Post on 24-Aug-2019
Sustainability Scenarios for a
Resource Efficient Europe
Appendix C to the Final Report for the
European Commission (DG Environment)
8 June 2011
Cambridge Econometrics
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Sustainability Scenarios for a Resource Efficient Europe: Final Report
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Revision and Authorisation History
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Description
1.0 8/8/2011 Anthony Barker Version accompanying draft final report
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Contents
Page
Appendix C: Tabular overview of selected sustainability scenario studies 4
Table C.1: GEO 4 by UNEP (2007) .............................................................................. 4 Table C.2: Scarcity and Transition by Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2010) ........ 4 Table C.3: Moving into the Right Lane for 2050 by PBL and SRC (2009) .................. 5 Table C.4: The Netherlands in a Sustainable World by PBL (2008) ............................ 5 Table C.5: Exploring Sustainable Development by WBCSD (1997) ............................ 6 Table C.6: Limits to Growth: The 30 Years Update by Meadows, Randers and
Meadows (2004) ............................................................................................................ 6 Table C.7: Growing within limits by PBL (2009) ......................................................... 6 Table C.8: Phosphorus by PBL and Wageningen University (2010) ............................ 7 Table C.9: New Risks and Opportunities for Food Security by IFPRI (2005) .............. 7 Table C.10: The Future of Food and Farming by GO-S (2011) .................................... 7 Table C.11: World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050 by FAO (2006) .......................... 8 Table C.12: Assessing Biofuels by IPSRM (2009) ....................................................... 8 Table C.13: Water for Food, Water for Life by IWMI (2007) ...................................... 9 Table C.14: Characterising a Sustainability Transition by ISciences (2003) ................ 9 Table C.15: An Integrated Analysis of Changes in Water Stress in Europe by Kassel
University (2003) ..........................................................................................................10 Table C.16: Charting our water future by the 2030 Water Resources Group (2009) ...10 Table C.17:Impacts of Europe’s changing climate by the EEA-JRC-WHO (2008) ....10 Table C.18: Global water outlook to 2025 by IFPRI and IWMI (2002) ......................11 Table C.19: Energy Technology Perspectives by IEA (2008) .....................................11 Table C.20: Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 by Shell (2008) ......................................12 Table C.21: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability by IPCC
Working Group II (2007) .............................................................................................12 Table C.22: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change by IPCC Working
Group III (2007) ...........................................................................................................13 Table C.23: European Environment Outlook by the EEA (2005) ................................13 Table C.24: Outlook for Waste and Material Flows by the ETC/RWM (2005)...........14 Table C.25: Mosus Scenarios by SERI and IIASA (2006) ..........................................14 Table C.26: The Unfinished Agenda: Perspectives on Overcoming Hunger, Poverty
and Environmental Degradation by the IFPRI (2001) ..................................................15 Table C.27: State of the Future 2008 by The Millennium Project, World Federations
of UN Associations (2008) ...........................................................................................15 Table C.28: Prelude by EEA (2009) .............................................................................16 Table C.29: Foresight Land Use Features by GO-Science (2010) ...............................16 Table C.30: Foresight Intelligent Infrastructure Futures by Foresight (2006) .............16 Table C.31: England’s Natural Environment in 2060 by Natural England (2009) ......17 Table C.32: Aachener Szenario by the Aachen Foundation Kathy Beys (2005)..........18 Table C.33: MaRess scenarios by GWS and WI (2011) ..............................................18
Tables
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Appendix C: Tabular overview of selected
sustainability scenario studies
Table C.1: GEO 4 by UNEP (2007)
GEO 4 BY UNEP (2007)
Type of study Four explorative scenarios of plausible futures to the year 2050:
Markets First, Policy First, Security First and Sustainability First.
