Post on 20-Jan-2016
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Storm-Scale NWP:Storm-Scale NWP:Scientific and Operational Scientific and Operational Challenges for the Next Challenges for the Next
DecadeDecade
Kelvin K. DroegemeierKelvin K. DroegemeierSchool of Meteorology and School of Meteorology and
Center for Analysis and Prediction of StormsCenter for Analysis and Prediction of StormsUniversity of OklahomaUniversity of Oklahoma
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COMET Faculty Course on HydrometeorologyCOMET Faculty Course on Hydrometeorology16 June 200016 June 2000
Boulder, ColoradoBoulder, Colorado
The Future of Operational NWPThe Future of Operational NWP
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10 km
3 km
1 km
20 km CONUS Ensembles
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10 km
3 km
3 km
3 km3 km
10 km
20 km CONUS Ensembles
The Future of Operational The Future of Operational NWPNWP
NEXRAD Doppler Radar DataNEXRAD Doppler Radar DataThe KEY ResourceThe KEY Resource
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New Concept: Abilene + New Concept: Abilene + NEXRADNEXRAD
NCEP
NCDC
OSF
AWC
TPC
FSL
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The Future of Operational NWP??The Future of Operational NWP??
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Meso-scale NWPMeso-scale NWP The prediction of the The prediction of the general characteristicsgeneral characteristics
associated with mesoscale weather associated with mesoscale weather phenomenaphenomena
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6-hour ARPS Forecast at 9 km resolutionWSR-88D CREF (02 UTC 30 Nov 1999)
Storm-scale NWPStorm-scale NWP The prediction of The prediction of explicit updraft/downdraftsexplicit updraft/downdrafts
and related features (e.g., gust fronts, meso-and related features (e.g., gust fronts, meso-cyclones)cyclones)
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NEXRAD Radar ObservationsARPS 90 min Forecast (3 km)
What Resolution is What Resolution is RequiredRequired
for Hydrologic for Hydrologic Applications?Applications?
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tst2_dat_flp_crp_crp_qr2z
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375 m Grid0 10 20 30 40 50 60
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tst2_dat_cdownscale_flp_crp_crp_qr2z
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Downscaledto 375 m
Downscaling?Downscaling?
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Surface Rainrate (8400)
wavenumber, k, (km-1)
0.01 0.1 1
PSD
(ar
bitr
ary
unit
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1e-1
1e+0
1e+1
1e+2
1e+3
1e+4
1e+5
1e+6
375 m modeled field375 m downscaled field
fitted line
Spatial Accuracy is Key -- Spatial Accuracy is Key -- EnsemblesEnsembles
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3 km ARPS Forecast Valid 00Z Monday, 16 June 1997
Amarillo
Fort Worth
Storm-Scale Ensembles in ActionStorm-Scale Ensembles in Action
5-Member, 3 km ARPS Ensemble
Amarillo
Fort Worth
5-Member, 3 km ARPS Ensemble
Amarillo
Fort Worth
Storm-Scale Ensembles in ActionStorm-Scale Ensembles in Action