2017 Mid Year Report July 1, 2017

STOWE AREA MARKET REPORT COLDWELL BANKER CARLSON REAL ESTATE

COMPREHENSIVE REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS

As we saw in Q1 low inventory remains the most influential factor affecting sales. When it comes to residential homes in the area, buyers have fewer choices, ultimately resulting in a decreased number of sales.  What has increased, in many cases, is the number of offers on a home. Which has led to increased sale prices in some instances. In fact, the sale price to town assessment ratio for all price ranges, went up for the first time in 7 years. We also saw an increase in the median and average sale prices of residential homes in Stowe for the first 6 months of 2017.

Buyer demand remains high, some of which is presumably tied to the Vail purchase of Stowe Mountain Resort. We’ve had buyers express this as their reasons for choosing to invest in Stowe real estate.

Interest rates are still low and remain steady, although we’ve seen an increase in cash offers since the Q1. The overall health and outlook for the market is good and stable.

Our experience and expertise in this competitive market, has enabled us to help advise our buyers and sellers to reach their goals and achieve the best outcome.

Sincerely,

Peggy, McKee and MaggieThe Smith Macdonald Group(802) 375-5009 | info@stowere.com | www.stowere.com

INVENTORY DOWN, NAVIGATING TODAY’S MARKET

2017 Mid Year Report July 1, 2017

STOWE RESIDENTIAL COMBINED: Q1 & Q2Median: $475,500Average: $606,703Units Sold: 31Available Units: 68Months Supply: 13

Over the past six months 52% of homes sold in Stowe were under $500,000. 35% of the homes sold between $500,000 and $1M. There were only three sales between $1M and $2M, and only one over $2M, at $2,525,000.

Recently, we have seen more activity in the $1M+ price point. There are currently 17 homes under contract, and 7 of those are listed over $1M. CBCRE represents the majority of the 7 homes in contract over $1M.

STOWE RESIDENTIAL SALES

Stowe Residential Sales: Jan-Jun 2017

3%10%

35%

52%

Under $500,000 $500,000 to $1,000,000$1,000,000 to $1,500,000 Over $1,500,000

HOMES UNDER $500,000 CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MARKET ACTIVITY

CURRENT RATESConventional 30 Yr Fixed: 3.990%**Jumbo 30 Yr Fixed: 4.125%**FHA 30 Yr Fixed: 3.875% ***

*Rates subject to change**Conventional & Jumbo Rates assume 20% down***FHA is with 3.5% Down

STOWE RESIDENTIALCOMBINED Q1 & Q2 Sold Price to Town AssessmentUnder $500K: 5% over$500K-$1M: 14% over$1M-$1.5M: 9% over$1.5M+: 25% over

2017 Mid Year Report July 1, 2017

In Stowe, for the first six months of 2017, the total number of residential sales are down from 45 to 31, as compared to 2016. This is a sharp contrast to last year at this time and is largely due to the lack of inventory. The continued lack of new homes being listed for sale, along with high buyer demand, has affected the ratio of selling price to town assessment.

Stowe Residential Sales: Jan-Jun 2017Selling Price to Assessment

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

25%

0%

24%

0%

23%

-6%

5%

15%

0%

9%

24%

5%

14%

10%

6%3%

-6%

0%

14%

8%

-1%-1%

4%6%

-5%-8%

-1%

5%

-1%-1%

-7%-4%

-13%-12%

8%

1%

Under $500,000 $500,000 to $1,000,000 $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 Over $1,500,000

This is the first time in 7 years that we have seen homes selling over assessed value in all price ranges. Additionally, the sold to list price ratio tightened between $500,000 and $1,500,000.

Residential Sold Stowe: Jan-Jun 2017

0

12.5

25

37.5

50

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

36 35

8

26

33

28

39

47

35

45

31

2017 Mid Year Report July 1, 2017

Navigating the Market: While sales are down and the median price is up, this does not mean a whole market shift to upward pricing. What it does mean, is that homes in certain segments of the market should sell at a faster pace than we’ve seen in the last 7 years. The segments that are moving a bit slower are still seeing benefits of this active market. Expertise in understanding these segments is paramount in determining the best approach to selling your home.

