Post on 10-May-2015
description
Storm in a teacup?
Adapting to the impacts of climate change in China
Thomas Tanner (IDS)
Declan Conway (University of East Anglia)
20th November 2008
“Climate change is a major global issue of common concern to the international community.
It is an issue involving both environment and development, but it is ultimately an issue of development.”
China’s National Climate Change ProgrammeJune 2007.
China and Climate Adaptation – Why the Interest?
Continental scale geography and population
Significant contributor to global emissions
Recent history of climate change
Rapid growth and socio-economic change
Existing environmental stresses
Increasing awareness and recognition of exposure and sensitivity;
- Floods 2007- Spring Festival 2008
Climate Change in China:Impacts and adaptation
Defra-DFID
China-UK collaboration
Prof Lin Erdalined@ami.ac.cn
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Declan Conway, UEAd.conway@uea.ac.uk
Achievements in Phase I (2001-04)
Climate Change Scenarios
Temperature to increase by 3~4 and rainfall to increase ℃10~12% by 2080s
2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5
Crop Yield Changes
Yields of rice, maize and wheat to change significantly in the next 80 years - without any adaptations
Phase II (2005-08)
Aims: Improvements to
national modeling of climate impacts
Ningxia case study: Integrated assessment for adaptation policy making
The integration approach
Change in total cereal production with different combinations of drivers
Only climate change: Without CO2, modest negative
impacts by 2050s
Change in total cereal production with different combinations of drivers
Climate change and CO2:
With CO2, production increases in all cases
Change in total cereal production with different combinations of drivers
Climate change and water:
Water is a significant limiting factor for future cereal production
All drivers together: Multiple effects; CO2
tends to counter-balance impacts, BUT…
PRECIS simulates upper limits of precipitation increase
Effects of extremes (and pests/diseases) underestimated
National analysis obscures areas with much larger changes (maize high sensitivity)
CO2 effect may not be so large/sustained
‘Optimistic’ results
Ningxia Autonomous Region – north-west ChinaSemi-arid to arid – high levels of rural poverty
Range of different farming systems
Research impacts and vulnerability in the agricultural sector
To help develop the capacity to plan for and respond to a changing climate in China and Ningxia
Design a regional adaptation framework and strategy for Ningxia
Awareness raising, dissemination and engagement
Ningxia regional Integrated Assessment – objectives
Adaptation guidelines for Ningxia
Technical report
User-friendly reports;
1. ‘adaptation framework’
2. how to apply the framework
3. adaptation strategy for the agricultural sector in Ningxia
An adaptation framework for NingxiaWorking with UKCIP
Adaptation as a process
3 Identify adaptation options
1 Assess climate risks2 Integrate development and adaptation goals
4 Prioritise options
New knowledge/research
6 Monitoring and evaluation
5 Implementation
High-level adaptation recommendations for agriculture and prioritisation
Consider establishment
of a cross-departmental group on adaptation within regional government
Raising awareness on climate change trends, potential impacts and adaptation activities across the region
High-level adaptation recommendations for agriculture and prioritisation
Good potential exists to integrate concerns within ongoing rural development programmes
www.china-climate-adapt.org
An applied approach to climate change impacts in the Chinese water sector
4 case studies of major development programmes
Team of water resources, economics and agriculture experts
Feeding into NDRC thinking and strategy on adaptation
Rationale
1. Climate change impacts affect the effectiveness of development investments
2. Pilot an adaptive approach based on adapting existing management systems
Adaptation:
Assessing how project objectives might be affected by future climate-related impacts,
and identifying options to manage impacts and exploit opportunities.
TimeCurrent End-date
Current
Project objective
Effect of climate change – failure to meet Objective
Project progress with climate change
Without climate change
Indi
cato
r
Change due to planned infrastructure, management changes etc within Development Project
Case StudiesProject Location
Flood control and land drainage management project
Huai River Basin
Integrated Water and environment management project
Hai River Basin
Water Conservation Plan Hai River Basin
Integrated Restoration Plan Shi Yan River Basin
Climate change impacts
Increased flooding
Increased reservoir inflow
Increased water deficit
Reduced catchment runoff
Case StudiesProject Adaptation options
Flood control and land drainage management project
1. Drainage canal pond network, raise land2. Raise runoff canals3. Improve flood and drought monitoring,
forecasting, warning and operating systems
Integrated Water and environment management project
1. Convert paddy areas 2. Interbasin water transfer3. Water reuse through sewage treatment
Water Conservation Plan1. Water pricing2. Drainage and irrigation
Integrated Restoration Plan 1. Water saving projects2. Inter-basin water transfer
What do the results tell us?
