Stato e Futuro del settore Stato e Futuro del settore ICT in ItaliaICT in Italia

Roma, 13 dicembre 2005Roma, 13 dicembre 2005

Claudio Carrelli

L’innovazione nelle tecnologie di comunicazione elettronica

Research or Marketing Hat?Research or Marketing Hat?

Three HatsThree HatsTechnology Market Regulation

Which one is more Which one is more important?important?

An Old Chinese Game

• Fisso e’ lento

Mobile e’ rock

• La telefonia e’ lenta

Internet e’ rock

• La TV commerciale e’ lenta

La larga banda e’ rock

• La tecnologia non deve essere lenta

Le applicazioni sono super rock

““Mobile Broadband Mobile Broadband Internet”Internet”

The simplest and most effective The simplest and most effective combination of three words to describe combination of three words to describe the most promising developments of the the most promising developments of the

ICT world for the next yearsICT world for the next years

But do not under evaluate applications But do not under evaluate applications for new services!!for new services!!

SummarySummary

1. Technology and social impact

2. From cable vs radio to fix vs mobile

3. The digital revolution

4. Future trends and opportunities

1. Technology and 1. Technology and social impactsocial impact

Three basic questions Three basic questions on technologyon technology

• 1. Do we have “too much” technology?

• 2. When is a technology “mature”?

• 3. Can a technology be simply “transferred”?

1. Do we have too much 1. Do we have too much technology?technology?

• In 1816 Francis Rolands, proposed an electric telegraph to the Admiralty.

• The answer was negative because the war with France was considered over and the telegraph system (optical at the time) was in no need of improvement

Laser technologyLaser technology

• Invented in the seventies

• Immediately named as a “solution looking for a problem”

• Nowadays no HI-FI music, no letter printing, and no more long distance telephone calls without laser technology

The “Tron House”The “Tron House”

• The first “intelligent house”

• Completed in 1989 (Nishi Azabu, Japan)• Key concept: fusion of “humans”, “nature”

and “computers”

• A total of 380 computers, all of them interconnected via the “TRON Architecture”

• Dismantled in '94

What did we learn?What did we learn?

• Technology has not a value “per se”

• Technology is an enabler

• The value is in the application

• …the value is in its easy of use

Simplicity will win!Simplicity will win!

• Electric Telegraph was indeed developed and deployed, but, due to its inherent difficulties of use, it never met mass markets.

• Its successor, the telephone, with its easy use found the big success

2. When is a technology 2. When is a technology “mature”?“mature”?

19271927

What did we learn?What did we learn?

• Even when a technology is considered “mature” it may greatly evolve

• Its potential developments are still extraordinary and unforeseen

3. Can a technology be 3. Can a technology be simply moved?simply moved?

Horse vs horseless Horse vs horseless vehiclevehicle

What did we learn?What did we learn?

• Mobile internet should not be simply seen as a result of wire-line internet made wireless

• Nobody would read an entire book on a collection of “post it”

• ……a look to the recent past…

• The success of “i-mode” has clearly shown the value of innovation and creativity

Balancing technology Balancing technology and users needsand users needs

No! ICT innovation for No! ICT innovation for a better quality of life!!a better quality of life!!

Pure technology?Pure technology?

• The first TV remote control in 1950• Called “Lazy bones” and wire-line• ..Flashmatic, ..Spacecommand..1956• Its percentage on price exceeded 30%• How much would you save today to live

without it?• Yes, we can not live without it!

And that is only the And that is only the beginning!beginning!

Don’t we already talk to Don’t we already talk to things?things?

Two main comments on Two main comments on innovation and key to innovation and key to

successsuccess

Simplicity will winSimplicity will win

• The success of a simpler technology against a more complex one:

• Telephone over telegraph• IP and internet vs ISDN • SMS vs ISDN D-channel• i-mode vs WAP• Blue-tooth vs DECT• ….and what about Wi-Fi and Wi-Max?

Local first, networking Local first, networking followsfollows

• Stereo records and stereo broadcast

• Movies and TV

• Photo and telephoto

• DVD ... HDTV

• Multimedia terminal equipment, … broadband communication

• Intelligent housewares ….networked home• RFID….. Automated logistics

……and mobility will and mobility will follow!!follow!!

……can we live without a can we live without a cellular phone?cellular phone?

The myth of Broadband The myth of Broadband and the value of the and the value of the

MbyteMbyte

“Life begins at 100 Mbit/s”

Peter Cochrane, ConceptLabs

What about social What about social impact?impact?

Is BB “la Is BB “la mode”?mode”?

A simple access for river explorationA simple access for river exploration

A more powerful one for new discoveriesA more powerful one for new discoveries

A false problemA false problem

• How much transmission capacity (Bandwidth) will customers require?

• It is the available capacity and associated services that will condition the real use

Do we know Do we know how many litres of how many litres of water we need for a water we need for a

shower?shower?

First example from the First example from the press are quite well press are quite well

knownknown • News and video clips• History on 50 pictures• Film trailer • Watch free video• Blog watch• Watch/listen

Technology is here!Technology is here!

• BB offer is growing and will continue to grow

• Let us grasp the opportunities• Simplicity is the first requirement• Aim to a target: a better quality of life