDir PrdWndDir

060120180240300360

1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct

de

g

Observed/Predicted Wind Direction ObsWndDir PrdWndDir

7

Wind Direction at Southern Sites

060120180240300360

1-Aug 8-Aug 15-Aug 22-Aug 29-Aug

de

gObserved/Predicted Wind Direction ObsWndDir PrdWndDir

060120180240300360

1-Sep 8-Sep 15-Sep 22-Sep 29-Sep

de

g

Observed/Predicted Wind Direction ObsWndDir PrdWndDir

060120180240300360

1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct

de

g

Observed/Predicted Wind Direction ObsWndDir PrdWndDir

8

Goal Plots for Wind Direction/Speed September October

Nor

ther

n Lo

uisi

ana

Sout

hern

Lou

isia

na

9

Temperature at Northern Sites

280

290

300

310

1-Aug 8-Aug 15-Aug 22-Aug 29-Aug

KObserved/Predicted Temperature ObsTemp PrdTemp

280

290

300

310

1-Sep 8-Sep 15-Sep 22-Sep 29-Sep

K

Observed/Predicted Temperature ObsTemp PrdTemp

280

290

300

310

1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct

K

Observed/Predicted Temperature ObsTemp PrdTemp

10

Temperature at Southern SitesAu

gust

Sept

embe

r

Oct

ober

280

290

300

310

1-Aug 8-Aug 15-Aug 22-Aug 29-Aug

K

Observed/Predicted Temperature ObsTemp PrdTemp

280

290

300

310

1-Sep 8-Sep 15-Sep 22-Sep 29-Sep

K

Observed/Predicted Temperature ObsTemp PrdTemp

280

290

300

310

1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct

K

Observed/Predicted Temperature ObsTemp PrdTemp

11

Goal Plots for Temperature September October

Nor

ther

n Lo

uisi

ana

Sout

hern

Lou

isia

na

12

24-hour Precipitation on Exceedance Days

AHPS (observed) WRF (predicted)

Sept

embe

r 13

Sept

embe

r 14

13

24-hour Precipitation on Exceedance Days AHPS (observed) WRF (predicted)

Sept

embe

r 16

Sept

embe

r 17

14

Summary

• Southern LA– September: performance was very good for all three variables– October: daytime wind speed and temperatures were slightly under

predicted Could lead to excessive stagnation and higher ozone

• Northern LA– Performance was slightly but consistently worse– Daytime wind speeds and temperatures were also under estimated

• Overall– Wind were markedly better than usually achieved in other WRF

applications across the country– Temperature performance was on par with other applications– Precipitation performance was quite good

Did not exhibit the usually high degree of over prediction

15

Extra Slides

16

Regression Analysis for Windspeed September October

Nor

ther

n Lo

uisi

ana

Sout

hern

Lou

isia

na

17

Regression Analysis for Wind Direction September October

Nor

ther

n Lo

uisi

ana

Sout

hern

Lou

isia

na

18

Regression Analysis for Temperature September October

Nor

ther

n Lo

uisi

ana

Sout

hern

Lou

isia

na