Challenges of traditional climate science
Existing ‘adaptation gap / deficit’
Adaptation as providing opportunities
Adaptive responses framed as both technological and social
Challenges: Climate Science
Uncertainty about the detail of CC remains high
– research to reduce uncertainties
– flexibility / adaptive management
Time scales beyond horizons of stakeholders
Other socio-economic changes more significant
Modelling impacts can become very complex and time consuming
Climate science
Seasonal forecasting / Decadal variability (causes of droughts)
Improved understanding of CO2-crop water use-land cover interactions
Better understanding of extremes (projections and impacts)
Methods:Impacts assessment – can be very technical/time
consuming – keep simple
Consultation essential – understanding current sensitivity, vulnerability and capacity to adapt
Beyond economic cost benefit analysis - MCA recognises other factors in decision making
Embed CC concerns within existing management systems and processes
No blueprints for adaptation process –invest time on communication and awareness raising
Opportunities:
Recent extremes may highlight current sensitivity and vulnerability (and effective responses)
Collaboration, ‘shared experiences’ worked well
National and international implications
Many existing options often already present – ‘no regrets’ [CC often exacerbates existing problems]
Entry points likely to deal with existing ‘adaptation gap’: better management of climate impacts
Project descriptionProject description
Identify climate-sensitive components
Identify climate-sensitive components
Problem analysisProblem analysis • Rapid strategic descriptive summary• Rapid strategic descriptive summary
• Identify climate-sensitive components• Identify relevant quantitative project objectives• Identify appropriate indicators
• Identify climate-sensitive components• Identify relevant quantitative project objectives• Identify appropriate indicators
• Descriptive overview of each Case Study• Descriptive overview of each Case Study
1
Phase Steps
Project descriptionProject description
Identify climate-sensitive components
Identify climate-sensitive components
Problem analysisProblem analysis
Semi-quantitative analysis of impactsSemi-quantitative analysis of impacts
Quantitative analysis of adaptation options
Quantitative analysis of adaptation options
• Rapid strategic descriptive summary• Rapid strategic descriptive summary
• Identify climate-sensitive components• Identify relevant quantitative project objectives• Identify appropriate indicators
• Identify climate-sensitive components• Identify relevant quantitative project objectives• Identify appropriate indicators
• Develop scenarios• Compare levels of stress in each scenario against project objectives – can it cope?• Assess need for adaptation
• Develop scenarios• Compare levels of stress in each scenario against project objectives – can it cope?• Assess need for adaptation
• Identify adaptation options• Estimate costs of each adaptation option• Estimate costs of damages (without adaptation)
• Identify adaptation options• Estimate costs of each adaptation option• Estimate costs of damages (without adaptation)
• Descriptive overview of each Case Study• Descriptive overview of each Case Study
1
2
Phase Steps
Project descriptionProject description
Identify climate-sensitive components
Identify climate-sensitive components
Problem analysisProblem analysis
Semi-quantitative analysis of impactsSemi-quantitative analysis of impacts
Quantitative analysis of adaptation options
Quantitative analysis of adaptation options
Multiple Criteria Analysis
Multiple Criteria Analysis
• Rapid strategic descriptive summary• Rapid strategic descriptive summary
• Identify climate-sensitive components• Identify relevant quantitative project objectives• Identify appropriate indicators
• Identify climate-sensitive components• Identify relevant quantitative project objectives• Identify appropriate indicators
• Develop scenarios• Compare levels of stress in each scenario against project objectives – can it cope?• Assess need for adaptation
• Develop scenarios• Compare levels of stress in each scenario against project objectives – can it cope?• Assess need for adaptation
• Identify adaptation options• Estimate costs of each adaptation option• Estimate costs of damages (without adaptation)
• Identify adaptation options• Estimate costs of each adaptation option• Estimate costs of damages (without adaptation)
• Evaluate preferred option (including ‘No changes currently needed’)
• Evaluate preferred option (including ‘No changes currently needed’)
• Descriptive overview of each Case Study• Descriptive overview of each Case Study
1
2
3
Phase Steps
Experiences from Testing in Water Sector in China
Raise awareness and promote action
China’s experience in managing climate impacts
Dealing with future uncertainty
Scenario, Timescale, Extreme events
Non-monetary aspects of economic evaluation
Tackling demand as well as supply issues
General Experiences and Lessonsfor Climate Screening in China
The suggested framework is flexible E.g. Applied to contrasting aspects of water sector
Not a finished process Ongoing cycle of learning Integration into planning is required
‘No change’ option Adaptation not always best option Need to avoid lock-in, maintain flexibility Ongoing monitoring of impacts and management
Possible Next Steps
Integration intoplanning and design
Further case study learning – other sectors
Improved applied
climate science – uncertainty