HOME SALES ARE DOWN 31%, BUT MEDIAN SALES PRICES IN STOWE ARE UP 25%

Stowe Residential Sold: Jan-Jun 2017

0

17.5

35

52.5

70

Under $500K $500K to $1M $1M to $1.5M Over $1.5M Total

68

1615

30

7

31

13

11

16

45

03

14

28

Sold 2016 Sold 2017 On Market

2017 Mid Year Report July 1, 2017

STOWE CONDO COMBINED Q1 & Q2 Sold Price to Town AssessmentUnder $200K: 1% over$200K-$400K: 0% over$400K-$600K: 8% over$600K+: 34% over

The 50% increase in Stowe condominium sales likely speaks to buyers’ desire to own a second home or investment property at an affordable price. Somewhat maintenance free living and good rental capability add to the features that buyers find beneficial. We have seen a trend of increased condo sales since the news broke about Vail Resorts purchasing Stowe Mountain Resort. Most of the condos that have sold in 2017 are located on the Mountain Road corridor and near Stowe Mountain Resort.

There are 14 condominiums currently under contract, the highest listing price of which is $560,000. As in Q1 of 2017 we continue to see condo sales primarily taking place along the Mountain Road.

STOWE CONDOS SAW THE LARGEST GAIN IN NUMBER OF SALES FOR ALL

CATEGORIES IN THE AREA

STOWE CONDOMINIUM SALES

Condominium Sold Stowe: Jan-Jun 2017

0

7.5

15

22.5

30

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1921

12

7

12

15

11

15

2523

30

STOWE CONDOCOMBINED: Q1 & Q2Median: $236,000Average: $376,857Units Sold: 30Available Units: 61Months Supply: 12

2017 Mid Year Report July 1, 2017

Navigating the Market: While condo sales increased there are a number of complexities that factor into which condos make up the increase in these sales and why. Two major factors are the carrying costs, including HOA fees and taxes, and resalability. Analyzing the best condo to meet your overall needs is important to making a strong investment. While resale should always be seriously considered, depending on a buyer’s needs, carrying costs can often be defrayed by renting the unit when it would otherwise go unused.

Stowe Condominium Sales: Jan-Jun 2017

0

17.5

35

52.5

70

Under $200,000 $200,000 to $400,000 $400,000 to $600,000 Over $600,000 Total

61

131112

25

30

41

17

8

20

14

87

Sold 2016 Sold 2017 On Market

THE FIRST 6 MONTHS OF 2017 SHOWED A 50% INCREASE IN CONDO SALES IN STOWE

2017 Mid Year Report July 1, 2017

STOWE LAND SALES

A 22% INCREASE IN LAND SUPPLY FROM 2016 MEANS A 60 MONTH

SUPPLY OF LAND.

Stowe Land Sales: Jan-Jun 2017

0

12.5

25

37.5

50

Under $25K $250k to $500k Over $500k Total

50

6

13

31

5

00

57

223

Sold 2016 Sold 2017 On Market

Land sales in Stowe have still not seen the same demand as homes and condominiums. There were only 5 land parcels sold in Q2, which was almost 30% lower than last year at this time. This is likely due to buyers continuing to find it easier to purchase a pre-existing property versus taking the time to design and build a new home, not to mention the added expense.  

The median sale price per lot in Stowe dropped as much as 66% to $110,000. The highest sale price was $218,000. There are currently 6 land parcels under contract.

STOWE LANDCOMBINED: Q1 & Q2Median: $110,000Average: $125,600Units Sold: 5Available Units: 50Months Supply: 60

Navigating the Market: Raw land is a complex purchase with many unknown factors, utilizing our expertise along with the right team of providers can help realize new home dreams.

