Post on 02-Feb-2021
South Asia Heat Trends and the State of Science in Forecasting/Applications
SC Bhan, Naresh Kumar, Anup Kumar Srivastava and DilipMavalankar
scbhan@yahoo.com, sc.bhan@imd.gov.in
First Global Forum on Heat and Health
Hong Kong17-20 December, 2018
Panel Discussion on Regional Heat issues
Summer Temperatures in the RegionStarts building up from Sri Lanka and the south & central parts of India in March AND
Peaks towards end of May/early June
March 16
June 16
April 16 May16
July 16 July 16 Minimum• Some parts, particularly northwest India and south Pakistan, could remain quite
warm into entire June/ early July in case of late onset OR weak monsoon• Warm Nights and High Humidity are added issue in July in NWI & S Pak
Observed Trends• Annual Tmean Trends
(C/100 yrs) Most Areas Warming
• A few cooling pockets For how long ?
INDIA Summer Tmean Trend 0.63C/100 yrsAll of last 20 yrs warmer
14 El Nino- 9 warmer12 La Nina- 3 warmer
HW days India hot weather season (April-June).
Mean Annual Temp Nepal Annual T max/min DhakaMore Warming in Southern Parts
Mean Monthly Tmax Anomalies. Most warmer than avg. Jan-Feb more marked.
Warmer Post Monsoon & Winters = Prolonged & Early Heat Load AND Stress on Agriculture and on Water resources which
have implications for Heat Management issues Trends in heat waveaffected area in Pakistan
HEAT WAVE OVER INDIA• In spells of 5 to 6 days (recorded up to 15 days in some cases).
Severe HW 2-3 days (upto 7 days).• Originate in April over Central India due to high insolation and
stable atmosphere in absence of thunderstorm activity.• Maximum frequency in May. HWs developing over NW
India/Pak and are advected east & south by prevailing NW’lywinds. Sustained N’wlies result in HW upto Bangladesh.
Typical Low Level flow Associated with HW up to east coast
20-May-15
22-May-15
24-May-15
26-May-15
28-May-15
30-May-15
A prolonged Spell from 20-30 May, 2015
Prolonged Heat Stress during the day
Sudden Increase in Temperature due to onset of w’lies over east coast
Heat Wave 2015Sub-Div
44° C & above 46 ° C & above
Days Period Days PeriodHRY 9 21-29 2 23,25W UP 9 21-29 2 25-26E UP 9 21-29 8 21-27 & 29
W. Raj 8 21-27 & 30 4 23-25 & 27
E. Raj 11 20-30 4 22, 25-27West MP 11 20-30 2 20 & 29
East MP 10 21-30 1 29
Odish 10 20-29 5 22-27Jhkd 9 21-29 6 22-27Chht 11 20-30 5 25-29Tel 11 20-30 11 20-30
C AP 9 20-27 & 30 7 21-27Coincidences with droughts are
conflicting
चार्ट1
421474214742147421474214742147
421484214842148421484214842148
421494214942149421494214942149
421504215042150421504215042150
3 UTC
6 UTC
9 UTC
12 UTC
15 UTC
Max
Temperature (°C)
Temperature - Ramagundam
37
41.8
44.4
44
38.6
46.1
36.6
40.6
43.8
43.6
37.6
44.8
36.6
40.6
43.6
42
39.6
44.8
37
41.6
41.8
43.4
38
44.5
Sheet1
Temp
DelhiAjmerGwaliorjabalpur
23-May24-May25-May26-May232425262324252623242526
3 UTC353435.235.43323233.232.6373737.237.63343534.434.4
6 UTC4141.441.24163936.237.236.6414141.242.2640404440
9 UTC4443.244.644.2942.440.440.8414443.44444.494341.842.642
12 UTC434143.44312424140.440.44344.243.443124239.240.230
15 UTC36.83639.835.61538.637.637.837.234.4403536.615363637.432
Max44.543.545.545max43.241.441.641.2max44.944.944.845.9max43.64243.143
RH23242526232425262324252623242526
332423537343454142339444747324384141
624242626624362035636393835614362727
91020201891717202293033302998241928
1217281818121213171812302929311210282756
1534371934152022212215473244401522302948
Temp
OngoleRamagundamNagpur
232425262324252623242526
335.735.235.83733736.636.63733836.436.636.8
640.840.839.842641.840.640.641.6643424344.2
943.644.243.243.6944.443.843.641.894544.645.645
1242.842.843.642124443.64243.4124339.24336.4
1536.23838.8361538.637.639.63815383336.434.8
Max44.344.443.744.5Max46.144.844.844.5Max45.144.945.846.2
RH
OngoleNagpur
232425262324252623242526
348484750338354541327464750
634333534630353839618353433
927202531924272932924282315
122722243112202338281216362833
153536334315253734401522413536
Sheet1
3 UTC
6 UTC
9 UTC
12 UTC
15 UTC
Max
Temperature (°C)
Temperature - Gwalior
Sheet2
3 UTC
6 UTC
9 UTC
12 UTC
15 UTC
Max
Temperature (°C)
Temperature - Ajmer
Sheet3
3 UTC
6 UTC
9 UTC
12 UTC
15 UTC
Max
Temperature (°C)
Temperature - Delhi (Safdarjung)
पत्रक1
3 UTC
6 UTC
9 UTC
12 UTC
15 UTC
Max
Temperature (°C)
Temperature - Jabalpur
3 UTC
