Post on 03-Feb-2016
description
Sustainable Fuel Alternatives
Myths, Misconceptions and Reality
Peak Oil Discoverer M. King Hubbert 1903-1989
• Shell Oil Geologist / Petroleum Scientist
• In 1954 he predicted that U.S. oil would peak about 1970– Controversial – His estimates were highly accurate
• In 1984 Hubbert predicted world peak oil in the early 2000s
USA Oil Peaked in 1970http://www.oilcrisis.com/de/lecture.html
# Producing Nation for 2004 (×106bbl/d) (×103m³/d)
1 Saudi Arabia (OPEC) 10.37 1,649
2 Russia 9.27 1,474
3 United States 1 8.69 1,382
4 Iran (OPEC) 4.09 650
5 Mexico 1 3.83 609
6 China 1 3.62 576
7 Norway 1 3.18 506
8 Canada 1,3 3.14 499
9 Venezuela (OPEC) 1 2.86 455
10 United Arab Emirates (OPEC) 2.76 439
11 Kuwait (OPEC) 2.51 399
12 Nigeria (OPEC) 2.51 399
13 United Kingdom 1 2.08 331
14 Iraq (OPEC) 2 2.03 323
Top petroleum-consuming countries
# Consuming Nation (bbl/day) (m³/day)
1 United States 20,030,000 3,184,516
2 China 6,391,000 1,016,088
3 Japan 5,578,000 886,831
4 Russia 2,800,000 445,164
5 Germany 2,677,000 425,609
6 India 2,320,000 368,851
7 Canada 2,300,000 365,671
8 South Korea 2,061,000 327,673
9 France 2,060,000 327,514
10 Italy 1,874,000 297,942
11 Saudi Arabia 1,775,000 282,202
12 Mexico 1,752,000 278,546
13 United Kingdom 1,722,000 273,776
14 Brazil 1,610,000 255,970
Jean Laherr`ere, Estimates of Oil Reserves, paper presented at the EMF/IEA/IEW meeting in Laxenburg, Austria, June 19, 2001. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/ECS/IEW2001/pdffiles/Papers/Laherrere-long.pdf
“Ethanol boom may fuel shortage of tequila”
“Biofuel brews up higher German beer
prices”
"It's absolutely outrageous that beer is getting even more expensive," Glitsch said, gulping down the last swig of his half-liter dark beer at lunch. "But there's nothing we can do about it, except drinking less –
AND THAT’S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN."
Hydrogen Concept Car
• Home energy consumption averages:• space conditioning, 44% • water heating, 13% • lighting, 12%
– Subtotal=69%• refrigeration, 8% • home electronics, 6% • laundry appliances, 5% • kitchen appliances, 4% • other uses, 8%
DoD Fuel Consumption• The US Department of Defense (DoD) is the largest oil consuming government body
in the US and in the world
• Military fuel consumption makes the Department of Defense the single largest consumer of petroleum in the U.S
• Military fuel consumption for aircraft, ships, ground vehicles and facilities makes the DoD the single largest consumer of petroleum in the U.S
• According to the US Defense Energy Support Center Fact Book 2004, in Fiscal Year 2004, the US military fuel consumption increased to 144 million barrels. This is about 40 million barrels more than the average peacetime military usage.
• 144 million barrels makes 395 000 barrels per day, almost as much as daily energy consumption of Sweden or Switzerland.
• In the Defense Logistic Agency’s news magazine Dimensions it was stated that the DESC purchases more light refined petroleum product than any other single organization or country in the world. With a $3.5 billion annual budget, DESC procures nearly 100 million barrels of petroleum products each year.
THE RIMINI PROTOCOLhttp://www.peakoil.ie/protocol
• Kyoto Protocol deals with climate change.• “Oil Depletion Protocol” (RIMINI Protocol)
deals with Peak Oil. – “Each importing country shall reduce its imports to
match the current World Depletion Rate.”• That is, if World Depletion Rate is 3%, the U.S. (and all other
countries), must reduce it’s oil imports by 3% per year.
– That is: agreement for each nation to share the declining energy burden proportionately.
Conclusions
• Nothing on the horizon to replace the economic or environmental advantages of oil or natural gas
• Peak oil doesn’t mean oil “runs out” –but tighter supplies will lead to price increases.
• Major portions of the US energy strategy should be abandoned or curtailed, including ethanol and hydrogen.
• All non-renewable energy (Nuclear, coal and tar sands will increase in price due to higher costs of production and increased cost of extraction.
• Coal is the leading candidate to replace oil to fuel the US-and the world- economy.
• There will be a shift to “electrification” of the US economy.
• There will be plenty of oil available for the rest of the century-if we can outbid the rest of the world.
• Aggressive conservation (Negawatts) should be a top priority for pessimistic or optimistic energy strategies.
• We need to base our energy decisions on time periods of decades not election cycles.