Post on 30-Jul-2018
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
TRANSFORMATIONS IN THE MEDITERRANEANACTORS, THREATS, OPPORTUNITIES
Independent expert panel
Demographics
Perceptions
Policies: Economy
Policies: Security
Policies: Migrations
4
5
6
10
12
13
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INDEPENDENT EXPERT PANEL
ABBAS Faisal – Al Arabiya EnglishABDALLAH Salah Eddin – Al Jazeera Centre for
Studies – AJCSADDIOUI Adnane – Moroccan Center for Innovation and Social EntrepreneurshipAITA Samir – Circle of Arab EconomistsALA’ALDEEN Dlawer – Middle East Research InstituteALESSANDRI Emiliano – OSCEAL-HADID Mohammed – Jordan National Red
Crescent Society AL-KHATIB Walid – Centre for Strategic StudiesAL-RUWAIHI Khaled – Bahrain Center for Strategic
Studies and International Energy – DERASAT AMIN Shahira – Independent journalistAMIRAH-FERNÁNDEZ Haizam – Real Instituto
ElcanoANOUAR Houeida – Al Huffington Post MaghrebAYYASH Abdelrahman – Bahcesehir UniversityBAKER Gerard – Wall Street JournalBAYDAR Yavuz – P24, the Platform for
Independent MediaBENCHEHIDA Hafida – Arab Women
Parlamentarian NetworkBERKOFSKY Axel - University of PaviaBERTI Benedetta – Institute for National Security
Studies – INSS BONINO Emma – ECFRCAMLIBEL Cansu – HurriyetCAPRARA Maurizio – Corriere della SeraCAVERO Teresa – Oxfam International & UcodepCOHEN-ADRIA Emmanuel – IEmedCOLAKOGLU Selcuk – International Strategic
Research OrganizationCUI Hongjian – CIISDAGHER Munqith – IIACSSDEMERTZIS Maria – BruegelDHAOUADI Rim – University of Carthage DOKOS Thanos – Hellenic Foundation for
European & Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)DRISS Ahmed – Centre Etudes Mediterranées
Internationales - CEMIDYNKIN Alexander – IMEMO RASEL GOMATI Anas – Sadeq InstituteEZZAT Ibrahim Youssef – Al Ahram NewspaperFAKOUSSA Dina – DGAPFATANY Samar – Al Arabiya FERRÉ Josep – European Institute of the
Mediterranean - IEMedFOUAD Hazim – Christian-Albrechts-University
of Kiel FREIDJI Nabila – Cash OneGADE Tine – Norwegian Institute of International
Affairs – NUPIGAERTNER Heinz – Austrian Institute for
International Affairs / University of ViennaGARAVOGLIA Matteo – Center on the United
States and Europe, Brookings GARIMBERTI Paolo – EuronewsGHORBEL Slim – Tunisian Union of Industry,
Trade and Handicrafts (UTICA)GIANNITI Maria – Giornale Radio RaiGUETAT Meriem – University of Nice Sophia
Antipolis HADZOVIC Denis – Centre for Security StudiesHAMOUDA Sara – College of Europe, Poland
HOLSLAG Jonathan – Free University of BrusselsHOPPE Till – Handelsblatt, BerlinJIHEN Boutiba Mrad – BUSINESSMEDJRAD Eya – University of Tunis KASCHUBA Wolfgang – Berlin Institute for Integration and
Migration ResearchKHADER Bichara – EuroMeSCo General Assembly KIS-BENEDEK József – Center for Security and Defense
StudiesKÖHLER Michael – European CommissionKORANYI David – Atlantic Council Eurasian Energy Futures
InitiativeKRICHAH Sameh – National Institute for Applied Sciences
and Technology (INSAT) KRICHAH Samah – Al KhattLADKI Nadim – Daily star LESSER Ian – Transatlantic CenterMAGRI Paolo – ISPIMALMVIG Helle – DIISMCGANN James – TTCSP Program, University of
PennsylvaniaMEZRAN Karim – Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle EastMICHELOT Martin – European Institute for European Policy - EUROPEUMMUHLBERGER Wolfgang – The Finnish Institute of
International AffairsNARBONE Luigi – European University InstituteNASR Vali – Johns Hopkins UniversityNEGRI Alberto – Il Sole 24 OreNELLI FEROCI Ferdinando – IAIORTEGA Andres – Real Instituto ElcanoPAPACHELAS Alexis – KathimeriniPAPOULIAS Panos – Stavros Niarchos FoundationPEDDE Nicola – IGSPLEBANI Andrea – Catholic University of the Sacred
HeartQUARTAPELLE Lia – Italian Chamber of DeputiesRÉVAY Paul – The Trilateral CommissionRIZK Elie – Lebanese Exhibitions & Conferences