Geographical scope global
Temporal scope 2050
Resources covered - fossil fuels
- food and non-food biomass
- land use
- water
- biodiversity
Influencing factors Institutional and socio-political frameworks, demographics,
economic demand, markets and trade, scientific and technological
innovation, and value systems
Source(s): United Nations Environment Programme, 2007. Global Environment Outlook 4. Nairobi, Kenya:
UNEP. http://www.unep.org/geo/geo4/report/GEO-4_Report_Full_en.pdf
Table C.2: Scarcity and Transition by Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2010)
SCARCITY AND TRANSITION BY DUTCH MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS
(2010)
Type of study Literature study and expert judgement to 1) develop knowledge
on the interrelated problems of global scarcity of natural resources
and changing global geopolitical relations, and 2) explore with
narratives the ways to speed up the required transitions for the
future from a realistic-constructive perspective.
Geographical scope global
Temporal scope 2050
Resources covered food, water, energy, minerals and metals
Influencing factors Population growth, economic development, demand development,
energy prices, institutional limitations, international policy
relations, speculation, reserves
Source(s): Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2010. Scarcity and transition – Research questions for future policy
http://www.minbuza.nl/dsresource?objectid=buzabeheer:197513&type=org
Studies with broad
resource coverage:
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Table C.3: Moving into the Right Lane for 2050 by PBL and SRC (2009)
MOVING INTO THE RIGHT LANE FOR 2050 BY PBL AND SRC (2009)
Type of study Backcasting study 1) examining the EU of today, from a global
perspective, 2) looking at longterm visions on the world of 2050,
and 3) identifying key decisions for today on global land and
water resources, and low-carbon energy systems, including
transport.
Geographical scope EU (for decisions), global (for visions)
Temporal scope 2050
Resources covered food, and non-food biomass, water, land, energy
Influencing factors The outcome of the study is the description of key political
decisions that would be the influencing factors needed to reach
the visions for 2050.
Source(s): Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Stockholm Resilience Center, 2009. Moving into
the right lane for 2050 – A primer for EU debate. Bilhoven: PBL.
http://www.pbl.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/500159001.pdf
Table C.4: The Netherlands in a Sustainable World by PBL (2008)
THE NETHERLANDS IN A SUSTAINABLE WORLD BY PBL (2008)
Type of study Baseline scenario to 2040 developed by the OECD (together with
the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency);
Benefits and disadvantages of various possible policy choices are
explored vis-à-vis the Baseline scenario.
Geographical scope World, NL
Temporal scope 2040, 2050
Resources covered Land use, biodiversity, food and non food biomass, abiotic
resources
Influencing factors Economic growth, population growth, income, agricultural
efficiency, energy efficiency
Source(s): Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2009. The Netherlands in a Sustainable World –
Poverty, Climate and Biodiversity – Second Sustainability Outlook. Bilhoven: PBL.
http://www.pbl.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/500084003.pdf
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Table C.5: Exploring Sustainable Development by WBCSD (1997)
EXPLORING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT BY WBCSD (1997)
Type of study Three scenario narratives (Frog!, GEOpolity, Jazz) to explore the
challenges for businesses on the way to sustainable development
Geographical scope Global
Temporal scope 2050
Resources covered All at an implicit level
Influencing factors Economic growth, political and business institutions
Source(s): World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 1997. Exploring Sustainable Development –
WBCSD Global Scenarios 2000-2050.
http://www.wbcsd.org/DocRoot/FFiAJwjBGGNjlawOAipD/exploringscenarios.pdf
Table C.6: Limits to Growth: The 30 Years Update by Meadows, Randers and Meadows
(2004)
LIMITS TO GROWTH: THE 30 YEARS UPDATE BY MEADOWS, RANDERS AND
MEADOWS (2004)
Type of study Ten scenarios (simulated with the World3 model) exploring how
the expanding global population and materials economy may
interact with and adapt to the earth's limited carrying capacity.
Geographical scope Global
Temporal scope 2100
Resources covered All, in particular non-renewable resources
Influencing factors Population growth, economic growth
Source(s): Meadows, D. H., Randers, J. and Meadows, D.L., 2004. The Limits to Growth - The 30-year Update.
Chelsea Green.
