1

Systems Engineering AnalysisLittoral Undersea Warfare in 2025

2

Problem Definition

Needs Analysis

Objectives Analysis

Design & Analysis

Alternatives Generation

Modeling & Analysis

Decision Making

Alternative Scoring

Decision

Implementation

Planning for Action

Assessment & Control

Execution

Needs Analysis Obj Analysis Alt Generation Modeling Analysis Conclusions

Systems Engineering Design Process

3

SEA-8 Problem Statement

SEA-8

.. design a system that denies enemy undersea forces (submarine and UUV) effective employment against friendly forces within the littorals during the 2025 timeframe.

Needs Analysis Obj Analysis Alt Generation Modeling Analysis Conclusions

4

Problem Definition Phase

Needs Analysis Primitive Need Stakeholder

Acknowledgements System Decomposition Input-Output Modeling Functional Analysis Requirements Generation Effective Need

Needs Analysis Obj Analysis Alt Generation Modeling Analysis Conclusions

Problem Definition

Needs Analysis

Objectives Analysis

5

ASW Timeline 3/10/30

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

72hrsBegin ASW Operations

10 DaysSeize the Initiative

30 DaysDenial

sustained for follow-on

actions

Needs Analysis Obj Analysis Alt Generation Modeling Analysis Conclusions

6

Objectives Analysis Phase

Needs Analysis Obj Analysis Alt Generation Modeling Analysis Conclusions

Problem Definition

Needs Analysis

Objectives Analysis

Objectives Analysis Functional Objectives Measures of Effectiveness Measures of Performance Performance Goals

7

Scenario Building

TRANSIT

TRANSIT

TRANSIT

MAIN LANDTRANSIT

TRANSIT

TRANSIT

MAIN LAND

MAIN LANDMAIN LAND

TRANSITTRANSIT

MAIN LANDMAIN LAND

TRANSITTRANSIT

MAIN LAND

ISLAND

MAIN LAND

ISLAND

Defense of Island Nation Coastal Choke Point Passage

Needs Analysis Obj Analysis Alt Generation Modeling Analysis Conclusions

8

SEA-8 Defined Alternatives

Littoral Action Group (LAG) DD(X), LCS, SSN, MH-60

Total Ship Systems Engineering (TSSE) –

Sea TENTACLE Host ship, UUV, USV, UAV, Stationary Bottom Sensors

Tripwire UUV, Rapidly Deployable Stationary Bottom Sensors

War of Machines UUV, Recharging Stations

Floating Sensors

Needs Analysis Obj Analysis Alt Generation Modeling Analysis Conclusions

9

High-level Model Development

OVERALL SYSTEM PERFORMANCE

High-level Entity Based Model

Reliability discrete eventsimulation models

Logisticsanalyticalmodels

Sensorsphysics based models

C4ISR analytical models

Alternative

War of Machines

Alternative

War of Machines

Alternative

TSSE

Alternative

TSSE

Alternative

Tripwire

Alternative

Tripwire

Alternative

LAG

Alternative

LAG

TripwireProbability of Detection

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TripwireProbability of Detection

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OUTPUTDATA

Needs Analysis Obj Analysis Alt Generation Modeling Analysis Conclusions

1500 1502 1504 1506 1508 1510 1512 1514 1516 1518-80

-70

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0

Sound Speed (m/s)

Depth (m)

Monthly Mean Sound Speed Profiles for 40 00S 146 06E

Summer

Winter1500 1502 1504 1506 1508 1510 1512 1514 1516 1518

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Sound Speed (m/s)

Depth

(m)

Monthly Mean Sound Speed Profiles for 40 00S 146 06E

SummerWinter

0(0)-

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100(30)-

150(46)-

200(61)-

250(76)-

Dep

th in

ft (m

)

6 8 10 12 14 5 10 15 20 25 30

Sound Speed (m/s + 1500) Range in kYds

Db

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1500 1502 1504 1506 1508 1510 1512 1514 1516 1518-80

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Sound Speed (m/s)

Depth (m)

Monthly Mean Sound Speed Profiles for 40 00S 146 06E

Summer

Winter1500 1502 1504 1506 1508 1510 1512 1514 1516 1518

-80

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0

Sound Speed (m/s)

Depth

(m)

Monthly Mean Sound Speed Profiles for 40 00S 146 06E

SummerWinter

1500 1502 1504 1506 1508 1510 1512 1514 1516 1518-80

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-60

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0

Sound Speed (m/s)

Depth (m)

Monthly Mean Sound Speed Profiles for 40 00S 146 06E

Summer

Winter1500 1502 1504 1506 1508 1510 1512 1514 1516 1518

-80

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0

Sound Speed (m/s)

