- 1. Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities for
Synchrotrons and Remote Instrumentation Bill St. Arnaud CANARIE Inc
www.canarie.ca [email_address] Unless otherwise noted all material
in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed
without prior permission of the author
2. Climate Forecasts MIT
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- MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2C
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- 11C increase in Northern Canada
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http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=990
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- Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6C cooler than
today
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- Most of Canada was under 2-3 km ice
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- With BAU we are talking about 5-6C change in temperature in the
opposite direction in less than 80 Years
3. 2008 second warmest year September 2009 warmest ever 4.
- 80/50 rule 80% reduction in CO2 by 2050
- (Commitment made by G8 countries)
j 15 - 20tons/person 1ton/person 2008 2050 ? 2100 2tons/person
Source: Stern 2008 Our Challenge 5. ICT and Cyber-infrastructure
and CO2 emissions*
- It is estimated that the ICT industry alone produces CO2
emissions that is equivalent to the carbon output of the entire
aviation industry.
- ICT emissions growth fastest of any sector in society, doubling
about every 4 years
- One small computer server generates as much carbon dioxide as a
SUV with a fuel efficiency of 15 miles per gallon
- Typical university produces 200,000 500,000 metric tons CO2 per
year of which 100,000 300,000 tons is from Cyber-infrastructure and
ICT
- Back of envelope estimates suggests Higher Ed in US produce
5-10% of all emissions
*An Inefficient Tuth:
http://www.globalactionplan.org.uk/event_detail.aspx?eid=2696e0e0-28fe-4121-bd36-3670c02eda49
6 6. Growth Projections Data Centers
- Half of ICT consumption is data centers
- By 2010, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or
outsource applications to another facility.*
- During the next 5 years, 90% of all companies will experience
some kind of power disruption. In that same period one in four
companies will experience a significant business disruption*
- Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020
(TV Telecom)
- Universities and major research facilities major consumers of
power
Source:Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge 7.
Impact on Big Instruments and CI
- Already in the UK Cyber-infrastructure is the largest emitter
of CO2
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1209430/Weather-supercomputer-used-predict-climate-change-Britains-worst-polluters.html
- Big science instruments like accelerators and synchrotrons are
major energy consumers and already schedule experiments on a
seasonal basis
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- E.g. CERN runs experiments only in summer time
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- E.g. FERMI runs experiments only in winter
- CERN is in negotiations with Norway to relocate data facilities
to that country
- Big science face huge challenge with increase cost of power and
CO2 emissions
8.
- Waxman-Markey H.R. 2454 passes the House in July 2009
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- Average increasein electricity costs for businesses and
institutions will be 60% with cap and trade
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- Organizations that use electricity from coal fired power plants
will see significantly higher costs (by as much as 3 times current
prices)
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- 30% of electricity will come from non carbon sources
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- Utilities will be required to spend 16% revenues on energy
reduction strategies
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- If you emit above your cap you are required to purchase offsets
at $11-$15 per ton in 2012 and roughly double in price by
2025.
- Kerry-Boxer Clean Energy Jobs & American Power Act
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- More aggressive CO2 reduction targets then Waxman-Markey (20%
by 2020 over 2005, 80% by 2050).
- EPA has proposed a rule that requires mandatory reporting of
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from larges sources in the United
States. that emit 25,000 metric tons or more
Federal Climate Legislation 9. Carbon Footprint by state 10.
State GHG Targets 2009 SOURCE:Pew Center on Global Climate Change,
Climate101-State Actions, January 2009 42% of States Have Existing
GHG Reduction Targets 11. GHG Regulation in British Columbia
- Bill 44-2007 was introduced in 2007 and enacted into law in
2008.The law is known as the Greenhouse Gas Reductions Target
Act.
- The Act establishes greenhouse gas emission target levels for
the Province.
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- 2020 BC GHG will be 33% less than 2007.
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- 2050 BC GHG will be 80% less than 2007.
- Bill mandates that by 2010 each public sector organization must
be carbon neutral.
- If a public sector organization can not achieve carbon
neutrality then they are required to purchase offsets at
$24/ton
SOURCE:Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report 2007, Ministry of
Environment, Victoria, British Columbia, July 2009 Source: Jerry
Sheehan UCSD 12. The Cost of Regulation:The University of British
Columbia SOURCE:UBC Sustainability Office, August 2009
SOURCE:http://climateaction.ubc.ca/category/emission-sources SOURCE
:UBC Climate Action Plan, GHG 2006 Inventory Source: Jerry Sheehan
UCSD UBC Greenhouse Gas Liability 2010-2012 2010 2011 2012 Carbon
Offset $1,602,750 $1,602,750 $1,602,750 Carbon Tax $1,179,940
$1,474,925 $1,769,910 Total $2,782,690 $3,077,675 $3,372,660 13.