Table C.7: Growing within limits by PBL (2009)
GROWING WITHIN LIMITS by PBL (2009)
Type of study Two scenarios (‘trend’ without major policy changes and
‘challenge’ depicting the options for change) focussing on two
clusters ‘energy supply and climate change’ and ‘agriculture and
biodiversity loss’
Geographical scope Global
Temporal scope 2050, 2100
Resources covered land use, food and non food biomass, fossil fuels, biodiversity
Influencing factors Population, energy consumption, diet, environmental policies
Source(s): PBL, 2009. Growing within Limits - A Report to the Global Assembly 2009 of the Club of Rome.
Bilthoven: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. http://bit.ly/fpn2aG
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Table C.8: Phosphorus by PBL and Wageningen University (2010)
PHOSPHORUS BY PBL AND WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY (2010)
Type of study Material flow analysis of phosphorous
Geographical scope Global
Temporal scope 2100
Resources covered Phosphorus (phosphate rocks)
Influencing factors Reserves, demand, geographical location of deposits
Source(s): Van Vuurena, D.P., Bouwmana, A.F. and Beusena A.H.W., 2010. Phosphorus demand for the 1970–
2100 period: A scenario analysis of resource depletion. Global Environmental Change, 20 (3), 428-439.
http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2010/Phosphorus-demand-for-the-1970-2100-period-A-scenario-analysis-of-
resource-depletion
Table C.9: New Risks and Opportunities for Food Security by IFPRI (2005)
NEW RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR FOOD SECURITY BY IFPRI (2005)
Type of study Explorative policy scenarios: future global food forecasts are
combined with policy action/inaction modelled with the
International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural
Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)
Geographical scope Global
Temporal scope 2015, 2050
Resources covered Food biomass, water, land use
Influencing factors Public investments and government expenditures on agriculture
and rural development; investments in education, social services,
and health; rate of agricultural technology improvement
(irrigation efficiency, irrigation expansion rate, water use
efficiency, yields development); level of trade restrictions
Source(s): International Food Policy Research Institute, 2005. New risks and opportunities for food security –
Scenario analyses for 2015 and 2050. Washington, D.C.: IFPRI. http://www.ifpri.org/2020/dp/dp39/2020dp39.pdf
Table C.10: The Future of Food and Farming by GO-S (2011)
THE FUTURE OF FOOD AND FARMING BY GO-S (2011)
Type of study Explorative future study conducted backcasting-like to identify
political decisions required to meet 5 challenges (a. balancing
future demand and supply sustainably, b. ensuring that there is
adequate stability in food supplies, c. achieving global access to
food and ending hunger, d. managing the contribution of the food
system to the mitigation of climate change, e. maintaining
biodiversity and ecosystem services while feeding the world)
Studies with a
focus on ‘mineral
resources’
Studies with a
focus on the
resources ‘food
and biomass’
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Geographical scope Global
Temporal scope 2050
Resources covered Food biomass, biodiversity, land use, water, fertilizers
Influencing factors Global population increases, changes in the size and nature of per
capita demand, future governance of the food system at both
national and international levels, climate change, competition for
key resources, changes in values and ethical stances of consumers
Source(s): Foresight, 2011. The Future of Food and Farming, Final Project Report. The Government Office for
Science, London. http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/bispartners/foresight/docs/food-and-farming/11-546-future-of-
food-and-farming-report.pdf
Table C.11: World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050 by FAO (2006)
WORLD AGRICULTURE: TOWARDS 2030/2050 BY FAO (2006)
Type of study Projections for food, nutrition, agricultural production and trade
based with assumptions based on the extrapolation of pat data.