Depth

(m)

Monthly Mean Sound Speed Profiles for 40 00S 146 06E

SummerWinter

0(0)-

50(15)-

100(30)-

150(46)-

200(61)-

250(76)-

Dep

th in

ft (m

)

0(0)-

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th in

ft (m

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6 8 10 12 14 5 10 15 20 25 30

Sound Speed (m/s + 1500) Range in kYds

Db

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1500 1502 1504 1506 1508 1510 1512 1514 1516 1518-80

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Sound Speed (m/s)

Depth (m)

Monthly Mean Sound Speed Profiles for 40 00S 146 06E

Summer

Winter1500 1502 1504 1506 1508 1510 1512 1514 1516 1518

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0

Sound Speed (m/s)

Dept

h (m

)

Monthly Mean Sound Speed Profiles for 40 00S 146 06E

Summer

Winter

0(0)-

50(15)-

100(30)-

150(46)-

200(61)-

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th in

ft (m

)

6 8 10 12 14 5 10 15 20 25 30

Sound Speed (m/s + 1500) Range in kYds

Db

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1500 1502 1504 1506 1508 1510 1512 1514 1516 1518-80

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Depth (m)

Monthly Mean Sound Speed Profiles for 40 00S 146 06E

Summer

Winter1500 1502 1504 1506 1508 1510 1512 1514 1516 1518

-80

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0

Sound Speed (m/s)

Dept

h (m

)

Monthly Mean Sound Speed Profiles for 40 00S 146 06E

Summer

Winter

1500 1502 1504 1506 1508 1510 1512 1514 1516 1518-80

-70

-60

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0

Sound Speed (m/s)

Depth (m)

Monthly Mean Sound Speed Profiles for 40 00S 146 06E

Summer

Winter1500 1502 1504 1506 1508 1510 1512 1514 1516 1518

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

Sound Speed (m/s)

Dept

h (m

)

Monthly Mean Sound Speed Profiles for 40 00S 146 06E

Summer

Winter

0(0)-

50(15)-

100(30)-

150(46)-

200(61)-

250(76)-

Dep

th in

ft (m

)

0(0)-

50(15)-

100(30)-

150(46)-

200(61)-

250(76)-

Dep

th in

ft (m

)

6 8 10 12 14 5 10 15 20 25 30

Sound Speed (m/s + 1500) Range in kYds

Db

80

100

120

140

10

ASW Results, Insights and Recommendations

NO PERFECT SYSTEM Scenario variables were the key factors Each alternative studied had weaknesses Differences between alternatives were

significant “Best” solution might be a tailored mix

Needs Analysis Obj Analysis Alt Generation Modeling Analysis Conclusions

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ASW Results, Insights and Recommendations

REACTION TIME Enemy submarines are vulnerable in restricted

waterways Enemy timelines are unpredictable Quick reaction systems hedge uncertainty Strategic air least sensitive to enemy initiative

Needs Analysis Obj Analysis Alt Generation Modeling Analysis Conclusions

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ASW Results, Insights and Recommendations

PRESENCE Pervasive persistence is the goal Traditional methods Non-traditional methods

Needs Analysis Obj Analysis Alt Generation Modeling Analysis Conclusions

13

ASW Results, Insights and Recommendations

KILL-CHAIN TIMELINE (KCT) TRADEOFFS

Traditional methods require short KCTs Non-traditional methods afford longer KCTs Standoff weapons systems more easily used if

longer KCT are allowed

Needs Analysis Obj Analysis Alt Generation Modeling Analysis Conclusions

14

ASW Results, Insights and Recommendations

UNDERSEA JOINT ENGAGEMENT ZONE (UJEZ)

Cooperative mix of assets unlocks future ASW force capabilities

Future ASW forces may require the establishment of the UJEZ

Low false positive and low fratricide rates are required

Needs Analysis Obj Analysis Alt Generation Modeling Analysis Conclusions

15

ASW Results, Insights and Recommendations

RECOMMENDATIONS Research

Follow on study

Development UUVs Rapidly deployable sensing grids Common undersea picture Autonomous recharge/replenishment systems

Needs Analysis Obj Analysis Alt Generation Modeling Analysis Conclusions

16

ASW Results, Insights and Recommendations

RECOMMENDATIONS Tactics

Strategic air JSOW like systems to deliver ASW assets

Doctrine Evolution from waterspace management and

PMI to UJEZ

Needs Analysis Obj Analysis Alt Generation Modeling Analysis Conclusions

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Systems Engineering AnalysisLittoral Undersea Warfare in 2025