The Falsehood of Energy Efficiency
- Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused
on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes
- But growth in ICT deployment of equipment and services is
outstripping any gains made in efficiency
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- Which is likely to accelerate as ICT is used to support
abatement in other fields such as smart homes, smart buildings,
smart grids etc
- Also greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy
consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore
stimulates demand
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- Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox aka rebound
effect)
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- In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy
efficiency laws (CAF) which mandate minimum mileage for cars, home
insulation and appliances
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- Net effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or
cooling home, and electricity required for appliances
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- Consumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and
appliances
14.
- Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant
transmission line losses
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- Demand for green power within cities expected to grow
dramatically
- CIfacilitiesDONT NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES
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- Remote instrumentation will be critical
- But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical
to connect to electrical grid.
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- Can be easily reached by an optical network
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- Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in
wheeling power
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- Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus
carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable
energy site
- CI is only sector ideally suited to relocate to renewable
energy sites
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- Remote instrumentation will be critical
Building a zero carbon CI infrastructure 15. MIT to build zero
carbon data center in Holyoke MA
- The data center will be managed and funded by the four main
partners in the facility: theMassachusetts Institute of Technology
,Cisco Systems , theUniversity of MassachusettsandEMC .
- It will be a high-performance computing environment that will
help expand the research and development capabilities of the
companies and schools in Holyoke
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http://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/06/11/cisco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center
16. Many examples already Hydro-electric powered data centers
Data Islandia Digital Data Archive ASIO solar powered data centers
Wind powered data centers Ecotricity in UK builds windmills at data
center locations with no capital cost to user 17. Grand Challenge
Building robust CI services using renewable energy only
- 30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources
- How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy
source is unreliable?
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- Ebbing wind or setting sun
- Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are
not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks
- Need new network architectures and business models to ensure
reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data
sets around the world to sites that have available power
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- Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures
to quickly move jobs and data sets from site to site
18. CANARIE Green-IT Pilot
- $3m allocation for Green cyber-infrastructure-IT pilot
testbed
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- Technical viability and usability for relocating computers to
zero carbon data centers and follow the sun/follow the wind
network
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- Business case viability of offering carbon offsets (and or
equivalent in services) to IT departments and university
researchers who reduce their carbon footprint by relocating
computers and instrumentation to zero carbon data centers
- International partnership with possible zero carbon nodes using
virtual router/computers in Spain, Ireland, California, Australia,
British Columbia, Ottawa, Quebec and Nova Scotia
25 19. Economic benefits of follow the wind/sun
architectures
- Cost- and Energy-Aware Load Distribution Across Data
Centers
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- http://www.cs.rutgers.edu/~ricardob/papers/hotpower09.pdf
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- Green data centers can decrease brown energy consumption by 35%
by leveraging the green data centers at only a 3% cost
increase
- Cutting the Electric Bill for Internet-Scale Systems
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- Companies can shift computing power to a data center in a
location where its an off-peak time of the day and energy prices
are low
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- Cassatt a product that dynamically shifts loads to find the
cheapest energy prices
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- 45% maximum savings in energy costs
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- http://ccr.sigcomm.org/online/files/p123.pdf
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http://earth2tech.com/2009/08/19/how-data-centers-can-follow-energy-prices-to-save-millions/
- Computing for the future of the planet
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- http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/dtg/~ah12/
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http://earth2tech.com/2008/07/25/data-centers-will-follow-the-sun-and-chase-the-wind
20.
- Business plan for a Canada-California Consortium for a Zero
carbon Internet;
- Regroup researchers in computer science, electrical &
computer engineering, sociology, business and economics;
- Create an R&D environment and identify funding to support
the consortium in:
University R&D: CCSIP
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- University-based living ICT laboratories test beds that
demonstrate how ICT can mitigate GHG;
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- Events to raise the awareness of the benefits of the
application of ICT for carbon minimization; and
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- Implement an international repository for data and best
practices related to ICTs carbon footprint and applications to
reduce GHG.
