Post on 08-Jan-2016
description
Special Special Winter Weather Winter Weather
BriefingBriefing2/3/20112/3/2011slides:slides:
www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefingwww.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefingKeith StellmanKeith Stellman
National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
Overview Tonight/FridayTonight/Friday
Arctic air in place across the regionArctic air in place across the region Upper level system moves in and draws moisture in Upper level system moves in and draws moisture in
from the gulf over the cold air.from the gulf over the cold air. Accumulations of 1-3 inches snow/minor sleet Accumulations of 1-3 inches snow/minor sleet
accumulations possible I-20 Corridor and south accumulations possible I-20 Corridor and south (Winter Weather Advisory area) (Winter Weather Advisory area) Tyler>Longview>Shreveport>Magnolia>El Dorado Tyler>Longview>Shreveport>Magnolia>El Dorado and points south. and points south.
Ice accumulations of 0.25-0.50 inches possible…Ice accumulations of 0.25-0.50 inches possible…(Winter Storm Warning area) Lufkin-(Winter Storm Warning area) Lufkin->Nacogdoches>Natchitoches->Nacogdoches>Natchitoches->Winnfield>Monroe>Columbia>Colfax>Jena>Winnfield>Monroe>Columbia>Colfax>Jena
Beginning this evening 6 pm ending by 6 pm Friday. Beginning this evening 6 pm ending by 6 pm Friday. (Winter precipitation north of the Winter Storm (Winter precipitation north of the Winter Storm Warning area may begin a little later than 6 pm this Warning area may begin a little later than 6 pm this evening.) evening.)
National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
Big PictureBig Picture
National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
TodaTodayy
TngtTngt
FridFridayay
Strong Upper Level
Low Pressure Area
HH
Regional ViewRegional View
Snow
Pack
Temperatures ThursdayTemperatures ThursdayWind Chills Highs
Winter Storm Winter Storm Warning/Advisory (6 pm Warning/Advisory (6 pm this evening through 6 this evening through 6
pm Fridaypm Friday Winter Winter
Precipitation Precipitation expected expected across the across the entire Four entire Four State Region. State Region.
Warning areas Warning areas in blue. in blue.
Advisory areas Advisory areas in purple.in purple.
Sleet/snow/Freezing rain Sleet/snow/Freezing rain DilemmaDilemma
Temperature profile at 6 AM Friday - Temperature profile at 6 AM Friday - ShreveportShreveport
Free
zing
line
High Res High Res models models suggest all suggest all snow in snow in NW LA NW LA and and portions of portions of East TexasEast Texas
Warm Warm nose not nose not as as prevalent prevalent as the air as the air is too cold is too cold to startto start
Height
Surface Tempeatures 25-28
Sleet/snow/Freezing rain Sleet/snow/Freezing rain DilemmaDilemma
Temperature profile at 6 AM Friday - Temperature profile at 6 AM Friday - MonroeMonroe
Free
zing
line
High Res High Res models models suggest all suggest all snow in snow in NW LA NW LA and and portions of portions of East TexasEast Texas
Warm Warm nose not nose not as as prevalent prevalent as the air as the air is too cold is too cold to startto start
Height
Surface Tempeatures 27-30
Sleet/snow/Freezing rain Sleet/snow/Freezing rain DilemmaDilemma
Temperature profile at 6 AM Friday - Temperature profile at 6 AM Friday - MonroeMonroe
Free
zing
line
Warm Warm Nose Nose appears appears and looks and looks deep deep enough to enough to melt the melt the snowsnow
Could Could either be either be sleet or sleet or freezing freezing rainrain
Lufkin -> Lufkin -> NatchitocNatchitoches -hes ->Columbia>Columbia
Height
Surface Tempeatures 28-31
Model Forecast 3 AM Model Forecast 3 AM FridayFriday
Snow to Sleet/Freezing Rain Line
• Models Models waver on waver on the mix the mix line. line.
• Blue Blue barbs barbs indicate indicate south south winds winds transporttransporting ing moisture moisture northnorth
Total Liquid Equivalent (precip Total Liquid Equivalent (precip amounts) amounts)
High Res ModelHigh Res Model
Model has Model has been been trending trending toward toward higher higher amounts in amounts in the the SoutheasterSoutheastern Parishes n Parishes (0.50-1.00”) (0.50-1.00”)
Sabine, Sabine, NatchitocheNatchitoches, Grant, s, Grant, Winn, La Winn, La Salle, Salle, CaldwellCaldwell
Total Liquid Equivalent (precip Total Liquid Equivalent (precip amounts) amounts)
Model Concensus (SREF)Model Concensus (SREF)
This blend This blend shows the shows the highest highest swath in the swath in the Southeast Southeast and south and south (0.50-1.00”) (0.50-1.00”)
Sabine, Sabine, NatchitocheNatchitoches, Grant, s, Grant, Winn, La Winn, La Salle, Salle, CaldwellCaldwell
The 2” lineThe 2” line
Overall Forecast Overall Forecast
Thu PM/FridayThu PM/FridayLows
Highs
ImpactsImpacts Swath of 1”-4” of snow Swath of 1”-4” of snow south of a Jacksonville-south of a Jacksonville->Marshall->Magnolia >Marshall->Magnolia lineline
Sleet/Snow/Freezing Sleet/Snow/Freezing Rain along a Lufkin -Rain along a Lufkin ->Natchitoches->Natchitoches->Columbia Line>Columbia Line
Lower visibilitiesLower visibilities
Ground temps cold…precip Ground temps cold…precip will stick to will stick to bridges/overpasses and bridges/overpasses and main roadwaysmain roadways
Cold temperatures Cold temperatures through Saturday AM to through Saturday AM to keep it aroundkeep it around
If Freezing rain If Freezing rain materializes, could materializes, could be talking about be talking about 0.25-0.75” in the 0.25-0.75” in the southeast…possibly southeast…possibly higher in Grant/La higher in Grant/La Salle/NatchitochesSalle/Natchitoches
Over 0.50” would Over 0.50” would cause widespread cause widespread Power outagesPower outages
Instant freeze on all Instant freeze on all surfaces with temps surfaces with temps in the 20sin the 20s
NEXT CONFERENCE CALL:
Thursday 10 AM Thursday 10 AM www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briewww.srh.noaa.gov/shv/brie
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National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana