Tampa’s

Multifamily Market

Lesley Deutch, Principal

ldeutch@realestateconsulting.com

561-252-0175

DATA VS.

OPPORTUNITIES

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THE DATA

EARLY MARCH

Scrambling and Confusion

Stay at Home orders begin

Clear message banks will have capital

Family First Coronavirus Response Act

MID MARCH

10.2 million unemployment claims

S&P down 33%

CARES Act

$2 Trillion Stimulus approved

EARLY APRIL

9% of renters don’t pay rent

2+ million homeowners request forbearance

Employers file for assistance (and wait)

Consumers file unemployment (and wait)

New home sales down 85%

LATE APRIL

Free money falling from the sky!

Home sales have doubled from paltry

early April

Consumer confidence improves

Stock market up 31% over Mar. 23 low

Plans to reopen emerge

A Timeline of Events

Tampa’s back office operations may help with recovery

Tampa’s Largest Industries (by Employment)

Food Services and Drinking Places (10%)

Administrative Support (7.5%)

Ambulatory and Health Services (7%)

Specialty Trade Contractors (4.6%)

Hospitals (4.6%)

Insurance Carriers (3.6%)

Credit Intermediation (3%)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

5,009

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Tampa Apartment Completions

Source: REIS, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Apartment construction peaked in Tampa in 2019

4.8%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

20201

Tampa Apartment Vacancy Rate

Source: REIS, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Apartment vacancy remains low through Q12020. We expect it to rise.

$1,130

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

20201

2020

2021

Tampa Apartment Effective Rent

Source: REIS, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Rising vacancy rates results in declining rents.

Source: NMHC, RealPageSee Terms and Conditions of Use and Disclaimers.

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-9%-11%

-17%

Class A Class B Class C

Change in Rent Payments by April 5, 2020

Class A rent collections are stronger. People are paying rent, just late.

Source: NMHC, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

But we cannot ignore the warning signs.

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THE OPPORTUNITIES

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8%

13%

6%

3%4%

3%1%

-5%

4%

-10%

-27%

-31%

-25%

-22%

-13%-15%

-10%

5-J

an

12

-Jan

19

-Jan

26

-Jan

2-F

eb

9-F

eb

16

-Fe

b

23

-Fe

b

1-M

ar

8-M

ar

15

-Ma

r

22

-Ma

r

29

-Ma

r

5-A

pr

12

-Apr

19

-Apr

26

-Apr

US – Google Search “Apartments”

People want to move.

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3%

12%9%

-4%-6%

8%

-8%

1%

5%

0%

-19%

-38%

-12%

-28%-25%

-18%

-10%

5-J

an

12

-Jan

19

-Jan

26

-Jan

2-F

eb

9-F

eb

16

-Fe

b

23

-Fe

b

1-M

ar

8-M

ar

15

-Ma

r

22

-Ma

r

29

-Ma

r

5-A

pr

12

-Apr

19

-Apr

26

-Apr

Tampa – Google Search “Apartments”

People want to move in Tampa as well.

Accelerating trends within the apartment industry

VIRTUAL LEASES

SENSE OF COMMUNITY

The Great American Move – to Surban Living?

Or to Suburban Living?

New construction can adjust to changing preferences

Shift away from

elevator and

corridor buildings

1

Spaces for

home office or

work from home

2

Decentralization

of amenities

3

“Urban farms” in

apartment

buildings

4

Cleaner air

filtration

5

New technology

for

conveniences

6

Will Single-Family Rental be the Beneficiary?

Finding The Light

at the End of the Tunnel