Geographical scope Global
Temporal scope 2030, 2050
Resources covered Food and non-food biomass, land use
Influencing factors Population, food demand and consumption, energy prices
Source(s): FAO, 2006. World agriculture: towards 2030/2050 – Interim report – Prospects for food, nutrition,
agriculture and major commodity groups. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, Global Perspective
Studies Unit. http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/esag/docs/Interim_report_AT2050web.pdf
Table C.12: Assessing Biofuels by IPSRM (2009)
ASSESSING BIOFUELS BY IPSRM (2009)
Type of study Literature study; no scenario development but assessment of
existing scenarios and targets concerning (first generation)
biofuels
Geographical scope Global
Temporal scope 2020, 2030, and also references to targets and expected
development until 2050
Resources covered Non-food biomass, food biomass, land use
Influencing factors Development of demand for biomass for non-food uses (power,
heat, transportation), development of agricultural yields,
development of food demand
Source(s): International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management, 2009. Towards sustainable production and
use of resources: Assessing biofuels. United Nations Environment Programme.
http://www.unep.org/pdf/Assessing_Biofuels-full_report-Web.pdf
Studies with a
focus on the
resource ‘non-food
biomass’
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Table C.13: Water for Food, Water for Life by IWMI (2007)
WATER FOR FOOD, WATER FOR LIFE BY IWMI (2007)
Type of study Ex-ante policy assessments aimed at decision makers, building on
the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in
Agriculture which critically evaluated the past 50 years of water
development and management world-wide.
Geographical scope Global
Temporal scope 2050
Resources covered Water, food biomass, non food biomass
Influencing factors Mainly political factors concerning water rights, technology
development, investments etc.
Source(s): International Water Management Institute, 2007. Water for food, water for life - A Comprehensive
Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture. Sterling, VA: Earthscan.
http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Assessment/files_new/synthesis/Summary_SynthesisBook.pdf
Table C.14: Characterising a Sustainability Transition by ISciences (2003)
CHARACTERISING A SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION BY ISCIENCES (2003)
Type of study Backcasting-like review where the authors
1) identify a small set of goals, quantitative targets, and associated
indicators that further characterize a sustainability transition by
drawing on the consensus embodied in internationally negotiated
agreements and plans of action.
2) examine current scholarship on the processes that influence
attainment of four goals (reducing hunger, promoting literacy,
stabilizing greenhouse-gas concentrations, and maintaining fresh-
water availability) to reveal ‘levers of change’, i.e. forces that
both control the rate of positive change and are subject to policy
intervention.
Geographical scope Global
Temporal scope 2025, 2025, 2050
Resources covered Water (also simply mentioned: marine biomass, land use / land
cover, biodiversity).
Influencing factors Population, affluence or income, technology, economic and
regulatory incentives;
- mention of example cases of changes in consumer preferences,
presented as tantalizing, although anecdotal.
Source(s): Parris, T. M. and Kates, R. W., 2003. Characterizing a sustainability transition: Goals, targets, trends,
and driving forces. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 100 (14), 8068–8073.
http://www.pnas.org/content/100/14/8068.full.pdf+html
Studies with a
focus on the
resource ‘water’
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Table C.15: An Integrated Analysis of Changes in Water Stress in Europe by Kassel
University (2003)
AN INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN WATER STRESS IN EUROPE BY
KASSEL UNIVERSITY (2003)
Type of study Long-term scenario analysis using projections under different sets
of assumptions
Geographical scope European river basins
Temporal scope 1995 to 2020s and 2070s
Resources covered Water (availability, use, stress)
Influencing factors Climate change (temperature, precipitation), socio-economic
development (population, income, electricity production, irrigated
areas, structural change, technological change)
Source(s): Henrichs, T., Lehner, B. and Alcamo, J., 2002. An integrated analysis of changes in water stress in
Europe. Integrated Assessment, 3 (1), 15-29.
http://journals.sfu.ca/int_assess/index.php/iaj/article/viewFile/201/152
Table C.16: Charting our water future by the 2030 Water Resources Group (2009)
CHARTING OUR WATER FUTURE by the 2030 Water Resources Group (2009)
Type of study A baseline scenario shows a growing “water gap” until 2030, the
study looks at supply and demand measures and their cost in a
backcasting-like manner that would allow to close the gap.