AssociationROY Olivier – European University InstituteSALEH Mohsen Mohammad – Al-Zaytouna Centre for
Studies and ConsultationsSASNAL Patricia – Polish Institute of International Affairs -
PISMSCHMID Dorothée – IFRIŠELO ŠABIĆ Senada – Institute for International Relations
– IRMOSERAG Basma – American University of Cairo SHULL Aaron – Centre for International Governance
Innovation (CIGI)SPENCER Claire – Chatham HouseSTEFANINI Stefano – Atlantic CouncilTAGLIAPIETRA Simone – BruegelTALBOT Valeria – ISPITEIXEIRA Nuno Severiano – Portuguese Institute for
International Relations – IPRITORELLI Stefano – ISPITOUMI Sarah – Acacias for All et Dream in TunisiaTRAMBALLI Ugo – Il Sole 24 OreVALENTINO Paolo – Il Corriere della SeraVARVELLI Arturo – ISPIVOIGT Karsten D. – German Council on Foreign PolicyXU Mingqi – SASS ZAPTIA Sami – Libya Herald ZELACI Chems Eddine – CREADZOHRY Ayman – Egyptian Society for Migration Studies
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NUMBER OF PARTECIPANTS
100 people
REGION OF PROVENIENCE
59Europe
36 MENA
MAIN OCCUPATION
Researchers
56
Business persons
and others
11
Policymakers
5
Journalists
19
NGO/ practicioners
9
Under 30
11
31-45
28
46-60
39
Over 60
22
AGE
DEMOGRAPHICS
3North America
2Asia
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PERCEPTIONS
WHAT ARE THE MAIN THREATS TO THE STABILITY OF THE MENA REGION?
WHAT ARE THE MAIN THREATS TO THE STABILITY OF EUROPE?
Populism
Civil conflicts
23.5%
17.5%
Migration crisis
Terrorism
9.1%
14.0%
Terrorism
Economic crisis
7.4%
13.6%
Economic crisis
Authoritarianism
23.1%
14.8%
Inadequate EU policies
Sectarian divide
8.4%
13.8%
Ethnic/religious polarization
Social Inequalities
7.3%
13.3%
Mediterranean instability
External interventions/influences
6.1%
10.7%
Social Inequalities
The fall of the price of oil
5.1%
1.3%
Current ruling classes
Natural resources
3.7%
1.0%
Ukraine crisis and tension with Russia
Austerity measures
Energy crisis
3.5%
2.2%
0.6%
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PERCEPTIONS
WHICH REGIONAL STATES/ACTORS CONTRIBUTE THE MOST TO THE STABILITY
OF THE MENA REGION?
WHICH EXTERNAL STATES/ACTORS CONTRIBUTE THE MOST TO THE STABILITY
OF THE MENA REGION?
EU
please rank up to 3 options in order of relevance please rank up to 3 options in order of relevance
OthersOthers
Jordan27.6% 26.2%
7.3%9.3%
Morocco US
Saudi ArabiaChina
19.6% 17.8%
5.4%5.4%
Arab League UN
Iran Egypt
12.2% 17.7%
8.7%NATO6.3%9.1%
Italy6.9%
Turkey Germany10.0% 10.5%
WHICH REGIONAL STATES/ACTORS CONTRIBUTE THE MOST TO THE INSTABILITY
OF THE MENA REGION?
WHICH EXTERNAL STATES/ACTORS CONTRIBUTE THE MOST TO THE INSTABILITY
OF THE MENA REGION?please rank up to 3 options in order of relevance please rank up to 3 options in order of relevance
Others
Daesh29.3%
8.9%
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
16.0%
4.6%
Syria
Al-Qaeda Israel
14.1%
8.2% 8.9%Iran
10.1%
*Others: Qatar 3.0%; Muslim Brotherhood 2.1%; Hamas 1.4%: Hezbollah 1.2%; Hamas 1.1%
*Others: UK 5.7%; China 3.4%; Italy 0.5%; Germany 0.0%
Russia42.3%
US29.6%
Others
France11.1%
9.7%
NATO7.4%
*Others: Israel 5.3%; Qatar 2.0% *Others: Russia 4.8%; France 4.0%; UK 0.6%
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WHICH MENA COUNTRIES ENJOY THE MOST SUCCESSFUL FORM OF GOVERNANCE IN THE REGION?
APART FROM IRAQ, LIBYA, SYRIA AND YEMEN WHICH COUNTRY COULD MOST RISK A POLITICAL CRISIS?
MOROCCO
TUNISIA
ISRAEL
EGYPT SAUDIARABIA
ALGERIA
LEBANON
UAE
OMAN
TURKEY
JORDAN
IRAN
QATARBAHRAIN
KUWAIT
TUNISIA
EGYPT
SAUDIARABIA
ALGERIA
LEBANON
TURKEY
JORDAN
IRAN
BAHRAIN
%
0-1 1-5 5-10 10-20 20-30 (most successful)
%
0-5 (low risk) 5-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 (high risk)
PERCEPTIONS
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WHO IS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL LEADER IN THE MENA REGION?
