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Sources and Consequences of Minnesota’s Air Pollution

Mary Jean Fenske, MPCA Air PolicySupervisor October 2013

Key Messages

• Standards becoming more stringent as we learn of health effects at lower concentrations

• Urban air is of particular concern

• Main sources are combustion & non-point

• Our ability to do anything about it is limited using our existing regulatory structure

• We need to work differently – engage new partners, and leverage current relationships

2

Air Pollution in Minnesota

• Consequences of air pollution

• Health & Environmental

• Economic

• Trends and sources of air pollution

• Actions

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Particulates and Ozone: Pyramid of Overall Health Risks

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Death

Respiratory/ cardiovascular

hosp admissions Asthma emergency

room visits

Acute respiratory symptoms

Asthma attacks, medication use

Work loss days, school absences

Examples of Localized Risks

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Residential Wood Smoke

Near Roadway

Other Air Pollution Concerns

6

• Air Alerts • Visibility

• Deposition • Other Environmental

Concerns

Air Quality Standards

• EPA uses its Clean Air Act authority to set National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)

• NAAQS set for six pollutants

• Carbon monoxide, lead, NOX, SO2, ozone and particulate matter (PM2.5)

• NAAQS reviewed for health protection - on five year schedule

• Attainment refers to meeting the standards

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Trends in Key Pollutants

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50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Perc

ent o

f fed

eral

sta

ndar

d

O3 8-HR PM2.5 Annual PM2.5 24-HR Standard

Ozone Compared to Standard

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67 62

55

61

50

67

59 64

60 63 62 61

64 62 63

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ozo

ne C

once

ntra

tion

(ppb

)

2010-2012 Standard

Daily PM2.5 Compared to Standard

10

25 23

17

25 25 25 24 25

28 27

15

0

10

20

30

40

Fine

Par

ticle

Con

cent

ratio

n (µ

g/m

3)

2008-2010 2009-2011 2010-2012 Standard

Annual PM2.5 Compared to Standard

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9 8.5

5.5

9 9 8.6 8.5 8.8 9.7

9.1

5.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Fine

Par

ticle

Con

cent

ratio

n (µ

g/m

3)

2008-2010 2009-2011 2010-2012 Standard

AQI and Air Quality Alert Days in the Twin Cities

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Consequences of Nonattainment

• More permitting requirements, more monitoring and modeling, State Implementation Plan

• More red tape

• Adverse health impacts (ozone, PM)

• Economic consequences – up to $240 million/yr

Health Impacts of Current Pollution in Minnesota: Premature Mortality

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3800

61 0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

PM2.5 Ozone

Inci

dent

s

Annual Premature Mortality Estimates in Minnesota

PM2.5 $34

billion

Ozone $450

million

Annual Economic Value of Premature Mortality

Current Pollution in Minnesota: Nonfatal Health Impacts

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$170 million

$96 million

$39 million

$17 million $10 million $11.5 million

$22 million

$8.7 million

$12 million

$57,000 $-

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

$140,000,000

$160,000,000

$180,000,000

Nonfatal Heart Attacks

Acute Respiratory Symptoms

Work Loss Days

Cardiovascular Hosp

Admissions

Respiratory Hosp

Admissions

School Loss Days

Other Health Impacts

Total Annual Value ≈ $400 million

PM2.5 Ozone

Where Do Fine Particles Come From?

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19

Point Source Pollutants have seen Significant Declines

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VOC Emission Trends

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Emis

sion

s (t

ons)

Point Area Onroad mobile Non-road equpiment

NOx Emission Trends

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Emis

sons

(ton

s)

Point Area Onroad mobile Non-road equpiment

Statewide Residential Wood Burned

Statewide Residential Wood Burned

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Residential Wood in the Metro

Actions

• Clean Air Dialogue

• Stakeholder process to clarify the challenge and recommend actions

• Clean Air Minnesota v. 2.0

• Reactivate this public private partnership to reduce air emissions

• PM and Ozone Advance

• Join EPA program to credit early actions to avoid nonattainment

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Clean Air Dialogue Recommendations

• Reduce Particulate levels by 20%

• Reduce Ozone levels by 10%

• Avoid nonattainment

• Provide margin of safety

• Reduce health impacts

• Target reductions in most impacted communities

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Public Private Partnership Commitments to date

• $1,380,000 – MPCA Budget

• $1,000,000 - Flint Hills Resources

• City of Minneapolis

• Just getting started

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Summary & Challenges • Standards more stringent & harder to meet

–Focus: NOx, VOCs and direct PM2.5 emission reductions

• Voluntary reduction efforts –avoid high costs of nonattainment

–reap health benefits of cleaner air now

• We’ll continue to reduce permitted smokestack emissions

• Need to work differently to address small sources

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