Geographical scope World (with particular focus on India, China, Sub-Saharan Africa)
Temporal scope 2030
Resources covered Water
Influencing factors Economic and population growth, Food production, industrial
production (incl. power generation)
Source(s): 2030 Water Resources Group, 2009. Charting Our Water Future - Economic frameworks to inform
decision-making.
http://www.mckinsey.com/App_Media/Reports/Water/Charting_Our_Water_Future_Full_Report_001.pdf
Table C.17:Impacts of Europe’s changing climate by the EEA-JRC-WHO (2008)
IMPACTS OF EUROPE'S CHANGING CLIMATE by the EEA-JRC-WHO (2008)
Type of study Explorative (past trends analysis and projections for the future)
Geographical scope EU-25
Temporal scope 2100
Resources covered Water, marine biodiversity, freshwater biodiversity
Influencing factors Climate change
Source(s): EEA-JRC-WHO 2008. Impacts of Europe's changing climate - 2008 indicator-based assessment,
Chapter 5 Sections 5 - Water quantity, river floods and droughts, 6 - Freshwater quality and biodiversity. EEA
Report No 4/2008, JRC Reference Report No JRC47756.
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp76-110CC2008_ch5-
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4to6_Water_quantity_and_quality.pdf
Table C.18: Global water outlook to 2025 by IFPRI and IWMI (2002)
GLOBAL WATER OUTLOOK TO 2025 by IFPRI and IWMI (2002)
Type of study Explorative (projections or demand for and availability of water)
Geographical scope World
Temporal scope 2025
Resources covered Water quantities, food biomass
Influencing factors Water prices, water use efficiency, population growth, growth in
live-stock production, government spending, climate change
Source(s): Mark W. Rosegrant, Ximing Cai, and Sarah A.Cline, 2002. Global Water Outlook to 2025 - Averting an
Impending Crisis. Washington,D.C., U.S.A.: International Food Policy Research Institute. Colombo, Sri Lanka:
International Water Management Institute.
http://www.greencrossitalia.it/ita/acqua/risorse_acqua/pdf/rapporto%20IWMI%202025.pdf
http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/water2025.pdf
Table C.19: Energy Technology Perspectives by IEA (2008)
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES BY IEA (2008)
Type of study ACT scenarios and Blue scenarios, respectively less and more
ambitious regarding the level of Carbon dioxide emissions to be
reached in 2050.
Geographical scope Global
Temporal scope 2050
Resources covered Fossil fuels, non-food biomass (biofuels)
Influencing factors Energy efficiency, investments, climate change, economic
development, technology
Source(s): IEA, 2008. Energy technology perspectives – Scenarios and perspectives to 2050. OECD/IEA.
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/techno/etp/ETP_2008_Exec_Sum_English.pdf
Studies with a
focus on ‘energy’
or the impact
category ‘climate
change’
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Table C.20: Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 by Shell (2008)
SHELL ENERGY SCENARIOS TO 2050 BY SHELL (2008)
Type of study Two alternative scenarios (Scramble, Blue print) explore different
ways towards “more energy, less carbon dioxide”.
Geographical scope Global
Temporal scope 2015, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050
Resources covered Fossil fuels, non-food biomass (biofuels)
Influencing factors Energy efficiency, energy scarcity/security, climate change,
economic development, environmental pollution, technology
Source(s): Shell, 2008. Shell energy scenarios to 2050. http://www-
static.shell.com/static/public/downloads/brochures/corporate_pkg/scenarios/shell_energy_scenarios_2050.pdf
Table C.21: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability by IPCC
Working Group II (2007)
CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: IMPACTS. ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY BY
IPCC WORKING GROUP II (2007)
Type of study Explorative (address the future impacts of climate change on
sectors and regions, the potential for adaptation and the
implications for sustainability)
Geographical scope World (regionally differentiated)
Temporal scope Up to 2100
Resources covered Freshwater, ecosystems, food and non-food biomass
Influencing factors Mainly climatic drivers
Source(s): IPCC Working Group II, 2007. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK.