WHAT IS THE MOST UNDERESTIMATED CRISIS IN THE MENA REGION?
VladimirPutin
Water and other natural resources
26.3%
21.4%
Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Palestinian/Israeli question
18.9%
20.4%
Ali Khamenei
Turkey vs PKK
9.5%
11.2%
Barack Obama
Yemen
15.8%
18.4%
King Abdullah II
Libya
13.7%
16.3%
Others: -----------
HOW DO YOU EVALUATE THE FUTURE OF THE EU?
HOW DO YOU EVALUATE THE FUTURE OF THE MENA REGION?
1 1
Very negativetowards disintegrations
Very negativeVery positivetowards better
integration
Very positive
2 2
3 3
4 45 5
5.01
3.686 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
PERCEPTIONS
10
TO WHAT EXTENT HAVE EUROPEAN UNION POLICIES CONTRIBUTED TO ENHANCING ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION?
WHICH IS THE TOP PRIORITY FOR THE MENA REGION?
IN ORDER TO ENHANCE THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
OF THE MENA REGION, IT IS IMPERATIVE TO INVEST IN:
Democracy and inclusiveness
Education system
please rank up to 3 options in order of relevance please rank up to 3 options in order of relevance
26.8% 27.4%
Stability Youth entrepreneurship / Jobs creation26.8%
17.9%
SecurityPolitical
pluralism
Social equality Others
19.6% 16.0%
11.3%
9.0%
19.3%
Strong economy
15.5%
Capacity building10.4%
1
Not contributed at all Contributed a lot
2
3
4
54.16 6
7
8
9
10
Others: Security 7.5%; SMEs 4.2%; Media Independence 4.2%;
NGO inclusion in policy process 3.3%
POLICIES: ECONOMY
Womenparticipation in public life
11
WHICH ARE THE POTENTIAL SECTORS OF A NEW REGIONAL ECONOMIC COOPERATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN?
Energy
26.1%
Infrastructures
21.8% 15,6%
Training exchange programs
SMEs
11.8%
Women’s enterprise
10.0%14.7%
Research and
innovation
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING IS THE MAIN TOOL TO PROMOTE AN INCLUSIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE MENA REGION?
Intra-regional economic integration 27.7%
Education 15.8%
FDI 6.9%
Economic diversification 23.8%
Supporting SMEs 14.9%
Normative liberalization 5.0%
Domestic investments 4.0%
Microcredit 2.0%
POLICIES: ECONOMY
12
SYRIAN CRISIS: WHAT IS THE PRIORITY?
LIBYAN CRISIS: WHAT IS THE PRIORITY?
KURDISH ISSUE: WHAT IS THE BEST SOLUTION?
First defeating Daesh. then promoting a
federal state solution
30.7%
Supporting National General Accord
(Serraj government)
45.5%
Creating an independent state
including all the Kurdish-majority areas
13.9%
Supporting Bashar al-Assad
5.0%
Supporting a “federal solution”
49.5%
Creating autonomous regions within the
respective countries
65.3%
Assimilating the Kurdish population
within respective countries
9.9%
Defeating Daesh and promoting a UN-led
transition steering the country away from
Assad
64.4%
Supporting Gen. Khalifa Haftar
5.0%
Allowing the independence of Iraqi
Kurdistan
10.9%
POLICIES: SECURITY
13
HOW DO YOU EVALUATE EUROPEAN POLICIES ON:
MANAGING MIGRATION FLOWS
HOW DO YOU EVALUATE THE POLICIES OF MENA COUNTRIES ON:
MANAGING MIGRATION FLOWS
HOW DO YOU EVALUATE EUROPEAN POLICIES ON:
INTEGRATING MIGRANTS
HOW DO YOU EVALUATE THE POLICIES OF MENA COUNTRIES ON:
INTEGRATING MIGRANTS
very negative
very negative
very negative
very negative
22.8%
14.9%
21.8%
23.8%
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
23.8%
20.8%
10.9%
15.8%
very positive
very positive
very positive
very positive
0.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
negative
negative
negative
negative
44.6%
48.5%
49.5%
47.5%
positive
positive
positive
positive
8.9%
14.9%
16.8%
11.9%
POLICIES: MIGRATIONS
14
HOW DO YOU EVALUATE EUROPEAN POLICIES ON:
COOPERATION AND SOLIDARITYON BORDER CONTROL
HOW DO YOU EVALUATE THE POLICIES OF MENA COUNTRIES ON:
COOPERATION AND SOLIDARITYON BORDER CONTROL
very negative very negative20.8% 23.8%
no impact no impact20.8% 20.8%
very positive very positive1.0% 0.0%
negative negative46.5% 44.6%
positive positive10.9% 10.9%
HOW DO YOU EVALUATE THE EU-TURKEY AGREEMENT ON MIGRATION?
POLICIES: MIGRATIONS
1
Very negative (1) Very positive (10)
2
3
4
54.07 6
7
8
9
10