Post on 03-Dec-2021
System for bathing Water quality Modelling (SWIM)
Professor Gregory O’Hare,
School of Computer Science
University College Dublin (UCD)
SWIM Launch event, Titanic Centre, 7th December 2017
SWIM Funding Instrument
Interreg VA United Kingdom-Ireland (Northern Ireland-Ireland-
Scotland)
2014-2020
Environment, Objective 2.2
Manage Marine Protected Areas and Species
The Directive recognises that short-term pollution of bathing
waters may arise (e.g., caused by high-rainfall events);
It allows up to 15% of the results for an assessment period to be
discounted (i.e., to be disregarded and not included in the
compliance calculations);
However discounting may be applied only to short-term
pollution that is PREDICTABLE.
Short-term pollution and‘discounting’
Predict short-term pollution events.
Warn the public not to bathe.
Objective: protect the public health.
The Directive’s Predict and Protect strategy
“Predict and Protect”
The Directive’s Predict and Discard Strategy
Predict short-term pollution events.
Warn the public not to bathe for health protection.
Then, the microbial results may be discarded, potentially
with the effect of protecting the bathing water
classification from downgrading.
A check sample and a replacement sample must be
taken.
Management measures must be taken.
Predictive models are required to underpin discounting
Their development has been undertaken within an INTERREG
IVA project SmartCoasts
Multiple Regression Modelling
Model 3 - Tolerance 0.2, r2 (adj.): 75.9%
Dependent (Y): Mean log10 Confirmed intestinal enterococci (cfu/100 ml)
Predictor Slope Value Partial r Sig. Tolerance
Intercept 5.459 .000
UVA Rad. in previous 12 Hrs. (MJ/sq. m) X1 -1.803 -.274 .000 .623
Max. Tide Height on sampling day (m) X2 .149 .244 .000 .945
Log10 Afon Afan Q in previous 48 Hrs (cub. m) X3 -1.233 -.440 .000 .303
Log10 Clyne R. Gauge. Max. Q in previous 48 Hrs (cub. m) X4 .679 .463 .000 .385
ETR in previous 24 Hrs. (MJ/sq. m) X5 -.015 -.145 .030 .656
Log10 Afon Dulais Max. Q on sampling day (cub m.) X6 .493 .257 .000 .311
Mean Wind Sp. in previous 24 Hrs (m/s) X7 -.105 -.155 .021 .742
Y = 5.459 – 1.803X1 + 0.149X2 – 1.233X3 + 0.679X4 – 0.015X5 + 0.493X6 - 0.105X7 ± 0.255
Confirmed Enterococci by Hour of Day
Decline in hourly GM towards the afternoon, increase in early evening
Model operationNRW Hydrometry
inputs
SCSC Installation Inputs
Calculated Variable Inputs
Black Pill
Clyne
Marcroft
Cilfrew
Workbook
Output
Sign:GoodPoor
Met Eireann station
Rainfall stationWeather station
Bray
WQ sampling points
The Dargle catchment has been instrumented with dynamically linked sensors, measuring
rainfall, river-flow and other parameters.
Met Eireann station
Rainfall stationWeather station
Bray
WQ sampling points
Met Eireann station
Rainfall stationWeather station
Bray
WQ sampling points
Hydrodynamic model: the ‘test-bed’ catchment
Sampling points – sampled
in 2011
STW outfalls – sampled in 2011
Sampling points – sampled
in 2012
STW outfalls – sampled in 2012
0
Parameters measured:
current speed and direction,
temperature, salinity, E. coli,
Intestinal Enterococci,
MST markers, and turbidity.
The Coastal Zone
Legaslative Drivers
To ensure effective and efficient implementation of these directives, water resource managers need to know the water quality in order to take appropriate mitigating actions for social and ecological benefits in the event of pollution. This is particularly so for the Bathing Water Directive, where water quality is defined in terms of Escherichia coli and intestinal enterococci (IE) concentrations as percentile limit values.
SWIM Objective
The SWIM project will enable short-term pollution to be predicted, through the development of a bathing water quality prediction model and deriving from this, the capacity to inform the public through a series of media channels including text alerts and automatic web updates, and real-time communication via alert services delivered through electronic signage installed strategically at beach entrances.