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg2_report_impacts_adap
tation_and_vulnerability.htm
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Table C.22: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change by IPCC Working
Group III (2007)
CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE BY IPCC
WORKING GROUP III (2007)
Type of study Explorative (assessing options for mitigating climate change)
Geographical scope World (regionally differentiated)
Temporal scope Up to 2100
Resources covered Energy and climate
Influencing factors Population and economic growth. Sectors responsible for GHG
emissions: Energy supply, Transport and its infrastructure,
Residential and commercial buildings, Industry, Agriculture,
Forestry, Waste management
Source(s): IPCC Working Group III, 2007. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Mitigation of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK and New York, NY.
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg3_report_mitigation_of
_climate_change.htm
Table C.23: European Environment Outlook by the EEA (2005)
EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT OUTLOOK BY THE EEA (2005)
Type of study Forecasting scenarios compared to EU policy targets
Policy testing with alternative scenarios.
Geographical scope EEA-31, EU-15, EU-10 and other intermediary levels of
aggregations
Temporal scope 2000-2020 (biotic and abiotic resources), 2000-2030 (fossil fuels),
2000-2100 (biodiversity);
As high as 5-year resolution in some cases (e.g. water)
Resources covered Material flows of fossil fuels, metals, minerals, and biomass
Water use and water quality
Land use
Biodiversity (number of plant species)
Influencing factors Demographic patterns, socio-cultural developments, macro-
economic developments, technological developments, sectoral
developments
Source(s): EEA, 2005. European environment outlook. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen. EEA Report
No 4/2005. http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2005_4
Studies with a
shorter time scope
than 2050
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Table C.24: Outlook for Waste and Material Flows by the ETC/RWM (2005)
OUTLOOK FOR WASTE AND MATERIAL FLOWS BY THE ETC/RWM (2005)
Type of study Forecasting scenarios compared to EU policy targets;
Prospective policy analysis with alternative scenarios.
Geographical scope EU-15, EU-10
Temporal scope Period 2000-2020
Resources covered Material flows of fossil fuels, metals, minerals, and biomass
Influencing factors Economic activities and demographic variables
Source(s): Skovgaard, M., Moll, S., Andersen, F. M. and Larsen, H., 2005. Outlook for waste and material flows –
Baseline and alternative scenarios. Copenhagen: European Topic Centre on Waste and Material Flows. Working
paper 2005/1. http://scp.eionet.europa.eu/publications/wp2005_01
Table C.25: Mosus Scenarios by SERI and IIASA (2006)
MOSUS SCENARIOS BY SERI AND IIASA (2006)
Type of study Three forecasting scenario (baseline, low and high sustainability)
linking economic performance with resource use and
environmental deterioration;
Developed own model that directly integrates comprehensive
biophysical data (material use, energy use and CO2 emissions) in
a multi-country, multi-sectoral macroeconomic framework,
including trade flows within Europe and between Europe and all
other world regions.
Geographical scope Focus on Europe with system boundaries extended globally.
Temporal scope 2020
Resources covered Food and non-food biomass
Fossil fuels, metals, construction and industrial minerals,
including unused domestic extraction
Land use, land cover (forestry and built-up area)
Influencing factors Economic development at the sectoral level
Policy instruments at the macro-level
Policy strategies at the sectoral level
Source(s):
1. Stefan Giljum, Mark Hammer, Friedrich Hinterberger (2004). Resource use scenarios for Europe in 2020. SERI
Studies. No. 1. Sustainable Europe Research Institute, Vienna.
http://www.mosus.net/documents/SERI%20Studies%201.pdf
2. Stefan Giljum, Arno Behrens, Friedrich Hinterberger, Andrea Stocker (2005): Evaluation component: Material
extraction. Sustainable Europe Research Institute (SERI), Vienna.