21. What are carbon offsets?
- Many claims of energy savings can only be proven through
rigorous process ofcarbon offsets(ISO 14064)
- Companies or individuals buy carbon offsets from projects that
remove or reduce carbon
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- Planting trees, building hydro dams, installing energy
efficient processes, etc
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- Regulated markets Alberta, BC , Europe and New England
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- Voluntary markets Air Canada, Chicago, etc
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- Carbon buying and selling is done through registries or
exchanges
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- Pacific Carbon Trust, Montreal Carbon exchange, REGI
- In regulated marketsall big emitters such as power plants,
steel mills,universities , etc must purchase permits based on cap
and trade
22. The Carbon Economy
- $500 billion - Value of low-carbon energy markets by 2050
- $100 billion - Demand for projects generating GHG missions
credits by 2030
- Global carbon market expected to grow 58% this year to $92
billion
- Carbon market could be worth billions for telecoms &
IT
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- US market estimated at $700 billion
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http://telephonyonline.com/global/news/carbon-trade-arnaud-0626/
- Obamas cap and trade (Waxman-Markey) bill will force emitters
to spend $1.25 on carbon offsets for every $1.00 on emission
permits at $ 1billion per year
Source: ClimateCheck 20 23. Do your carbon inventory NOW!!
- You can not earn credits until you do an inventory and
calculate baseline emissions
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- www.ghginstitute.orgprovides eTraining
- Next year carbon cap price will be $100 per ton in Europe
- At European cap price the cost of GHG emission could be as much
$10 - $50 million per year for university in the next decade
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- A lot depends on details of Obamas cap and trade
- Conversely university could earn $10 - $50 million per year if
a university is zero carbon
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- No revenue potential if university is carbon neutral
19 24. Policy approaches to reducing CO2
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- Politically difficult to sell
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- Useful for big emitters like power companies
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- Addresses only supply side of CO2
- Carbon Neutrality imposed by law
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- Growing in popularity especially as protests over gas tax
escalates
- But there may be an additional approach.
28 25. Carbon Rewards rather carbon taxes gCommerce
- Although carbon taxes are revenue neutral, they payee rarely
sees any direct benefit
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- No incentive other than higher cost to reduce footprint
- Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon
emissions, can we reward them for reducing their carbon
emissions?
- Carbon rewards can be virtual products delivered over broadband
networks such movies, books, education, health services,
collarboartive education and research technologies etc
- Carbon reward can also be free ICT services (with low carbon
footprint) such as Internet, cellphone, fiber to the home, etc
29 26. Virtualization and De-materialization Source: European
Commission Joint Research Centre, The Future Impact of ICTs on
Environmental Sustainability, August 2004 Direct replacement of
physical goods 10% - 20% impact 27. Virtualization is key
- Movies and music delivered over Internet
- In many homes electronic devices consume more power than
traditional appliances
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- http://www.iea.org/journalists/headlines.asp
MITs Sixth sense 28. Digital vs Traditional appliances 29. Case
Western pilot with Kindle DX
- One pound of printer paper generates 4 pounds of CO2
- One pound of newspaper produces 3 pounds of CO2
- One pound of textbooks produces 5 pounds of CO2
- Babcock school of Management textbooks for 160 students alone
produces 45 Tons CO2
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http://www.stewartmarion.com/carbon-footprint/html/carbon-footprint-stuff.html
30. Free Wifi on Buses
- Theres a school bus service called The Green Bus in Birmingham,
UK which operates double-decker, low-carbon emissions buses that
carry over 1400 kids to school every day (saving over 2000 car
journeys).
- In addition to encouraging kids to play peer-to-peer games, the
access points allow the bus company to monitor where the buses are
in the city in real time. Parents as well as staff can follow the
progress of any bus via Google maps.
- Business bus service in San Francisco offersoffice on the move
free wifi, femto cell service etc
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http://www.muniwireless.com/2009/01/14/school-kids-enjoy-wi-fi-on-green-bus/
32 31. Carbon Reward Strategy for last mile infrastructure
- Provide free high speed Internet and fiber to the home with
resale of electrical and gas power(ESCOs)
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http://www.newamerica.net/files/HomesWithTails_wu_slater.pdf
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- Pilots in Cleveland, Switzerland, Ottawa, etc
- Customer pays a premium on their gas and electric bill
- Customers encouraged to save money through reduced energy
consumption and reduced carbon output
- Customer NOT penalized if they reduce energy consumption
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- May end up paying substantially less then they do now for gas +
electricity + broadband + telephone + cable
- Network operator gets guaranteed revenue based on energy
consumption rather than fickle triple play
33 32. Final remarks
- The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon
emissions
- We must start addressing climate change now not in 2050 or
2020
- 80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change
everything we do including ICT and networks
- Huge potential for innovation for ICT sector because 30% of
energy must come from renewable sources
33. Thank you
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- Send e-mail to bill.st.arnaud@canarie.ca
- http://green-broadband.blogspot.com
- http://free-fiber-to-the-home.blogspot.com/