This will help to protect public health, significantly improve communication to members of the public, and in doing so contribute to promoting tourism.
Legaslative Drivers
Achieving and maintaining high marine water quality standards is required under stringent EU environmental legislations (e.g., Bathing Water Directive (2006/7/EC), Shellfish Waters Directive (2006/113/EC), and Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC).
Legaslative Drivers
To ensure effective and efficient implementation of these directives, water resource managers need to know the water quality in order to take appropriate mitigating actions for social and ecological benefits in the event of pollution. This is particularly so for the Bathing Water Directive, where water quality is defined in terms of Escherichia coli and intestinal enterococci (IE) concentrations as percentile limit values.
SWIM Approach
Acquire all pre-existing available bathing water microbial water-quality.
Determine sources of, and acquire all available retrospective relevant environmental data.
Determine which bathing waters had less than ‘Excellent’ classifications(category 1).
Determine which had one or more sample results that exceeded ‘Sufficient’ standard values (category 2).
Operate the Discard Model for categories 1 and 2.
Validate successful model performance.
Develop multivariate and other models where the Discard Model has not been successfully validated.
Beach Selection Rationale
Cranfield Rationale: Shared cross-border tidal water
BallyholmeRationale: High footfall. Public health risk. High amenity value (local boat clubs and organised swimming events)
Castlerock Rationale: Shared cross-border tidal water. Public health risk
Newcastle Rationale: High footfall. Public health risk. High amenity value (key NI tourist destination)
Crawfordsburn Rationale: High footfall. Public health risk.
Portrush (East Strand) Rationale: Shared cross-border tidal water. High footfall. Public health risk. High amenity value (local surf schools)
Enniscrone, Sligo Rationale: Public Health Risk
Lady’s Bay, Donegal Rationale: Public Health Risk and high footfall.
Anticipated Beaches
A number of beaches will be selected. The anticipated candidate beaches are:
Northern Ireland
Cranfield
Ballyholme
Castlerock
Newcastle
Crawfordsburn
Portrush (East Strand)
Republic of Ireland
Enniscrone, Sligo
Lady’s Bay, Donegal
Aviation Issues
Informing the Public
Intelligent
Orchestrated
Sensing
Predictive Modelling
Citizen
Engagement
Sampling
Informing the Public
Manual signing at the DSP – 7 days
Weekdays - 09:00, 12:00, 15:00 GMT
Weekends – 09:00, 12:00 GMT
Sign wording is as per SEPA
Informing the Public
• IpV6 Addressable signage
• Personalised contextualized messaging using geofencing
• Alternate revenue streams
Towards Autonomic Middleware
NEXUS
Agents
HOTAIR
Agents
ACCESS
Agents
Agent Factory Framework
AF Deployment Process
System
Specification
Platform
Configuration
Community
Initialization
BBA
Development Kit
ALPHA
Development Kit
AFAPL
Development Kit…
Agent Factory Run-Time Environment
Agent System Architecture
FIPA-compliant Agent Platform
…
Collaborative Sensor Network
Sensor Network Visualisation
Shrink Wrapped Middleware Agents
Intelligent Infrastructure
Fro
m V
isualisatio
nto
Dep
loym
ent
Fro
m U
nco
nst
rain
ed t
o C
on
stra
ined
From Miniaturisation to Simulation…
Sensing Intelligently is Very Difficult
Very often we think of sensing as a relatively
straightforward process of data capture given
an appropriate sensing infrastructure.
However, this blind gathering of data is an
overly simplistic view, which naively fails to
consider the use to which the data will be put,
and the power envelope within which it must be
assembled.
The manner in which data is gathered should
be influenced by the ongoing use of that data in
a variety of application and user contexts.
In practice, this means that not only should
research provide mechanisms for harmonising,
synchronising, representing and filtering data
but it should also be moderated based upon
feedback resulting from its very usage.
Conclusion: To Dream by Day
“All people dream, but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their mind, wake in the morning to find that it was vanity.
But the dreamers of the day are dangerous people, for they dream their dreams with open eyes, and make them come true.”
D.H. Lawrence