http://www.mosus.net/documents/Evaluation%20report_Material%20flows_final.pdf
3.Sylvia Prieler: Built-up and associated land area increases in Europe (2005): WP 3 – Environmental Evaluation,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), LAND USE CHANGE and AGRICULTURE
Project. http://www.mosus.net/documents/MOSUS_Built-up%20land%20increases.pdf
4. Land appropriation of the forest sector, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), LAND
USE CHANGE and AGRICULTURE Project. http://www.mosus.net/documents/MOSUS_Forestry%20sector.pdf
5. Stefan Giljum, Friedrich Hinterberger, Andrzej Kassenberg, Ewa Swierkula (2006): Policy recommendations.
Report from MOSUS Work Package 6. SERI, Vienna.
http://www.mosus.net/documents/MOSUS%20Policy%20recommendations.pdf
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Table C.26: The Unfinished Agenda: Perspectives on Overcoming Hunger, Poverty and
Environmental Degradation by the IFPRI (2001)
THE UNFINISHED AGENDA: PERSPECTIVES ON OVERCOMING HUNGER,
POVERTY AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION BY THE IFPRI (2001)
Type of study A book bringing together policy briefs and articles generated by
the 2020 Vision initiative.
Geographical scope Global
Temporal scope 2020
Resources covered Food biomass (incl. meat, fish)
Land use, land cover (rain forest)
Water
Influencing factors Population growth, diet trends, and diverse others for different
policy briefs
Source(s): International Food Policy Research Institute, 2001. The unfinished agenda – Perspectives on
Overcoming Hunger, Poverty, and Environmental Degradation. Washington, D.C.: IFPRI.
http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/books/ufa/ufa.pdf
Table C.27: State of the Future 2008 by The Millennium Project, World Federations of
UN Associations (2008)
STATE OF THE FUTURE BY THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT, WORLD
FEDERATIONS OF UN ASSOCIATIONS (2008)
Type of study A chapter of the book regards the “State of the Future Index”: an
aggregated quantitative forecast of general future outlook
intended to show the directions and intensity of change and
identify the factors responsible.
Geographical scope Global
Temporal scope 2020
Resources covered Aggregated with other variables into the 2007 SOFI: food and
non-food biomass, fossil fuels, water
Influencing factors Population growth, economic growth, income differences, access
to ICT etc.
Source(s): Glenn, J. C., Gordon, T. J. and Florescu, E., 2008. State of the future 2008. Washington, D.C.: World
Federation of UN Associations. http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/sof2008.html
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Table C.28: Prelude by EEA (2009)
PRELUDE BY EEA (2009)
Type of study Five explorative scenarios (narratives + analytical results): Great
escape (Europe of contrasts), Evolved society (Europe of
harmony), Clustered networks (Europe of structure), Lettuce
surprise u (Europe of innovation), Big crisis (Europe of cohesion).
Geographical scope Europe
Temporal scope 2030
Resources covered Land use and land cover
Influencing factors International trade (globalisation), level of solidarity, level of
policy intervention, energy scarcity, level of environmental
awareness, population dynamics, technology innovation
Source(s): http://www.eea.europa.eu/multimedia/interactive/prelude-scenarios/prelude
Table C.29: Foresight Land Use Features by GO-Science (2010)
FORESIGHT LAND USE FEATURES BY GO-SCIENCE (2010)
Type of study Explorative future study to inform strategic planning
Geographical scope UK with primary focus on England
Temporal scope 2050
Resources covered Land use
Influencing factors Demographic change, economic growth and changing global
economic conditions, climate change, new technologies, societal
preferences and attitudes, the policy and regulatory environment
Source(s): Foresight, 2010. Land Use Futures Project, Final Project Report. The Government Office for Science,
London. http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/bispartners/foresight/docs/land-use/luf_report/8507-bis-land_use_futures-
web.pdf
Table C.30: Foresight Intelligent Infrastructure Futures by Foresight (2006)
FORESIGHT INTELLIGENT INFRASTRUCTURE FUTURES BY FORESIGHT
(2006)
Type of study Prospective future study to examine the challenges and
opportunities for the UK in bringing ‘intelligence’ to its
infrastructure (the physical networks that deliver such services as
transport, telecommunications, water and energy).
