Post on 15-Jul-2015
Life in the Oasis
“Ready Player One” envisioned as ‘what if Willy Wonka made video games instead of chocolate?’
Also inspired by “Man on a Mission” documentary on Netflix.
- Ernest Cline
“Video games fill our hunter gather needs we spent centuries perfecting but are no longer necessary.”
Digital Shift Take Aways
Tethered Self -> More Immersive Experiences -> Manicured Self
Creativity + Nature (or VR?) + Connection = Happiness
What happens when everyone is capable of perfection?
Ethical challenges will outweigh technical challenges
History of AOLAOL originally founded in 1985; not legal for consumers to connect to “internet” until 7 yrs later.
AOL was originally AppleLink until Apple yanked the licensing last minute.
The 3 Waves of the Internet1985 - 2000: focused on infrastructure; Cisco, Netscape, AOL, etc. Getting plumbing in place.
2000 - 2015: not focused on building the internet, focused on building on top of the internet. Google, Facebook, Twitter.
2015 - 2030: will focus more on integrating internet into daily life; will disrupt healthcare, education, energy & food industries.
4 Trends in Third Wave
Capital for All
Strategic Partnerships Reemerge
Social Enterprises or Impact Investing; Purpose + Profits; B-Corps
Entrepreneurship goes both regional & global
Biz Stone on Creativity
Super.me app, pivoted from Jelly
Empathy & feeling based communication
Emotional investment in what you’re working on
– Biz Stone
“If you want to build a platform capable of toppling a despotic regime, it also has to support fart jokes.”
@garyvee vs Jack WelchSelf Awareness is critical
Can’t judge businesses based on numbers; also must have cultural fit
The generosity gene is the one thing you should look for in a boss
Scale of new businesses in 2 - 3 years much larger; examples of Uber & Snapchat
Consumer Data
Consumer Needs // Business Needs // Technical Capabilities
Share Early & Often with Stakeholders within your business
Customization vs Personalization: personalization is driven by behavior, not settings
Consumer Data
Avoiding Being Creepy
Target Predicting Pregnancy
Amazon’s Anticipatory Shipping
Hello Barbie Wi-Fi Connected Doll
TiVo knows what you’ll watch, and when…but doesn’t necessarily tell you
– Margret Schmidt
“I don’t think I should own a watch that costs more than the resale value of my car.”
Evolution of a Company
Scissors: scrappy startups
Rocks: mid-sized companies
Papers: giant, established companies
Epic InsightsWhen you do a pros/cons evaluation, you typically take the least bad option, not really focusing on positives
When thinking strategically, you need to choose the option that has the best upside
Focus on upsides, the positive outcomes if “we don’t screw this up”
Saying no to stuff you don’t want to do isn’t focus. Focus is saying no to things that you would want to do.
Bold Lessons
Avoid the Rocks: don’t go into a market that has 3 to 4 rocks already in it
Focus: be “impressive” at first; exert “sustained pressure” once you reach rock phase
What if it’s Great: focus on the upside, not the downside
Transhumanism
Mind Clones
Identity Will Transcend Your Body
Disagreements with Your Mind Clones; Divorce from Clones; Voting Rights for Clones
More Transhumanism
Parallels between mind clones & illegal aliens
Don’t want to create a slave vs free construct between cyber beings & physical beings
New industry for cyber psychiatry
Lifenaut website available to create/preserve your own mind file
Connected WorldImportance of Retail Education
Smart vs Connected
Products who “think” about their owners (Ex: toothpaste)
Thread protocol for simplifying Zigbee
Change UI based upon home or away
Design Focused CompaniesMajority of designers consider themselves self-taught
Ratio of designers to engineers in new reality is 1:4 to 1:5
Design for the “after wow”; the long term wow based on earning your user’s confidence
Beyond MobileNatural language processing will play an increasingly important role
Importance of haptic/taptic communication, especially for illiterate
Very few future wearables will have their own screen or own UI
Importance of mobile payments & extinction of paper money to ensure accuracy in tax collections; Greece may be 1st mover
Beyond MobileAdvantages in designing for smallest screen first, then scaling up from there
Increasing need for emotional context to communications; Emoji have attempted to fill this gap
Dumb Screens will proliferate, on which smart devices will “project” data that may be viewed on watches today
API Layer between the various services really becomes the most important part
Keys for US InnovationBest jobs of the future will be those that combine the best of humans with the best of computers
Focus on digital service to country
Must encourage creation of entrepreneurs
Fixing female enrollment in Comp Sci (was 34% in ’85, only 13% in ’15)
Universal broadband the key to the knowledge economy
A Look Inside DARPA
Last 10 years have been decade of data; next 10 will be decade of biology
Capturing rat brain tissue to transfer learning; digital intermediary also works
Planet X framework for cyber warriors to be extremely effective even if they don’t know how it all works
A Look Inside DARPACode Diversity: make software slightly different per instance to make it more resistant to virus attacks
Don’t worry about replicating a human with a computer; instead create one that works with a human to accomplish together what neither could independently
Value in asking your AI “Why?”
Example of getting non-snipers to shoot like snipers when similar brain activity states are achieved
MoonshotsHuge Problem + Radical Solution + Breakthrough Technology = Google[x]
Embracing Failure
Building Social Norms via Glass Explorer Pgm
Project Wing Flying Delivery Airframe
MoonshotsProject Makani Airborne Wind Turbines
For self-driving cars, autonomous tech was “done” 3 years ago
Had to go back to drawing board because humans were not reliable backup
SXSW 2015Meerkat is everywhere
Ethics matter more than ever
Human needs rarely change; just the tools
For better or worse, government will become increasingly involved in technology