2017 Mid Year Report July 1, 2017

LAMOILLE COUNTY RESIDENTIAL COMBINED Q1 & Q2Median: $201,900Average: $250,970Units Sold: 94Available Units: 197Months Supply: 13

*Above stats are for Lamoille County excluding Stowe.

There were 94 home sales in Lamoille County, outside of Stowe, which is slightly lower than 2016. Despite the slight drop, lack of inventory has had a similar effect on sales. The average sale price for homes in Lamoille was up 17%. However, the median price of $201,900 was down slightly, by 2%.

LAMOILLE COUNTY RESIDENTIAL SALES

(Excluding Stowe)

Navigating the Market: While the market remains stable year over year, the lack of inventory might start to push additional home sales up through the end of the year, if interest rates remain level.  

Lamoille County Residential Sales: Jan-Jun 2017 (Excludes Stowe)

Under $200k $200k to $300k $300k to $400k Over $400k Total

197

21

40

6373

94

101127

46

102

69

3948

Sold 2016 Sold 2017 On Market

LAMOILLE COUNTY SAW A 17% DECREASE IN RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY.

2017 Mid Year Report July 1, 2017

LAMOILLE COUNTYLAND COMBINED Q1 & Q2Median: $62,000Average: $71,341Units Sold: 29Available Units: 167Months Supply: 35

*Above stats are for Lamoille County excluding Stowe.

Land sales were up again in the rest of Lamoille County, from 21 to 29, which was a 38% increase. Just as with home sales in this area, affordability plays a factor. The median sale price for a lot in these towns north of Stowe is as low as $62,000.

LAMOILLE COUNTY LAND SALES

(Excluding Stowe)

Navigating the Market: Although cheaper lots can be more attractive making sure it’s still suitable to build and resell remains significant.

Lamoille County Land Sold - 1st 6 Months 2017(Excludes Stowe)

Under $50K $50K to $100K $100K to $200K Over $200K Total

167

2825

5559

29

141113

21

2289

Sold 2016 Sold 2017 On Market

LAND SALES IN LAMOILLE COUNTY WERE UP BY 38%

2017 Mid Year Report July 1, 2017

WATERBURY RESIDENTIAL COMBINED Q1 & Q2Median: $286,500Average: $355,842Units Sold: 24Available Units: 38Months Supply: 4

Home sales in Waterbury saw a slight decrease of 4%, as compared to 2016. Compared to Stowe and the rest of Lamoille County, this area has been the most challenged to provide home buyers with choices. With only 38 homes currently on the market there, Waterbury is in need of more inventory. Similar to the rest of the homes in the area, the median and average sales prices both increased due to the lack of options.

WATERBURY RESIDENTIAL SALES

Navigating the Market: Waterbury acts like a more traditional market. Understanding the seasonality of that, and where the buyers are coming from, is ideal in selling your home.

Waterbury Residential Sales: Jan-Jun 2017

Under $200K $200K to $300K$300K to $400K Over $400K Total

38

14

19

23

24

8

3

11

2

25

3

6

11

5

Sold 2016 Sold 2017 On Market

2017 Mid Year Report July 1, 2017

There were 4 land sales in Waterbury, which is 3 more than last year. Market supply was up slightly, and both median and average prices were down.

WATERBURY LAND SALESWATERBURY LANDCOMBINED Q1 & Q2Median: $176,500Average: $153,250Units Sold: 4Available Units: 34Months Supply: 52

Navigating the Market: There are some really nice parcels of land in Waterbury that are ready for development, making sure you choose the right one to invest in will be key to a strong investment. Some factors to consider are location, view and cost to add infrastructure.

Waterbury Land Sales: Jan-Jun 2017

Under $100K $100K to $200K Over $200K Total

34

17

14

3 4

0

31 1010

Sold 2016 Sold 2017 On Market

LAND SALES IN WATERBURY INCREASED BY 300%, BUT

QUANTITY OF SALES REMAIN LOW