Four scenarios: Perpetual motion, Urban colonies, Tribal trading,
Good intentions.
Geographical scope UK
Temporal scope 2055
Studies (in
English) with a
national or sub-
national scope
Sustainability Scenarios for a Resource Efficient Europe: Final Report
17
Resources covered Abiotic minerals (metals, construction and industrial minerals),
fossil fuels are addressed in the narratives
Influencing factors Main drivers for each of the four scenarios, respectively:
- information, consumption and competition
- good environmental practice in economic and social policies
- an energy shock
- imposed carbon emissions reduction
Source(s): Foresight, 2006. Intelligent infrastructure future: the scenarios towards 2055. Foresight Office of
Science and Technology, London. http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/bispartners/foresight/docs/intelligent-
infrastructure-systems/the-scenarios-2055.pdf
Table C.31: England’s Natural Environment in 2060 by Natural England (2009)
ENGLAND’S NATURAL ENVIRONMENT IN 2060 BY NATURAL ENGLAND (2009)
Type of study Four scenarios (Connect for life, Go for growth, Keep it local,
Succeed through science) to explore future challenges that UK
may face in conserving, enhancing and managing its natural
environment.
Geographical scope UK
Temporal scope 2060
Resources covered The “natural environment”: include all land, flora and fauna,
freshwater and marine environments, geology and soils. It ranges
from inner city gardens, to farmland, remote wilderness and the
high seas.
Influencing factors Climate Change, Converging Technologies, Demographics,
Energy technologies supply, Food Security, World Economic
Power Shifts, Governance, Health and Wellbeing, Infectious
Diseases, Marine – Ocean acidification and over–fishing,
Mobility, Money, Wealth, Economy, Resources – Global scarcity,
Values and People – Generational shift and complexity
Source(s):
1. Natural England, 2009a. Global drivers of change to 2060. Commissioned Report NECR030.
http://naturalengland.etraderstores.com/NaturalEnglandShop/NECR030
2. Natural England, 2009b. England’s natural environment in 2060 - issues, implications and scenarios.
Commissioned Report NERR031. http://naturalengland.etraderstores.com/NaturalEnglandShop/NERR031
3. Natural England, 2009c. Scenarios compendium. Commissioned Report NECR031.
http://naturalengland.etraderstores.com/NaturalEnglandShop/NECR031
Sustainability Scenarios for a Resource Efficient Europe: Final Report
18
Table C.32: Aachener Szenario by the Aachen Foundation Kathy Beys (2005)
AACHENER SZENARIO by the Aachen Foundation Kathy Beys (2005)
Type of study Scenarios and modelling investigating the impact of increased
resource productivity, introduced taxes on material inputs, and
modified gross value added tax on employment and economic
growth.
Geographical scope Germany
Temporal scope 2020
Resources covered material resources (TMR)
Influencing factors Tax system, final consumption, technology development
Source(s): Aachen Foundation, 2005. Resource productivity as a chance - A longterm stimulus plan for Germany
[Ressourcenproduktivität als Chance - Ein langfristiges Konjunkturprogramm f r eutschland . Aachen: Aachener
Stiftung Kathy Beys. http://bit.ly/gYYpjO
Table C.33: MaRess scenarios by GWS and WI (2011)
MaRess SCENARIOS by GWS and WI (2011)
Type of study Forecasts depicting the economy, resource consumption and
emissions
Geographical scope Germany
Temporal scope every year until 2030
Resources covered material resources (TMR and TMC)
Influencing factors Development of the world economy, instruments of
environmental policy
Source(s): Distelkamp, M., Meyer, B. and Meyer, M., 2011. Quantitative and qualitative effects of a forced resource
efficiency strategy. Resource Efficiency Paper 5.4, Wuppertal. http://ressourcen.wupperinst.org/en/home/index.html
Studies (in
German) with a
national or sub-
national scope