6 UTC
9 UTC
12 UTC
15 UTC
Max
Temperature (°C)
Temperature - Nagpur
3 UTC
6 UTC
9 UTC
12 UTC
15 UTC
Max
Temperature (°C)
Temperature - Ramagundam
3 UTC
6 UTC
9 UTC
12 UTC
15 UTC
Max
Temperature (°C)
Temperature - Ongole
3 UTC
6 UTC
9 UTC
12 UTC
15 UTC
Relative umidity (%)
RH - Delhi (Safdarjung)
3 UTC
6 UTC
9 UTC
12 UTC
15 UTC
Relative Humidity (%)
RH - Gwalior
3 UTC
6 UTC
9 UTC
12 UTC
15 UTC
Relative Humidity (%)
RH - Ajmer
3 UTC
6 UTC
9 UTC
12 UTC
15 UTC
Relative Humidity (%)
RH - Jabalpur
3 UTC
6 UTC
9 UTC
12 UTC
15 UTC
Relative Humidity (%)
RH - Nagpur
3 UTC
6 UTC
9 UTC
12 UTC
15 UTC
Relative Humidity (%)
RH - Ramagundam
3 UTC
6 UTC
9 UTC
12 UTC
15 UTC
Relative Humidity (%)
RH - Ongole
Temp
DelhiAjmerGwaliorjabalpur
42147421484214942150232425262324252623242526
33532344235.23535.4373323233.232.6373737.237.63343534.434.4
6412441.42441.226412663936.237.236.6414141.242.2640404440
944.81043.22044.62044.218942.440.440.8414443.44444.494341.842.642
124317412843.418431812424140.440.44344.243.443124239.240.230
1536.834363739.81935.6341538.637.637.837.234.4403536.615363637.432
Max44.543.545.545max43.241.441.641.2max44.944.944.845.9max43.64243.143
RH23242526232425262324252623242526
332423537343454142339444747324384141
624242626624362035636393835614362727
91020201891717202293033302998241928
1217281818121213171812302929311210282756
1534371934152022212215473244401522302948
Temp
OngoleRamagundamNagpur
232425262324252623242526
335.735.235.83733736.636.63733836.436.636.8
640.840.839.842641.840.640.641.6643424344.2
943.644.243.243.6944.443.843.641.894544.645.645
1242.842.843.642124443.64243.4124339.24336.4
1536.23838.8361538.637.639.63815383336.434.8
Max44.344.443.744.5Max46.144.844.844.5Max45.144.945.846.2
RH
OngoleNagpur
232425262324252623242526
348484750338354541327464750
634333534630353839618353433
927202531924272932924282315
122722243112202338281216362833
153536334315253734401522413536
Delhi
23-May242526
temprhtemprhtemprhtemprh
3 UTC3532344235.23535.437
6 UTC412441.42441.2264126
9 UTC441043.22044.62044.218
12 UTC4317412843.4184318
15 UTC36.834363739.81935.634
Max44.543.545.545
3 UTC
6 UTC
9 UTC
12 UTC
15 UTC
Max
Sept IC Oct IC
Seasonal Outlooks & Forecast Skills
July IC August IC
RCC, Pune: Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia every month for next 4 months(Current and FC ENSO, precipitation & temp anomalies FC Afg, B. Desh, Bhutan, India, Myn,Nepal, Pak &S. Lanka. The spatial pattern of Anomalies are reasonably well captured.
FAR MR CSI PODD1 D2 D3 D1 D2 D3 D1 D2 D3 D1 D2 D3
2017 .07 .06 .02 .33 .51 .77 .40 .32 .19 .67 .49 .23
2018 .03 .04 .02 .09 .28 .52 .54 .40 .32 .91 .72 .48
Mean Temp Anomaly Observations and FC for December, 2016 The outlooks in India are found to be useful in Heat Wave Mgt. India
D-5 warning accuracy in 2018 ishigher than D-3 accuracy of 2017 .The improvement in D-3 of 2018warning is more than 100% compareto D-3 of 2017.POD
MRCSI
REFERENCES/ACKNOWLEDGEMENTNajeebullah Khan, Shamsuddin Shahid, Tarmizi Ismail, Kamal Ahmed and Nadeem Nawaz
(2018). Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1605-2
IMD (2018). Annual Climate Summary- 2017. http://rcc.imdpune.gov.in/Products.htmlPai D.S, Srivastava, A.K. and Nair, S.A. (2017). In M.R. Nair and S. Nayak (eds.), “Observed
Climate Variability and Change over the Indian Region”. Springer Geology, DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-2531-0_4
Mossammat Ayesha Khatun, Md. Bazlur Rashid and Hans Olav Hygen. (2016). Climate of Bangladesh. Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Met Report No. 08/2016
Sagar Dahal. 2007. Climatic Determinants in Malaria and Kala-azar in Nepal. ProceedingReport of National Workshop on “Climate Change and Human Health: Potential Impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation in Nepal” held at Kathmandu, Nepal. December 19- 21, 2007
THANKS
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1605-2http://rcc.imdpune.gov.in/Products.html
South Asia Heat Trends and the State of Science in Forecasting/Applications��SC Bhan, Naresh Kumar, Anup Kumar Srivastava and Dilip Mavalankar��scbhan@yahoo.com, sc.bhan@imd.gov.in�Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Heat Wave over IndiaSlide Number 5Seasonal Outlooks & Forecast SkillsReferences/Acknowledgement